Climate Change Vulnerability, Adaptation and Mitigation of Livestock Systems in Kenya

04/20/23

1

Nanyingi M O, Kiama S G, Thumbi S M, Muchemi G M and Bett B

8th Biennial Scientific Conference (FVM) and the 46th Annual Scientific Conference (KVA), Safari Park Hotel, Nairobi

25th April 2012 (12.30pm)

THEME: CLIMATE CHANGE AND ONE HEALTH

2

1.0 Climate change impacts on livestock

04/20/23 © Nanyingi 2012

In 2006 and 2007, PH Burden of RVF OB

resulted in 3.4 DALYs per 1000 people and household costs of about Ksh 10,000

(USD120)

3%GDP loss$500M/(2012)$1-2 B(2030)

3

1.2 Vulnerability and Adaptive capacity

04/20/23

1. Biophysical: The sensitivity of the natural environment to an exposure to a hazard 2. Social: sensitivity of the human environment to the exposure.

Impact is a function of hazard exposure and both types of vulnerability

Vincent (2004)

Climate vulnerability, coping range and adaptive capacity

Groundwater? Soil degradation

Literacy

mortality

BiophysicalSocial:

Technological??

© Nanyingi 2012

4

To effectively manage vulnerability: Adaptation is to reduce sensitivity and Mitigation to reduce the magnitude of climate change impact.

Adaptation research can help inform decisions by farmers and policy makers on implications over a range of timeframes to effectively integrate mitigation mechanisms

Vulnerability analyses can guide governments of the investment or disinvestment decisions currently or in the near future in relation to climate-sensitive aspects.

Translating adaptation options into mitigation requires

consideration of a more comprehensive risk management /vulnerability framework that allows exploration of quantified scenarios.

1.3 Adaptation and Mitigation ?

© Nanyingi 2012

Howden et al 2007

04/20/23

5

Nomadic pastoralism in search of water and pastures

Designated community watering points or buffer grazing areas

Traditional Early Warning Systems (TEWS)

Use of emergency fodders or forage crops Diversification of species herd composition(small ruminants)

Increase of herd size as security to mortality and Livestock trading

Ethno-veterinary Medicine (EVM)

1.4 Existing adaptation and mitigation strategies

© Nanyingi 2012

Nanyingi et al., 2008; Hellmuth et al., 2009; Notenbaert et al., 2010

04/20/23

6

Lack of economic capacity to adapt to a rapidly changing climate

Environmental Degradation: fragmentation and Desertification

Armed conflict and out-migration (Stock theft and trade barriers)

Lack of appropriate breeds of animals

Ineffective livestock policies (Institutional or government )

Extreme increase in human and animal Populations (Exponential)

Deplorable education levels and Religious beliefs

1.5 Impediments to adaptation and Mitigation

© Nanyingi 2012

Madisson 2010

04/20/23

7

Sustainable Intensification Improved feeding regimes by supplementation and climate

resistant forage crops ,conservation of grasslands, rotational or adaptive grazing

Production adjustments- modifying stock routings and distances Reproductive technologies for increased production and

disease/heat tolerant breeds , faster growing breeds Market improvement by incentives and standardization Physical infrastructure (Roads, rails, jetty's, cooling facilities) Disease Surveillance and Management (Transboundary)- DVS Improved management of water, herd composition, stock rates

Survival and livelihood diversification  Diversifying incomes by mixed livestock farming systems Index Based Livelihood Insurance systems (IBLI)

1.6 Emerging adaptation/mitigation mechanisms

© Nanyingi 2012

Madisson 2010; Herrero et al 2010

04/20/23

8

To understand how short-term response strategies may link to long-term options for implemented decisions do not undermine coping ability.

Linking Climate change with existing dynamic policies to cope with high level of uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of potential climate changes and the rapidly evolving knowledge base (NSCC)

Development of spatial predictive models for improved understanding and translation into accurate seasonal forecasting of future climatological data

Collaborative efforts in addressing the climate change challenges can support “one health” initiatives addressing climate sensitive neglected zoonotic diseases.

2.0 Why climate change research?

© Nanyingi 201204/20/23

9

Community Participatory Epidemiology (CPE): Capacity building livestock keepers , Decision Support tools

Quantifying sensitivity to climate change, societal resilience, adaptive capacity and costs of impacts of CC(Disease Burden and Economic Modelling Analysis )

Spatial and temporal predictive modelling of livestock diseases- Mapping of disease hotspots, watering areas, transhumance corridors and overlay the climate change hotspots with the food insecure hotspots

Global Circulation Models (GCM) –Climate models to predict seasonal to inter-annual climate variability (HadCM3, ECHam4 , MarkSim)

2.1 Potential Research Approaches

© Nanyingi 201204/20/23

10

Vulnerable communities need financial and material support for creating alternative livelihood options with reduced dependence on livestock farming

Capacity to make continuing adjustments and improvements in adaptation by “learning by doing” via targeted monitoring of adaptations to climate change and their costs, benefits, and effects.

Local communities should be equipped with the necessary resources (financial, physical, social, and human) to cope and adapt, while an effective institutional capacity and supportive policy context is initiated.

It is important to identify easy to implement and cost effective mitigation activities strengthening the adaptive capacities to climate change of these communities.

3.0 Discussion :

© Nanyingi 201204/20/23

11

Mainstreaming of climate change adaptation policies intended to enhance broad resilience to risk or to promote sustainable development.

Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) linked to biophysical, climatic, social, economic processes consistent evaluation of adaptation and vulnerability

Climate monitoring and effective communication, including targeted support of surveillance of pests, diseases, directly affected by climate.

Strengthening the Interaction of science and policy needs to evolve as the scientific knowledge base changes and focus attention on the importance of integrative rather than disciplinary science

4.0 Conclusions :

© Nanyingi 201204/20/23

12

Multidisciplinary research teams to effectively harness the substantial scientific knowledge, while retaining a focus on the values important to stakeholders in achieving relevance, credibility, and legitimacy (Climate change Working Group???)

Many barriers to adaptation exist; overcoming them will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach, covering a range of scales and issues, from individual farmer awareness to the establishment of more efficient markets.

Current climate variability can be tackled by accelerating development and increasing social protection while future climate risks can be checked by building adaptive capacity and enhancing climate resilience of vulnerable communities .

5.0 Recommendations :

© Nanyingi 201204/20/23

13

Thank You- Asanteni Sana

© Nanyingi 201204/20/23

Addressing climate change is “a moral commitment to the global community”

mnanyingi@gmail.com