climate observations and south florida ecosystem restoration dr. peter ortner atlantic oceanographic...

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Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

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Page 1: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

Climate Observations

and

South Florida Ecosystem Restoration

Dr. Peter Ortner

Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

Page 2: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

90-95% reduction in wading bird population

69 plant and animal species are threatened or endangered

1.7 billion gallons of water per day (on average) are lost through discharge to the ocean

1 million acres of the ecosystem under health advisories for mercury contamination

Over 1.5 million acres infested with invasive, exotic plants

Coral cover declines in Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

An Ecosystem on Life Support:

Page 3: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

What is South Florida Ecosystem Restoration (SFER)?

Primary Goals:

“Get the water right” (quality, quantity, timing, and distribution)Restore and enhance the natural system e.g. species diversity and habitat protection

Transform the built environment e.g., urban growth and resource protection issues.

Cost: – $16 Billion 1999 dollars – 30 Year Implementation – Modeling Horizon 2050

Page 4: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

GOAL

Replumb the C&SF Flood Control Project to restore ecological function to Everglades

Auxiliary Goal

Ensure sufficient clean water for urban and agricultural uses in South Florida

Constraint

Cannot impact current level of flood protection or water supply

Page 5: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

The Plan 68 proposed

features

Remove 240 miles of canals/levees

New technology for water storage

Wastewater reuse

STDA’s

$7.8 billion for construction

$182 million annually to operate

Page 6: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

Changes in Water Flow

Page 7: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

SFER relevant Climate Issues

•Sea Level Rise – Local/Global•SAL/Tropical Storms•AMO/Regional Precipitation•Anthropogenic Desertification•Coral Bleaching/Coral Growth

Page 8: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

Beginning in 1930, the rate of relative sea level rise increased about 8 fold over that of the past 2,000 years. It is presently rising at 30 cm (1’) / 100 years!

0.7 ft in 70 years

tide gauge record - NOS

Page 9: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

• In 1917 the marl ridge of Cape Sable was advertised as the finest agriculture soil.

• Roads and houses were built.

• The freshwater marsh behind was drained for cattle grazing and sugar cane.

Cape Sable

Page 10: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

The marl ridge of Cape Sable is now floodedover 80 times a year by high tides

Page 11: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

What is forecast for the future?

• Given global warming, some predict a 2- to 3-foot global sea level rise by 2100.

• This would add to the 1-foot per century present So.Fla local rise

Max

imum

0 -

3 -

2 -

1 -S

ea L

evel R

ise (

feet)

1990 2100Year

Minimum

Page 12: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Page 13: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Page 14: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Sah

el R

ain

fall I

nd

ex (

JJA

SO

)Sahel Rainfall Index (June-October Means)

1950-2003

Page 15: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

11.2

67.0

8.0

39.1

4.5

12.4

9.4

47.2

5.9

23.8

2.5

5.77.7

34.0

4.6

13.2

0.9 1.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Named Storms Named StormDays

Hurricanes Hurricane Days IntenseHurricanes

IntenseHurricane Days

Nu

mb

er

of

Even

ts

10 Wettest Sahel Years (1949-1990)

Climatology

10 Driest Sahel Years (1949-1990)

Tropical Cyclone Activity vs Sahel Rainfall

Page 16: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

Cool Atlantic

Warm Atlantic

But the expected frequency of major hurricanes that develop in the tropical Atlantic and affect the U.S. is also related to the phase of the Atlantic SST oscillation. They have beeen twice as frequent when the North Atlantic is in its warm phase.

Page 17: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

Moreover U.S. rainfall is correlated with the AMO

Page 18: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

Therefore Lake Okeechobee inflow as well

Page 19: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

Given that X years have elapsed since the last regime shift,what is the risk of a new, reverse shift in less than Y years? Ans. Before CERP is complete, nearly 90%!!!

Page 20: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

AnthropogenicDesertification(10-15% since

1900)

BUT MORE THAN NATURAL CYCLES ARE AT ISSUE

Page 21: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

NOAA mantra: SFER must include the NOAA mantra: SFER must include the coastal ecosystems. They are among coastal ecosystems. They are among the most threatened and the most the most threatened and the most valuable of South Florida’s natural valuable of South Florida’s natural resources.resources.

Page 22: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

FKNMS Coral HealthFKNMS Coral Health

Mean Percent Stony Coral Cover Sanctuary-wide, 1996- 2001

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001Year

Per

cen

t S

tony

Cor

al

Cov

er

Bleaching YearBleaching Year

Bleaching Year/GeorgesBleaching Year/Georges3 Non-Bleaching Years3 Non-Bleaching Years

Bleaching causes: SST, cloud cover, UV exposure. etc.

Page 23: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

: Existing CREW Stations: Planned CREW Stations

Coral Reef Watch – OARCoral Reef Watch – OARin situ monitoring - CREWS

CREOS and Expert system = real-time bleaching warnings

Page 24: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

-50

0

50

100

150

0 100 200 300 400

CO32-, mmol/kg

Cal

cif.

mm

ol/m

2 /d

1200 500 250

pCO2, matm

Rising pCO2 (and %Sat) pose yet another challengeto So. Fla. coral reef recovery

Dissolution

Page 25: Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

CONCLUSION

For SFER to succeed CERP will have to adapt over time to accommodate global climate change, inter-decadal climate variability and the special

regional challenges they pose

Doing so will require the NOAA climate observations and analyses that yield climate

understanding