climate observations and south florida ecosystem restoration dr. peter ortner atlantic oceanographic...
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Climate Observations
and
South Florida Ecosystem Restoration
Dr. Peter Ortner
Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
90-95% reduction in wading bird population
69 plant and animal species are threatened or endangered
1.7 billion gallons of water per day (on average) are lost through discharge to the ocean
1 million acres of the ecosystem under health advisories for mercury contamination
Over 1.5 million acres infested with invasive, exotic plants
Coral cover declines in Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary
An Ecosystem on Life Support:
What is South Florida Ecosystem Restoration (SFER)?
Primary Goals:
“Get the water right” (quality, quantity, timing, and distribution)Restore and enhance the natural system e.g. species diversity and habitat protection
Transform the built environment e.g., urban growth and resource protection issues.
Cost: – $16 Billion 1999 dollars – 30 Year Implementation – Modeling Horizon 2050
GOAL
Replumb the C&SF Flood Control Project to restore ecological function to Everglades
Auxiliary Goal
Ensure sufficient clean water for urban and agricultural uses in South Florida
Constraint
Cannot impact current level of flood protection or water supply
The Plan 68 proposed
features
Remove 240 miles of canals/levees
New technology for water storage
Wastewater reuse
STDA’s
$7.8 billion for construction
$182 million annually to operate
Changes in Water Flow
SFER relevant Climate Issues
•Sea Level Rise – Local/Global•SAL/Tropical Storms•AMO/Regional Precipitation•Anthropogenic Desertification•Coral Bleaching/Coral Growth
Beginning in 1930, the rate of relative sea level rise increased about 8 fold over that of the past 2,000 years. It is presently rising at 30 cm (1’) / 100 years!
0.7 ft in 70 years
tide gauge record - NOS
• In 1917 the marl ridge of Cape Sable was advertised as the finest agriculture soil.
• Roads and houses were built.
• The freshwater marsh behind was drained for cattle grazing and sugar cane.
Cape Sable
The marl ridge of Cape Sable is now floodedover 80 times a year by high tides
What is forecast for the future?
• Given global warming, some predict a 2- to 3-foot global sea level rise by 2100.
• This would add to the 1-foot per century present So.Fla local rise
Max
imum
0 -
3 -
2 -
1 -S
ea L
evel R
ise (
feet)
1990 2100Year
Minimum
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Sah
el R
ain
fall I
nd
ex (
JJA
SO
)Sahel Rainfall Index (June-October Means)
1950-2003
11.2
67.0
8.0
39.1
4.5
12.4
9.4
47.2
5.9
23.8
2.5
5.77.7
34.0
4.6
13.2
0.9 1.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Named Storms Named StormDays
Hurricanes Hurricane Days IntenseHurricanes
IntenseHurricane Days
Nu
mb
er
of
Even
ts
10 Wettest Sahel Years (1949-1990)
Climatology
10 Driest Sahel Years (1949-1990)
Tropical Cyclone Activity vs Sahel Rainfall
Cool Atlantic
Warm Atlantic
But the expected frequency of major hurricanes that develop in the tropical Atlantic and affect the U.S. is also related to the phase of the Atlantic SST oscillation. They have beeen twice as frequent when the North Atlantic is in its warm phase.
Moreover U.S. rainfall is correlated with the AMO
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Therefore Lake Okeechobee inflow as well
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Given that X years have elapsed since the last regime shift,what is the risk of a new, reverse shift in less than Y years? Ans. Before CERP is complete, nearly 90%!!!
AnthropogenicDesertification(10-15% since
1900)
BUT MORE THAN NATURAL CYCLES ARE AT ISSUE
NOAA mantra: SFER must include the NOAA mantra: SFER must include the coastal ecosystems. They are among coastal ecosystems. They are among the most threatened and the most the most threatened and the most valuable of South Florida’s natural valuable of South Florida’s natural resources.resources.
FKNMS Coral HealthFKNMS Coral Health
Mean Percent Stony Coral Cover Sanctuary-wide, 1996- 2001
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001Year
Per
cen
t S
tony
Cor
al
Cov
er
Bleaching YearBleaching Year
Bleaching Year/GeorgesBleaching Year/Georges3 Non-Bleaching Years3 Non-Bleaching Years
Bleaching causes: SST, cloud cover, UV exposure. etc.
: Existing CREW Stations: Planned CREW Stations
Coral Reef Watch – OARCoral Reef Watch – OARin situ monitoring - CREWS
CREOS and Expert system = real-time bleaching warnings
-50
0
50
100
150
0 100 200 300 400
CO32-, mmol/kg
Cal
cif.
mm
ol/m
2 /d
1200 500 250
pCO2, matm
Rising pCO2 (and %Sat) pose yet another challengeto So. Fla. coral reef recovery
Dissolution
CONCLUSION
For SFER to succeed CERP will have to adapt over time to accommodate global climate change, inter-decadal climate variability and the special
regional challenges they pose
Doing so will require the NOAA climate observations and analyses that yield climate
understanding