climate change vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning to in prairie forests
DESCRIPTION
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning to in Prairie Forests. Mark Johnston and Elaine Qualtiere Saskatchewan Research Council March 15 2011. General areas of vulnerability. Changes in species distributions Fire activity area burned frequency and intensity - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
smart science solutions™
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning to in Prairie Forests
Mark Johnston and Elaine QualtiereSaskatchewan Research Council
March 15 2011
smart science solutions™
General areas of vulnerability• Changes in species distributions
• Fire activity
• area burned
• frequency and intensity
• Insect outbreaks
• endemic species (e.g. SBW, FTC)
• exotics (e.g. EAB, MPB)
• Productivity
• Operations
• season of frozen ground
smart science solutions™
CFS Plant Hardiness Databasehttp://planthardiness.gc.ca/ph_futurehabitat.pl?lang=en
Based on Climatic Suitability
Jack Pine: currently suitable climate(dots indicate observed occurrence)
Jack Pine: suitability 2050s HADCM3
smart science solutions™
Area Burned for Western Canada (BC to MB)Source: Balshi et al., Global Change Biology 15: 578–600, 2009
By 2050: 2X increase
By 2100: 3-5X increase
Now
smart science solutions™
Number of Fires
Lightning-caused 2030 Lightning-caused 2090
Source: Wotton et al. 2010 International Journal of Wildland Fire 19: 253–271
- Climate data used to calculate FWI
- Statistical relationship between FWI and fire activity
- Future data from CGCM1
smart science solutions™
HFI map for Duck Mountains, prepared for LP’s Forest Management Plan, 2006
• Analysis using CFS Spatial Fire Management System (new version soon!)
• Climate data from CRCM
• Fuel types re-classified from LP forest inventory
• Pink and red indicate fuel types where fire will be difficult to suppress
• Did similar analysis for Mistik FMA in NW SK
smart science solutions™
Suppression difficult
Suppression impossible
smart science solutions™
• Endemic species outbreaks likely to increase but details are poorly understood
• Exotics also likely to increase but impacts greater because no resistance
• New MPB scenarios seem to be leaning toward poor winter survival, the apocalypse may be avoided!
Insects
smart science solutions™
Adaptive Seasonality Cold Survival
MPB“…probability of range expansion… is low to moderate”
Bentz et al., BioScience 2010, 60:602-612
smart science solutions™Productivity: Fort a la Corne Forest, SK
smart science solutions™
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
TA 2050 TA 2050D JP 2050 JP2 2050D WS 2050 WS 2050D
Rel
ativ
e S
tem
NP
PProductivity: Mistik FMA, NW SK
Ecosystem Model: PnETClimate Model: CRCM V 3.6D = 2001-2002 drought scenario
smart science solutions™
Swift Current
Estevan
smart science solutions™
Source: Lempriere et al., The Importance of Forest Sector Adaptation to Climate Change, CFS Information Report NOR-X-416, 2008
Values of Hogg’s Climate Moisture Index based on CGCM2-A2
smart science solutions™From Hogg & Bernier 2005. The Forestry Chronicle 81: 675-682
Projected increase in forested areas affected by drought stress under climate change
smart science solutions™
Shorter operating season on frozen ground
What the…?
smart science solutions™
#$%*&@!
smart science solutions™
CRCM, Duck Mountains
smart science solutions™
Mistik FMAData from CRCM V 3.6
smart science solutions™
• Need to examine organization’s adaptive capacity:
– Awareness – Technology availability– Resources– Institutions– Human capital– Social capital– Risk management– Information management
Human Dimension
smart science solutions™
• Policy assessment – does current policy value
– Innovation
– Flexibility
– Looking forward
• Does policy welcome new thinking from outside, e.g. industry, producers?
• Can policy be changed easily when required?
Human Dimension
smart science solutions™
• Based on expert opinion and what has worked in the past
• Screen according to future scenarios
• Prioritize using e.g. CCFM Criteria and Indicators or other benchmarks for SFM
Adaptation Options
smart science solutions™
LANDIS-II: Forest Landscape Simulator
FORESTED LANDSCAPE
WINDTHROW
FIRE
HARVESTING
INSECTS / DISEASE
SPATIALLY INTERACTIVE PROCESSES
DISPERSALTREE / SHRUB
ESTABLISHMENT
MORTALITY
NON-SPATIAL COMMUNITYPROCESSES
GROWTH
smart science solutions™
LANDIS-II Philosophy: Homogeneity
LANDIS assumes homogeneity at multiple scales:
Sites = single cells
Ecoregions = 1 or more cells, typically defined by climate and soils. Need not be contiguous.
LandscapeSites
Ecoregions
smart science solutions™
Soil Carbon & Nitrogen
WindHarvest
Fire
Cohort Biomass
Insects
Spatially Interactive Landscape
LANDIS-II Philosophy: Spatially Dynamic
Disturbances overlap in space
and time.
smart science solutions™
LANDIS-IISuccession Extensions
Global Circulation
Model LANDIS-IIForest
Successionand Disturbance
ANPPGrowth Model
PEST
Regen-erationModel
User Choice
We will use PnET
Probability of Establishment
smart science solutions™
Case Studies• Island Forests in SK
– Focus on interacting sources of vulnerability on sensitive landscapes
– Fire, insects, drought, productivity
• Alberta Case Study
– Lit review to support provincial vulnerability assessment
– Possibility of more work next year
• Manitoba Case Study
– Tree ring analysis to link tree growth and climate variables (with University of Winnipeg)