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REGIONAL EXPERT ADVISORY WORKSHOP REPORT ‐ 01 MAR 2011 VIENTIANE, LAO PDR

CLIMATE CHANGE LIVELIHOOD

For MRC, By ICEM | IUCN | WorldFish | SEA STAR RC

Climate Change, Wetlands and Livelihoods

Dr Marie-Caroline Badjeck

partnership excellence growth

Dr. Marie Caroline BadjeckWorldFish Center

1st March 2011, Regional Workshop MCR/ICEM, Vientiane, Cambodia

Four research themes:1. Diagnosing vulnerability2. Understanding current coping mechanism

and adaptive responses

Climate Change Research at the WFC

p p3. Contributing to mitigation 4. Building the capacity to respond and adapt

at different scales

CGIAR research programs (CRPs)• CRP 1.3 => Harnessing the development

FAO


g ppotential of aquatic agricultural systems (AAS) for the poor and vulnerable

• CRP 7 => Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security




Climate Change Impacts and Livelihoods: Concepts and Examples


Effects on:Impacts on:

Production Ecology

Species composition Production & yieldDistribution shifts of

i d

GLOBALWARMING

CO2

Sea level rise /

CC impacts on wetlands: multiple pathways

Aquatic agricultural syst.operations

CommunitiesLivelihoods

species and ecosystem boundaries

Sea level rise / Salinity intrusion

Rainfall

River flows

Lake levels

Thermal structure

Safety & efficiency InfrastructureChanges to seasonal timing

Loss/damage to assetsRisk to health & life


LivelihoodsExtreme events

Temperature

Risk to health & lifeDisplacement & conflict

Wider society & Economy

Adaptation & mitigation costsMarkets, water allocation

Adapted from Badjeck, et al 2010 Marine Policy




Livelihoods: set of activities and capital assets required for means of living (Chambers & Conway, 1992)

SLA framework used in HH vulnerability assessment to climate change (i.e. Nelson 2010)

Livelihoods

Human Capital

Social Capital

HH and IndvidualsNatural Capital


Physical Capital

HH and Indviduals

Financial Capital

Livelihoods indicators

•Han et al 2009 use SLA framework to measure vulnerability to CC and

i bilit i M bi i


variability in Mozambique using a indicator-based approach

•Assets aggregated into the 3 elements of vulnerability (IPCC)




Wetlands and ecosystem services

Climate regulation (GHGs sink)Flood control, storm protection etc.

Food Fiber and fuel etcNutrient cycling

Soil formation etc.

partnership excellence growthAdapted Dugan et al 2010 and IUCN 2009

RecreationalAesthetic etc.

Wetlands, ecosystem services and livelihoods

Climate Change


IUCN/ODG Integrated Wetland Assessment Framework (2009)

Change




• Provisioning service of food disrupted in the Mekong River Delta under a 50 cm scenario

Provisioning services: salinity intrusion and yields

• Inland catfish aquaculture and rice culture sensitive to changes in salinity in the MRD but opportunity for shrimp aquaculture?


=> SLA: Impact on natural capital, reduced or increased yields

Increment of maximum salinity intrusion (ppt) during the dry season for 50-cm sea level rise scenario (in Kam et al 2010, adapted from SIWRP, 2009)

Provisioning services: water level/flow and yields• Close relationships between floodplain area, river flow and lake surface area

and total fish production (Welcomme, 2001)

• In Malawi’s, combination of a series of droughts and conversion of fringing wetlands for rice cultivation are putting severe pressures on water resources and fisheries (Allison et al 2007). The “direct” effect of CC on ecosystems and livelihoods enhanced


Lake Chilwa. In Dugan et al 2010 adapted from Allison et al 2007 and Njaya 2002




Provisioning services: water level/flow and yields•By 2030, climate change may raise the wet season flood level of the Tonle Sap lake by 2.3 meters (Eastham et al. 2008), extending feeding grounds and g g gencouraging fish production

•Dams to be developed in the Mekong Basin will store water during the monsoon and thus will decrease wet season flood levels


In Baran et al 2009

=> The net result of these two processes is unknown

• Storm and severe weather events can destroy or severely-damage productive and non-productive physical assets such as landing and aquaculture sites, gears, roads etc.

• Storms can impact financial assets (use of credits and savings to smooth ti ) d h d i l it l l f li

Regulating services: storm protection

consumption) and human and social capital => loss of lives, displacement

• Can be exacerbated in areas with wetland loss


Aquaculture area production affected due to typhoons, tropical storms and tropical depressions, 1989-2008 in Vietnam (Kam et al, 2010)




“Where is the river? Tourists are complaining…..”

This morning Mekong Beau Rivage Hotel Manager

Cultural services: tourism/aesthetic

This morning. Mekong Beau Rivage Hotel Manager


Adaptation mechanisms: Concepts and Examples





• Adaptive strategies can either be a process, action or outcome in a system in order to better adjust, cope and manage changing conditions (Smit and Wandel, 2006) and ultimately enhance resilience

Adaptation mechanisms

resilience.

• Adaptation involves both:

– building adaptive capacity => creating the information, supportive social structures and supportive governance (that are needed as a foundation for delivering adaptation actions


– implementing adaptation decisions, i.e. transforming that capacity into action to reduce vulnerability or take advantage of opportunities (Daw et al 2009, UKCIP)

Can be categorized by:

• Intent: timing relative to climate change (proactive, reactive)• Temporal (short-term, long-term)• Spatial (local regional) => most successful adaptation efforts are

Adaptation mechanisms: Typology

Spatial (local, regional) > most successful adaptation efforts are likely to be local as farmers respond to the localized manifestations of emerging climate risks (Heltberg et al., 2009)

UKCIP/IPCC typology

• Autonomous adaptationPl d d i


• Planned adaptation• No/low regret• Win-win (cost-effectiveness and multiple benefits)• Flexible adaptive management




Farm/HH level – autonomous/reactive• Farmers raising dykes and bunds in aquaculture systems• Costs for raising dykes under the CC estimated for incremental increases in

bund height of catfish ponds to required heights from consideration of the expected increments in flooding depth revealed from GIS analysis in the MRD (Kam et al 2010)MRD (Kam et al 2010)


Farm/HH level – autonomous/reactive

Diversified and flexible livelihood systems

• Occupational mobility in response to climate variability is also a common practice in fishing communities. In Lake Chad fishing families diversify into farming while droughts affecting agriculture in Africa may encourage more fishing activity (Sarch and Allison 2000, Conway et al 2000)

• Migration: role of remittance in smoothing financial risk, diversification through geographical mobility in Vietnam (rural/urban) (UNEP 2009)


(UNEP 2009)

• “Specialization trap”? (Coulthard 2008, Badjeck et al 2010)




No/Low regret

Building the livelihood platform to reduce vulnerability:

• Addressing fundamental problems of wetland management and the underlying factors that cause vulnerabilityy g y

• Access to financial risk transfer mechanisms and social protection => Private or public insurance schemes could be put into place to avoid livelihood disruption arising from limited access to credit and loans to re-build the asset base in the aftermath of climatic disturbances (Badjeck et al 2010)


Synergies with mitigation – “win-win”/planned

• Coastal wetland restoration/conservation => costal protection and improved water quality

• Carbon offsets as payments for mangrove ecosystem services in Solomon Islands (WorldFish - AUSAID)

• Investigating aquaculture potential:


organic shrimp farming?




Thank You!

M Badjeck@cgiar [email protected]


Climate change impacts

LowVery low

ModerateHighNo data


Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on thefisheries sector. Out of 132 countries Vietnam (27) and Cambodia (30)are amongst the most vulnerable. Allison et al. (2009) Fish and Fisheries




Provisioning services: water level/flow and yields

partnership excellence growthLake Chad. In Dugan et al 2010 adapted from UNEP 2008

• im to identify a range of adaptation options that can be implemented individually or collectively. These may be:

• No-regrets options that will deliver benefits that exceed their costs, whatever the extent of climate change; Low-regrets options that would yield large benefits for relatively low costs and seek to maximise the return on investment when certainty of the associated risks is low;

• Win-win options that enhance your adaptive capacity whilst also contributing to the achievement of other social, environmental or economic outcomes.

• Flexible or adaptive management options which will enable you to put in place incremental adaptation options.


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