climate outlook and review january 2016 no 105_final 1

7/25/2019 Climate Outlook and Review January 2016 No 105_Final 1

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University of Southern Queensland | Document title 1

Climate Outlook and ReviewFocus on sugar industryrequirements

Issued 1 January 2016

Roger C Stone

International Centre for

Applied Climate Sciences


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University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS)| Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 3

Figure 1: Forecast rainfall probability values for Queensland - probability of

exceeding the respective long-term median values overall for the total period

January to March 2016. Regions shaded grey have around normal probability values

while areas shaded blue and dark blue have above normal probability values. Yellow

areas have low probability values. Note that these values are relative to normal

rainfall at this particular period of year.


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Figure 2:Probability of maximum temperatures averaged over the three month

period January to March 2016 being above the long-term median for this time of the

year. Regions shaded yellow have below normal maximum temperature probability

values likely due to increased cloud cover with this current three month pattern.


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Figure 3:Probability of minimum temperatures averaged over the three month

period January to March 2016 being above the long-term median for this time of

the year. Regions shaded blue and dark grey have above normal probability values.

Regions shaded yellow have below normal overall probability values for minimum

temperatures.


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Figure 4:Probability of radiation values, averaged over the three month period

January to March 2016 of being above the long-term median for this time of the

year. Regions shaded blue and dark grey have well above normal probability

values. Regions shaded yellow have below normal values.


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Figure 5: Forecast rainfall probability values for Australia for the overall period January to

March 2016 (after Stone, Hammer and Marcussen, 1996). Regions shaded red, yellow

and light grey have low probability values for this period relative to this time of the year.

Regions shaded dark grey and dark blue have above normal probability values.

Figure 6: Monthly SOI values since January 2010 the most recent phase is rapidly

falling.The most recent 30-day average value, to 31 December 2015, is minus

10.09 (-10.09). The SOI has been mostly negative for over 20 months now.


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Longer-term forecasts:

The ECMWF and POAMA models provide useful assessments of longer-term rainfall

probability values for sugar regions (and other agricultural regions).

The ECMWF example suggests very low rainfall probability values for the coming

March to May 2016 period for our regions.

The United States Climate Prediction Center and the Bureau of MeteorologyCAWCR Centre provide useful forecasts of sea-surface temperatures in important

regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean that have relevance for longer-term rainfall

and temperature patterns over Australian sugar regions. An example of a

recent/current forecast of sea-surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region is

provided in Figure 8 below. This figure indicates well above normal sea-surface

temperatures likely to extend into the first half of 2016 but decreasing rapidly

through autumn 2016. Note that this is a particularly volatile time of the year and

forecasts can change rapidly from now through to about May.

Figure 7. Updated ECMWF forecast rainfall probability values for eastern Australia and the

region generally, for the March to May period, 2016. Lower rainfall probability values

(probability of exceeding the long-term median) are indicated by the yellow-beige colours

with the scale provided at the top of the diagram (Courtesy ECMWF, Reading, UK).


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Figure 8.Forecast of sea-surface temperature anomalies (how much they vary from normal) for

the central Equatorial Pacific Ocean for the period through to September, 2016. At this stage this

forecast shows a major shift towards much cooler sea-surface temperatures and the associated

demise of the El Nio pattern in the late southern hemisphere autumn of 2016. Courtesy US

Climate Prediction Center

Detailed rainfall probability values for selected locations.

MossmanJanuary to March 2016

100% chance of exceeding 804mm

90% 1388mm

80% 1458mm

70% 1504mm

60% 1541mm

50% 1773mm

40% 1829mm

30% 1924mm

20% 1936mm

10% 1961mm

Max ever record this pattern at Mossman 1991mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Mossman: 90%


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InnisfailJanuary to March 2016


90% 1596mm

80% 1608mm

70% 1737mm

60% 1773mm

50% 1878mm

40% 2175mm

30% 2271mm

20% 2450mm

10% 2483mmMax ever record this pattern at Innisfail 3103mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Innisfail: 54%

Mareeba January to March 2016


90% 374mm

80% 443mm

70% 470mm

60% 545mm

50% 563mm

40% 728mm

30% 839mm

20% 941mm

10% 1066mm

Max ever record this pattern at Mareeba 1116mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Mareeba: 46%


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InghamJanuary to March 2016


90% 756mm

80% 869mm

70% 1042mm

60% 1163mm

50% 1243mm

40% 1398mm

30% 1587mm

20% 1860mm

10% 2034mmMax ever record this pattern at Ingham 2306mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Ingham: 46%

Ayr(BSC) January to March 2016


90% 268mm

80% 351mm

70% 427mm

60% 648mm

50% 759mm

40% 888mm

30% 928mm

20% 1135mm

10% 1308mm

Max ever recorded this pattern 1326mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median: 61%


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Mackay SugarJanuary to March 2016


90% 594mm

80% 643mm

70% 713mm

60% 765mm

50% 887mm

40% 924mm

30% 1040mm

20% 1076mm

10% 1337mmMax ever recorded this pattern 1928mm


BundabergSugarJanuary to March 2016100% chance of exceeding 181mm

90% 220mm

80% 264mm

70% 348mm

60% 368mm

50% 416mm

40% 481mm30% 574mm

20% 630mm

10% 647mm


Probability of exceeding the long-term median: 36% for this period.


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ChildersJanuary to March 2016


90% 229mm

80% 281mm

70% 322mm

60% 349mm

50% 434mm

40% 513mm

30% 527mm

20% 667mm

10% 782mmMax ever record this pattern at Childers 971mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Childers: 53%

Condong (NSW) Sugar MillJanuary to March 2016


90% 291mm

80% 333mm

70% 399mm

60% 460mm

50% 532mm

40% 626mm

30% 712mm

20% 770mm

10% 896mm




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Recent forecast maps

As these forecasts are issued for a three-month validity on a rolling monthly

basis it has been decided to provide a continuous reference to these forecasts, as

below:

Seasonal climate forecast valid

1 November 2015 to 31 January 2016


1 October to 31 December 2015


1 December 2015 to 29 February 2016


1 January to 31 March 2016


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climate outlook and review january 2016 no 105_final 1

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