Vulnerability

Amanda Bourne, Dr Camila Donatti, Dr Stephen Holness

& Professor Guy Midgley

September 2012

climate change

for the Namakwa District Municipality Assessment

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Vulnerability

Amanda Bourne, Dr Camila Donatti, Dr Stephen Holness

& Professor Guy Midgley

September 2012

climate change

for the Namakwa District Municipality Assesment

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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SUMMARYOFTHECLIMATECHANGEHAZARDSFORTHENAMAKWADISTRICT

MUNICIPALITY

A statistical approach was developed toincorporate a wide range of possible temperatureandrainfallscenarios.Highestprojectedtemperatureincreases and largest projected rainfall decreaseswere combined to generate a ‘high‐risk’ or ‘worstcase’scenario,andvice‐versafora‘low‐risk’or‘bestcase’ scenario. Median projected changes werecombined to create an intermediate scenario. Thescenariosdefine the range of possibility rather thansuggesting the most likely future climate changeevents.

The study was based on medium term data(for2050),acompromisebetweentheuncertaintyofvery long time horizon data (2100) and the verysmall changes predicted by shorter duration data(e.g. 2020). Itmay be useful to consider theworstcase scenario for 2050 as representing the likelyintermediatecasescenarioin2100.

Currently, keyecosystemgoodsand servicesprovided by the natural environment includefreshwater, fodder for grazing, natural beauty,mineralwealth,andvariouscoastalresources.Theseare highly likely to be impacted by the climatechangesdiscussedbelow.

CHANGESINTEMPERATURES

In all three scenarios, average annualtemperatures are predicted to increase by 2050,whencomparedtothecurrentconditions.Figures3‐6 show the current and future annual averagetemperatureundereachscenario.

CHANGESINRAINFALLPATTERNS

There is greater uncertainty around changesin rainfall patterns.Thebest case scenario indicatessmall increases in rainfall in certain areas. Theintermediate and worst case scenarios predict areduction in rainfall across the NDM. The mostdramatic reductions occur in present‐day higherrainfall areas. Figures 7‐10 show the current andfutureannualaveragerainfallforeachscenario.

STORMSURGES

The intensity and frequency of stormsappears tobe increasing, but this hasnotbeenwell

documented. Although there have been devastatingstorms along the Namakwa coast, the steep, rockycoastline is less sensitive to impacts from stormsurgesthanmoreshallowsandyshores.

RISINGSEALEVEL

Sea‐level is rising slowly around the SouthAfricancoastbybetween1.47mmand2.74mmperyear. Rocky coastlines such as the Namakwa coastare,however,lessvulnerabletoerosionanddamageasaresultofthisthansandiershores.

COASTALFOG

Fog is a poorly understood feature of theSouthern African climate. It has also been poorlymonitored apart from recording the number of fogdays at a handful of coastal sites. How far fogpenetrates inland, and how frequently, is unknown.Climatemodelsforfuturescenariodevelopmenthavenotyetincludedfogpatterns.Furthermore,therearefew studies of fog as a water input supportingbiologicalactivityandevidenceforfogusebyplantsisverylimited.

ATMOSPHERICCARBONDIOXIDEOf concern nationally is the potential for an

increase atmospheric CO2 to increase productivityandchangethecompositionoftheNDM’svegetation.Anincreaseingrassescouldthreatenslower‐growingand lesscompetitivesucculent flora. Increasedgrassbiomass, being a flammable fuel source, could alsointroducewildfireasanewprocess.RecentworkatSANBI has found that projected climate changetrendsarelikelytoreduceandevenreversetherateof invasionby introducedgrass species in theNDM.Therefore,thereisa lowlikelihoodofgrassbiomassincrease in the Namakwa region as a result of CO2fertilisation.

Figure3:CurrentannualaveragetemperaturefortheNDM

Figure4:AnnualaveragetemperaturefortheNDMfor2050underabestcasescenario,withsmallestpredictedincreasesintemperature

Figure5:AnnualaveragetemperaturefortheNDMfor2050underanintermediatescenario:middleoftherange(median)predictedincreasesintemperature

Figure6:AnnualaveragetemperaturefortheNDMfor2050underaworstcasescenario:greatestpredictedincreasesintemperature

Figure7:CurrentannualaveragerainfallfortheNDM

Figure8:annualaverageprecipitationfortheNDMfor2050undera"bestcase"scenario,withsmallestpredictedincreasesintemperature,andrainfallvaluesfromthe90thpercentileofvaluespredictedbymodels.

Figure9:AnnualaverageprecipitationfortheNDMfor2050underanintermediatescenario:middleoftherange(median)predictedincreasesintemperatureandchangesinrainfall.

Figure 10: Annual average precipitation for theNDM for 2050 under aworst case scenario: greatest predictedincreasesintemperatureandchangesinrainfall.

BIODIVERSITYANDECOSYSTEMVULNERABILITYTOCLIMATE

CHANGEINTHENAMAKWADISTRICTMUNICIPALITY

The Succulent Karoo, located largelyin the NDM, is a recognised GlobalBiodiversity Hotspot. With more than 6000plant species, 250 bird species, 78 differentmammals, 132 species of reptile andamphibian, many insect species, andextraordinary levels of plant endemism, theSucculent Karoo is one of only two aridbiodiversityhotspotsintheworld.Theregionis extremely water scarce, with large areasregularlyreceivinglessthan100mm/year.

Evidencesuggestsahistoricallystablearid climate, dating back to the Cretaceous(Goudie and Eckhart, 1999), contributing tospeciesdiversification (MidgleyandThuiller,2007:4).Consideringthelongstableperiodinwhich Succulent Karoo plants evolved, thebiome may be particularly sensitive tosuddenanddramaticclimaticchanges.Othersbelieve that the current annual cycles ofextreme climatic variation, aridity, heat, andcold that occur naturally make the systeminherently more resilient. Either way, it isagreed that aprecautionaryprinciple shouldbefollowedtomaximizeresiliencetoclimatechange.

Water scarcity will likely beexacerbated by climate change due toprojectedrisingtemperaturesandchangesinrainfall patterns. This is likely to negativelyaffect biomass production and livestockproductivity, and could curtail the growingtourism and natural products industries,given that those coreeconomicactivitiesarevery natural resource dependent. Protectionofkeyecosystemservicessuchaswaterwillbeacriticaladaptationaction.

RE‐ASSESSINGCLIMATECHANGERISKATBIOMESCALE

SouthAfricahasninebiomes, fourofwhicharefoundwithintheNamakwaDistrict,namely Succulent Karoo, Nama‐Karoo,

Fynbos and Desert. Each biome has acharacteristic ‘climateenvelope’,arangeandpattern of temperature and rainfall values,within which it occurs. Scientificunderstanding of the influence of climate onvegetation typesdictates that, as the climatechanges,anareathatiscurrentlyclimaticallysuited to one biome might becomeclimatically suited to another. This wouldcause climate‐related stress for somecomponentsofthebiome.

Statistical modelling was used todevelop a biome distribution model whichpredicts the distribution of biomesbased onclimate data to 2050. Some key outcomes ofthemodelingare:

Areas with a climate envelope

characteristic of Succulent Karoo largelypersistunderallscenarios.

TheclimateenvelopefoundintheNama‐KarooareaoftheNDMislikelytoremainstable under the best case andintermediate scenarios, but changes to aDesert climate envelope in the northundertheworstcasescenario.

Under the best case scenario, the coreportions of the Fynbos, typically locatedin themountainous areas, remainwithinthe current biome envelope. The islandsofFynbosfoundintheNDMarelikelytocome under increasing stress in higherriskscenarios,withtheclimateenvelopesin these areas becoming more likeSucculentKaroo.

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ECOLOGICALVULNERABILITY

Ecological vulnerability index: medium‐high(3.85)

Climatechangeislikelytohaveanimpactonbiomestability in the region,but the speciesrichSucculentKarooholdsrelativelystableto2050, providing an opportunity for EbA andecosystem conservation. Climate impactsinteract with existing pressures in thelandscape, such as over‐grazing, over‐abstraction of groundwater, andunsustainable mining practices. These willalso be superimposed on an alreadychallengingnaturalenvironmentfraughtwithnatural hazards and climate and waterrelatedchallenges.

SOCIOECONOMICVULNERABILITY

Socio economic vulnerability index:medium‐high(3.8).The NDM is large and sparsely populated.This limits the effective delivery of basicservices,suchashealthcare.TheDistricthasa challenging natural environment andlimited economic opportunities for themajorityofthepopulation.Thelocaleconomyis natural resource based and dependent onlivestock farming and a declining miningsector. Given the agricultural basis of theeconomy, climate change is likely to impactnegatively on productivity and livelihoods,exacerbatedbythehighlevelsofpovertyandlowlevelsofeducation.

INSTITUTIONALVULNERABILITY

Institutional vulnerability index: Medium(3)

South Africa has strong institutionsand powerful environmental legislation. TheNDM too has well‐developed biodiversitymanagement plans. There are manyimplementation challenges at the local level,however. There is extremely limited staff

capacity and no funds at the local level forenvironmental work of any kind. Likewise,while climate change and adaptation are onthe agenda for many local politicians andofficials,therearenoofficialbodiesdedicatedtoadaptingtoclimatechange.

HOWTOUSETHISREPORT

PRIORITISATION

Two prioritisation tools weredeveloped as part of the vulnerabilityassessment. The EbA priority areas map(Figure15)wasdevelopedtosupportspatialplanningforecosystembasedclimatechangeresponse in the NDM and to prioritise sitesfor EbA research and implementation to themaximumbenefit of theNDM’s communitiesand biodiversity. The vulnerability index(Table 1) was developed to highlight keyindicators and levels of climate vulnerabilityintheNDMinordertoinformpriorityactionsand the allocation of resources to mosteffectivelyreducevulnerabilitylocally.

EBAPRIORITYAREAS

The EbA priority areas map isintended to guide land‐use planning andpromote sustainable local economicdevelopment. It is a spatial tool prioritisinglocationsintheNDMthatareboththreatenedby the impacts of climate change and arelikely to respondwell to EbA approaches interms of delivering the ecosystems servicesand functions that will help the Districtrespondeffectivelytoclimatechange.

The darker areas on the map arepriority areas and should be tackled firstwhere budgets or capacity are limited inordertoensurethemaximumEbAbenefitfortheNDM.

FIGURE15:EbAPriorityAreasMap

This innovative methodology wasdeveloped for the NDM climate changevulnerability assessment. It can now bereplicatedinotherDistrictsinSouthAfricaortofacilitateprovincialprioritisation.

VULNERABILITYINDEX

Thesummaryindexbelowprovidesageneral indication of vulnerabilities for theNamakwa District based on the parametersselected.

Table 1: Overall Climate ChangeVulnerability for the Namakwa DistrictMunicipality

EcologicalVulnerability 3.85

Socio‐economicVulnerability 3.8

InstitutionalVulnerability 3

OverallVulnerabilityIndex 3.5

TheNDMhasanoverallvulnerabilityscore of 3.5. This translates asmedium‐highoverallvulnerability.

In assessing Ecological, Socio‐Economic, and Institutional Vulnerability,index values for various parameters andindicators were computed to derive thesummaryindexprovidedhere.Theindicatorsunder each category can be used for

prioritising action and budget allocation forreducedvulnerabilitytoclimatechangeintheDistrict.Specifictargetscanbedevelopedforeachindicatordependingonadepartmentorstakeholder’s particular mandate andavailable resources. Achievements can bemeasured against each of these indicatorsover time. This assessment should berepeatedandupdatedevery5yearstoassessprogress made and to facilitate adaptivemanagementoftheclimatechangechallenge.

More detail is available in the fulltechnicalreport.

RECOMMENDATIONS

A central recommendation of thisreportistofocusonreducingsocio‐economicand institutional vulnerabilities as theprimarymethod for building local resilienceto climate change. As local livelihoods areinextricably linked to and reliant onfunctioning natural systems, we recommendan ecosystem services and ecosystem‐basedadaptation approach in addressing coresocio‐economicvulnerabilities.Effortmustbemade to build local institutional capacity torespond effectively to climate change.Critically, this institutional capacity must besupported with appropriate resourcesallocations to achieve climate adaptationgoals and implement EbA activities at thenecessaryscale.

Although we are advocatingadaptation in this report, it isessential tobefamiliar with the worst case scenario forclimate change for the region and to lobbystrongly, now, for extensive mitigationtowardsasafeglobaltemperaturegoal.

ECOLOGICAL

Use the EbA priority areas map toguide and inform climate changeadaptationplanningintheNDM.

Manage and restore wetlands andriver corridors effectively forbiological diversity, the provision ofpotable water, fodder for grazinganimals, and the prevention of soilerosion.

Protect groundwater resources andrestore wetlands and terrestrialvegetation cover to securegroundwaterrecharge

Conservewatercatchmentsandothercritical biodiversity areas for keyecosystems services delivery and tobuildresiliencetoclimatechange

Monitor species and ecosystemresponsestoachangingclimate.

Action to reduce ecological vulnerabilitycould include biodiversity stewardship,expanded protected areas, or expandedpublic works programmes such as WorkingforWetlandsorWorkingforWater.

SOCIO‐ECONOMIC

Locate adaptation to climate changewithin the broader developmentalcontext.

InformaboutthebasisthattheNDM’sbiodiversity provides for economicgrowthanddevelopment

Demonstrate successes in thedevelopment of alternative nature‐basedlivelihoods.

Encourageparticipatoryprocesses Build local capacity to respond to

climatechangeEffectively reducing socio‐economicvulnerability to climate change relies onrecognising the vital ties between people’slivelihoods and security and their naturalenvironment,andactingtoensurethatthisisas sustainable as possible. It also rests onreducing those indicators which causevulnerability more generally – poverty,

unemployment, lack of sufficient qualityeducation, or a lack of sustainable economicopportunities.

INSTITUTIONAL

Createastrongadaptationcommitteeinlocalgovernment

IntegrateidentifiedEbApriorityareasinto existing related programmesacrossalllevelsofgovernment

Demonstrate the contribution of EbAapproaches to job creation andeconomicgrowth

Collaborate closely with partners toavoid duplication and shareinformation

Strengthen the capacity of localinstitutionstoimplementEbA

Strong, organised, well‐informed, well‐prepared, and well‐funded localinstitutionswillensurethemosteffectivepossible adaptation response. Thecontextofclimatechangevulnerability iscritical, including multiple local non‐climate stressors. Strong community‐basedinstitutionsandlocaladvocatescanensure that relevant local knowledge isincorporated into EbA practices. Stronginstitutionsreferasmuchtoconditionsinthe enabling environment as to localleadership and implementers on theground.

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