climate diagnostics bulletin of india - official web … · government of india ... kota 10 bhopal...

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IN TD NIA EMM TE RT AE PO ER DOL LOGICA

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GOVERNMENT OF INDIAMINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE ORGANIZATIONINDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

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NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTRE, PUNE

CLIMATE DIAGNOSTICS BULLETIN OF INDIA

JANUARY 2015

NEAR REAL - TIME ANALYSES

JANUARY - 2015MAIN FEATURES OF THE MONTH

Cold Wave / Cold day conditions

Cold wave conditions prevailed over parts of central India during second and third week of the monthand over parts of peninsular India during the second week. Cold day conditions were observed over theplains of northern India after the second week and continued till the end of the month. Maximum temperature

0was below normal by over 5 C at many stations over the plains during the month. The following table gives thelist of stations and number of days (frequency) for which the maximum temperature was below normal by more than

05 C (compared to 1971-2000 normals) for many days or more during the month. The frequencies marked * are the new record for the station since 1971.

0Similarly, minimum temperature was also below normal by over 5 C at some stations of central and

peninsular India during the month. The following table gives the list of stations and number of days (frequency) for0

which the minimum temperature was below normal by more than 5 C (compared to 1971-2000 normals) for 5 days ormore during the month. The frequencies marked * are the new record for the station since 1971.

Rainfall Features

During the month, rainfall activity over the country as a whole was near normal. Central and adjoiningnorthern and north peninsular parts of the country received excess/normal rainfall while, northern/northwestern,extreme northeastern and south Peninsular parts of the country received deficient/scanty rainfall

During the month, out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, 17 received excess rainfall, 4 received normalrainfall, 11 received deficient rainfall and remaining 4 subdivisions received scanty rainfall. (Fig.1).

Table 1 shows the subdivision wise rainfall statistics (mm) for January 2015.

Fig. 2(a) shows the spatial pattern of rainfall (mm) received during the month. Central, northern and easternparts of the country generally received more than 20 mm of rainfall. Parts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, UttarPradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, coastal Odisha and Arunachal Pradesh received rainfall of the order of 40-80mm. Rainfall over parts of Uttarakhand, West Madhya Pradesh, Coastal Odisha and Andaman & Nicobar Islandsexceeded 120mm.

Fig. 2(b) shows the spatial pattern of rainfall anomaly (mm) during the month. Positive rainfall anomaly over parts of Central and adjoining northern and north peninsular region of the country viz. Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Vidarbha, Telangana, coastal Odisha and Andaman & Nicobar Islands was more than 20 mm. However, magnitude of negative rainfall anomaly over parts of Jammu & Kashmir exceeded 40 mm.

1

STATION NAME FREQUENCY

BAHRAICH 16

BAREILLY 13

GORAKHPUR 11

JHANSI 17*

LUCKNOW 10

VARANASI 16

HISSAR 13

GANGANAGAR 14*

KOTA 10

BHOPAL 9*

GUNA 11

GWALIOR 9

INDORE 10

JABALPUR 11

NOWGAON 13*

SATNA 9*

FREQUENCY IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE

STATION NAME FREQUENCY

BETUL 8*

JAGDALPUR 5*

CHANDRAPUR 11*

HARNAI 14*

NAGPUR 10*

YEOTMAL 10

BIJAPUR 9

CHITRADURGA 5*

FREQUENCY IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURE

Fig. 3(a) shows the area weighted cumulative weekly rainfall percentage departure over the country as awhole for the month. Cumulative weekly rainfall departure became negative since the third week of the month.For January 2015, rainfall for the country as a whole was 89% of its Long Period Average (LPA) value. Fig. 3(b)shows the all India area weighted rainfall series for the month since 1951.

Fig.4.shows the area weighted rainfall series for the month over the four homogeneous regions since 1951.The rainfall for the month was above normal over the Central India (126% of its LPA) and below normal over the southpeninsula (85% of LPA), Northwest India (63% of LPA) and the East & Northeast India (71% of LPA). The rainfall overthe Central India (18 mm) was the third highest since 2001 after the years 2005 (23.9mm) and 2012(21.4 mm).

Table 2 gives the list of stations which received heavy (=6.5 cm) or very heavy (=12.5 cm) rainfall in 24 hoursduring the month.

Standardized Precipitation Index

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is an index used for and is based on onlyprecipitation. This index is negative for drought, and positive for wet conditions. As the dry or wet conditions becomemore severe, the index becomes more negative or positive. Fig 5(a, b, and c) give the SPI values for the month of January 2015, October-2014-January 2015 (4 months cumulative) and June 2014-January 2015 (eight monthscumulative) respectively.

During January, severely wet/extremely wet conditions were observed over parts of East and West UttarPradesh, Bihar, East & West Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Vidarbha, Odisha, Telangana, South Interior Karnataka,Konkan & Goa, Marathwada Assam & Meghalaya, Naga., Mani., Mizo., & Tripura and Andaman & Nicobar Islands while severely dry conditions were observed over parts ofAssam and Jammu & Kashmir.

Cumulative SPI values of the past four months indicate, extremely wet/severely wet conditions over parts ofEast Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu while extremely dry/severely dry conditions wereobserved over parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Naga., Mani., Mizo., & Tripura, Sub-HimalayanWest Bengal & Sikkim, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Jammu & Kashmir, East Rajasthan, CoastalAndhraPradesh and South Interior Karnataka.

Cumulative past eight months SPI values indicate, extremely wet/severely wet conditions over parts ofOdisha, Bihar and North & South Interior Karnataka while extremely dry/severely dry conditions were observed overparts of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nag.,Mani.,Mizo.,Trip,Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim,Jharkhand, Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Har., Chandi., Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu& Kashmir, East Madhya Pradesh, Marathawada, Chattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh state, Tamil Nadu and North InteriorKarnataka.

Pressure & Wind

Figs. 6(a) & 6(b) show the mean sea level pressure & its anomaly respectively. The pressure anomaly waspositive over most parts of the country. The positive pressure anomaly increased northward from 0.5 hPa over thepeninsula to over 2 hPa over northern/northeastern parts of the country.

Figs. 7(a) & 7(b), 8(a) & 8(b) and 9(a) & 9(b)show the mean circulation patterns and its anomalies at 850, 500& 250 hPa levels respectively.

At 850 hPa level, an anomalous cyclonic circulation was observed over the peninsula. At 500 hPalevel, an anomalous anticyclonic circulation was observed over the northwest Arabian sea andneighbourhood. An anomalous deep trough in westerlies prevailed over the extra tropics to the north of thecountry. The two anomalous circulations /trough at 500 hPa level were more marked at 250 hPa level.

Velocity Potential & Stream Function

Figs. 10(a) & 10(b) show the 250 hPa mean Velocity Potential & its anomalies. Similarly, Figs. 11(a) & 11(b)show the mean stream function & its anomalies at 850 hPa level. Negative values are indicated by dashed lines.Anomaly in the velocity potential at 250 hPa level was positive throughout the country, while anomaly in the streamfunction at 850 hPa level was negative throughout the country.

Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)

2OLR anomaly (W/m ) over the Indian region and neighbourhood is shown in Fig 12. OLR anomaly was within

2+ 10 W/m range over most parts of the country and the adjoining seas. However, over parts of extreme south

2peninsula and adjoining seas, positive OLR anomaly exceeding 10 W/m was observed. Over the equatorial Indian

2Ocean region, positive OLR anomaly exceeding 30 to 40 W/m was observed.

measuring drought

2

Temperature

Mean monthly maximum and minimum temperature anomalies are shown in Figs. 13(a) & 13(b) respectively.

Maximum temperature was below normal over the plains of northern and central India and adjoiningnorth peninsula and was above normal over parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, parts of

0northeastern region and the south peninsula. It was below normal by about 3 to 5 C over parts of Punjab, WestRajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Over parts of Jammu & Kashmir

0 0it was above normal by 3 to 4 C and over parts of extreme northeastern region, it was above normal by about 2 to 3 C.

0Minimum temperature was within + 1 C over most parts of the country. However, over parts of Vidarbha

0and adjoining areas, it was below normal by 1 to 2 C and over parts of Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand,

0Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and extreme northeastern region it was above normal by more than 1 C.

Percentage of Warm days/Cold nights

Fig 14(a) &14(b) show the percentage of days when maximum (minimum) temperature was more (less) thanth th

90 (10 ) percentile.

Over parts of coastal Tamil Nadu and Andaman & Nicobar Islands, maximum temperature was greater thanth

90 percentile for more than 40% of the days of the month and over most parts of extreme northeastern region, Jammu& Kashmir and Lakshadweep Islands it exceeded 60%.

thSimilarly, over parts of Vidarbha and adjoining areas, minimum temperature was less than 10 percentile for

more than 40% of the days of the month.

Fig.15 shows the mean temperature for the country as a whole for January since 1971. Five year moving0

average values are also shown. The mean temperature for the month this year (19.65 C) was near normal.

Fig. 16(a) & 16(b) show the maximum and minimum temperature series respectively for the country as awhole and the four homogeneous regions during the month since 1971. Maximum temperature was below normal by

0 0about 2.5 C over the Northwest India and by about 1 C the central India. Similarly, minimum temperature was above

0 0normal by about 1 C over the homogeneous region of south peninsula and by about 0.7 C over the East & NortheastIndia.

Fig.17 shows the daily minimum temperature over five stations of north India viz. Kolkata, Patna, Amritsar,New Delhi and Srinagar during the month.

Low Pressure Systems

No intense low pressure system was formed during the month. However, a well-marked low pressure areawhich formed over the southwest Bay of Bengal during the last month on 25 December, persisted as a low pressure

starea over west central Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha on 1 January

ndand became less marked on 2 . It caused good rainfall for one/two days over these regions.

SST anomaly over the Indian & Pacific Ocean

Fig.18 shows the anomaly in sea surface temperature over the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. Positive0

Sea surface temperature anomaly exceeding 1 C was observed over the North Pacific Ocean while over most parts of0

north Indian Ocean it was near 0.5 C.

SOI and Pacific SST Index

0SOI (Table 3) was negative (-0.8) during the month. SST anomaly below/near 0.5 C was observed over the

Nino regions (except the Nino 4 region) suggesting the weakening of El-Nino conditions.

Fig.19 shows the CPC/IRI consensus ENSO forecast for the coming seasons. Prevalence of El-Ninocondition with the highest probability is expected in the coming one or two more seasons.

3

FIG. 1 : SUB-DIVISIONWISE RAINFALL PERCENTAGE DEPARTURES FOR JANUARY

4

FIG.2(a) : MONTHLY RAINFALL (mm) FIG.2(b) : MONTHLY RAINFALL ANOMALY (mm)(BASED ON 1951-2000 NORMALS)

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7 JAN 14 21 28 31 JAN

(%D

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WEEK ENDINGS

FIG. : RAINFALL OVER THE COUNTRY AS A WHOLE

3 (a) ACCUMULATED PERCENTAGE DEPARTURE OF AREA WEIGHTED WEEKLY

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ACTUAL NORMAL (1951-2000)

FIG. : WEIGHTED RAINFALL OVER THE FOR JANUARY (1951 - 2015)

3 (b) TIME SERIES OF AREA (mm) COUNTRY AS A WHOLE

FIG : AREA WEIGHTED RAINFALL OVER THE FOR JANUARY (1951 - 2015)

4 TIME SERIES OF FOUR HOMOGENEOUS REGIONS

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ACTUAL NORMAL (1951-2000)

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EAST & NORTHEAST INDIA

7

FIG.5 : STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) FOR (a) ONE MONTH (b) FOUR MONTHS (c) EIGHT MONTHS

(a ) JANUARY - 2015

(b) CUMULATIVE OCT. 2014 - JAN. 2015 ( c) CUMULATIVE JUN. 2014 - JAN. 2015

(a) MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP)

(b) MSLP ANOMALY

FIG.6 : MONTHLY MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (hPa)(a) MEAN (b) ANOMALY

(BASED ON 1971-2000 NORMALS)

8

(a) MEAN WIND : 850 hPa

(b) WIND ANOMALY : 850 hPa

FIG. 7 : MONTHLY WIND (m/s) (a) MEAN (b) ANOMALY AT 850 hPa

9

(SOURCE : OPERATIONAL NWP ANALYSIS OF IMD GFS T-574)(ANOMALY IS BASED ON 1959-88 CLIMATOLOGY)



FIG. 8 : MONTHLY WIND (m/s) (a) MEAN (b) ANOMALY AT 500 hPa

10




FIG. 9 : MONTHLY WIND (m/s) (a) MEAN (b) ANOMALY AT 250 hPa(SOURCE : OPERATIONAL NWP ANALYSIS OF IMD GFS T-574)

(ANOMALY IS BASED ON 1959-88 CLIMATOLOGY)

11

(a) VELOCITY POTENTIAL :250 hPa

(b) VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALY : 250 hPa

6 2FIG.10 : VELOCITY POTENTIAL (10 m /s) (a) MEAN (b) ANOMALY AT 250 hPa

12


(a) STREAM FUNCTION : 850 hPa

(b) STREAM FUNCTION ANOMALY : 850 hPa

6 2FIG. 11 : STREAM FUNCTION (10 m /s) (a) MEAN (b) ANOMALY AT 850 hPa

13


(a) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ANOMALY (b) MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ANOMALY

FIG. 13 : MEAN MONTHLY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (°C)(a) MAXIMUM (b) MINIMUM

(BASED ON 1971-2000 NORMALS)

2FIG. 12 : OLR ANOMALY (W/m ) FOR JANUARY 2015

(SOURCE : CDC / NOAA, USA)(BASED ON 1981 - 2010 CLIMATOLOGY)

14

FIG:14 (a) PERCENTAGE OF DAYS WHEN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE > 90TH PERCENTILE

(a) WARM DAYS (b) COLD NIGHTS

(b) PERCENTAGE OF DAYS WHEN MINIMUM TEMPERATURE < 10TH PERCENTILE

15

18.5

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ACTUAL 1971-2000 NORMAL 5 YEAR RUNNING MEAN

FIG. 15 : TIME SERIES OF MEAN TEMPERATURE AVERAGED OVER INDIA (VERTICAL BARS)AND FIVE YEAR RUNNING MEAN (CONTINUOUS LINE) FOR JANUARY (1971 - 2015)

FIG. 16 : TIME SERIES OF TEMPERATURE FOR THE COUNTRY AS A WHOLE AND THE FOUR HOMOGENEOUS REGIONS FOR JANUARY (1971 - 2015) (a) MAXIMUM (b) MINIMUM

(a) (b)

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18

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24

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All India ACTUAL 1971-2000 NORMAL

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All India ACTUAL 1971-2000 NORMAL

FIG. 17 : DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR SOME STATIONS OF NORTH INDIA

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FIG.12:DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ( 0C )RECORDED AT FIVE CITIES OF INDIA

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TE

MP

(0C

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KOLKATAACTUAL MEAN : 14.7 (0C)

NORMAL MEAN : 14.0 (0C)

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TE

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PATNAACTUAL MEAN : 10.7 (0C)NORMAL MEAN : 9.2 (0C)

-1

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TE

MP

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AMRITSARACTUAL MEAN : 4.1 (0C)NORMAL MEAN : 3.6 (0C)

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TE

MP

(0C

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NEW DELHIACTUAL MEAN : 8.4 (0C)

NORMAL MEAN : 7.5 (0C)

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D A T E

SRINAGARACTUAL MEAN : -2.0 (0C)

NORMAL MEAN : -2.2 (0C)

ACTUAL 1971-2000 NORMALS

18

FIG. 18 : SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY (°C)

(SOURCE OF MEAN DATA: INCOIS-GODAS analysis-www.incois.gov.in)(SOURCE OF CLIMATOLOGY DATA: 1981-2010 OISST data-www.esrl.noaa.gov)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

FMA 2015 MAM 2015 AMJ 2015 MJJ 2015 JJA 2015 JAS 2015 ASO 2015 SON 2015 OND 2015

Pro

babili

ty

Time Period

ENSO state based on NINO 3.4 SST AnomalyNeutral ENSO: -0.50C to 0.50C

La Niña

Neutral

El Niño

(Source : http://portal.iri.columbia.edu)

FIG. : CPC / IRI CONSENSUS ENSO FORECASTVERTICAL BARS SHOW PROBABILISTIC ENSO FORECAST

LINES SHOW CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITY

19

TABLE 1

METEOROLOGICAL SUBDIVISIONWISE RAINFALL STATISTICS

FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2015 BASED ON OPERATIONAL DATA

19

ACTUAL NORMAL %

(mm) (mm) DEP

1 A & N ISLANDS 126.8 53.7 136

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH 28.1 50.1 -44

3 ASSAM &MEGHALAYA 13.0 16.4 -21

4 NAG.,MANI.,MIZO.,TRIP 11.0 13.7 -20

5 S.H.W.B.&SIKKIM 14.5 26.6 -46

6 GANGATIC W.B. 12.6 13.5 -7

7 ODISHA 15.1 10.8 40

8 JHARKHAND 11.6 16.1 -28

9 BIHAR 12.7 13.3 -4

10 EAST U.P. 30.1 16.8 79

11 WEST U.P. 31.9 18.2 75

12 UTTARANCHAL 56.2 52.1 8

13 HAR., CHANDI., DELHI 12.4 17.8 -31

14 PUNJAB 17.6 25.2 -30

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH 68.4 97.5 -30

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR 27.0 95.7 -72

17 WEST RAJASTHAN 1.3 2.9 -55

18 EAST RAJASTHAN 9.5 5.6 70

19 WEST M.P. 39.7 8.5 367

20 EAST M.P. 37.0 20.0 85

21 GUJARAT REGION 1.9 0.8 142

22 SAURASHTRA & KUTCH 1.2 0.4 191

23 KONKAN & GOA 1.9 0.1 1754

24 MADHYA M'RASHTRA 1.4 1.1 25

25 MARATHAWADA 10.1 3.8 167

26 VIDARBHA 26.3 10.2 158

27 CHATTISGARH 14.2 10.7 33

28 COASTAL A.P. 1.7 8.3 -79

29 TELANGANA 12.2 5.8 110

30 RAYALASEEMA 1.4 3.0 -54

31 TAMIL NADU 8.3 17.5 -53

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA 1.5 0.7 109

33 N.I.KARNATAKA 2.4 2.2 8

34 S.I.KARNATAKA 1.7 1.4 23

35 KERALA 3.1 8.7 -65

36 LAKSHADWEEP 2.2 20.8 -89

MET. SUBDIVISION

ATMOSPHERIC AND SST INDEX VALUES FOR THE RECENT 12 MONTHS.

ATMOSPHERIC INDICES ARE STANDARDIZED BY MEAN ANNUAL STANDARD

DEVIATION EXCEPT FOR THE TAHITI AND DARWIN SLP ANOMALIES WHICH ARE

IN hPa.SST INDICES(ANOMALIES AND MEAN)ARE IN DEGREE CELCIUS

TABLE 3

TABLE 2

STATIONS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY(= 12.5 cm) RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS DURING JANUARY 2015

HEAVY(= 6.5 cm) OR VERY

20

RAINFALL

(cm)

BHAINSDEHI WEST MADHYA PRADESH 14

MARANDAHALLI TAMIL NADU & PUDUCHHERY 9

CHIKHALDA VIDARBHA 8

KAKATPUR ODISHA 17

MAIHAR EAST MADHYA PRADESH 11

BHAINSDEHI WEST MADHYA PRADESH 9

K. PARAMATHY TAMIL NADU & PUDUCHHERY 7

4 BELAGUNTHA ARG ODISHA 7

17 PORT BLAIR ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS 7

22 DHUNDI HIMACHAL PRADESH 9

DATE STATION NAME NAME OF SUBDIVISION

1

2

Tahiti SLP

minus

Darwin SLP

Month Tahiti Darwin SOI Anomaly Mean Anomaly Mean Anomaly Mean Anomaly Mean

JAN 15 -1.7 -0.2 -0.8 -0.4 24.1 0.4 26.0 0.5 27.1 0.9 29.2

DEC 14 -0.9 0.1 -0.6 0.1 22.9 0.8 25.9 0.8 27.4 0.9 29.4

NOV 14 -0.6 1.0 -0.9 0.7 22.3 0.9 25.9 0.9 27.5 0.9 29.5

OCT 14 -0.3 0.8 -0.6 0.8 21.5 0.7 25.6 0.5 27.2 0.6 29.3

SEP 14 -0.2 1.1 -0.7 1.3 21.9 0.5 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.5 29.1

AUG14 -0.2 1.1 -0.7 1.3 21.9 0.5 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.5 29.1

JUL14 0.2 0.5 -0.2 1.4 23.0 0.7 26.3 0.2 27.4 0.3 29.1

JUN14 -0.2 -0.4 0.2 1.8 24.6 0.9 27.4 0.5 28.1 0.6 29.5

MAY14 1.2 0.2 0.5 1.3 25.6 0.6 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.8 29.6

APR 14 0.5 -1.0 0.8 -0.4 25.2 0.2 27.7 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.1

MAR 14 -1.0 0.8 -0.9 -0.8 25.9 -0.2 26.9 -0.2 27.0 0.5 28.7

FEB14 -0.8 -0.8 0.1 -0.8 25.4 -0.8 25.6 -0.6 26.2 0.3 28.4

900W - 80

0W 150

0W - 90

0W 170

0W - 120

0W 160

0E - 150

0W

SLP ANOMALIES

PACIFIC SST

NINO 1+2 NINO 3 NINO 3.4 NINO 4

00

- 100S 5

0N - 5

0S 5

0N - 5

0S 5

0N - 5

0S

CLIMATE DIAGNOSTICSBULLETIN OF INDIA

ISSUE No. 227

DESIGNED & PRINTED ATCENTRAL PRINTING UNIT,

OFFICE OF THE ADDITIONAL DIRECTOR GENERALOF METEOROLOGY (RESEARCH),PUNE

ISSUED BYNATIONAL CLIMATE CENTRE

OFFICE OF THE ADDITIONAL DIRECTOR GENERALOF METEOROLOGY (RESEARCH)

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENTPUNE - 411 005

Compiled & prepared under the supervision of

Dr. A.K. SrivastavaDr. P. Guhathakurta

(Website : http://www.imdpune.gov.in)

climate diagnostics bulletin of india - official web … · government of india ... kota 10 bhopal...

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