Climate change V&A research at TERI: methods, experiences, and future possibilities

Ulka KelkarAssociate FellowTERI (The Energy and Resources Institute), India

ECHAM4

HadCM2

CGCM1

Country-level Climate Change Impacts onCereal Production Potential on Currently Cultivated Land 2080s

Who is more vulnerable?

Identifying vulnerability Who and what are vulnerable to the projected

impacts? How vulnerable? Understanding vulnerability

What factors cause, amplify or dampen vulnerability?

Addressing vulnerability How can appropriate adaptation efforts /

policies be developed?

Presentation context and outline

Identifying vulnerability:

Observation

Retreat of the Gangotri glacier

Source: Earth Observatory, NASA

Invasion of chir into oak in Uttarkashi

Identifying vulnerability:

Modelling

N

Watershed

Digitized streams

Subbasins

Streams

Outlets# Linking stream added Outlet

Fig: Location of the watershed in the Upper Yamuna basin

Tata Energy Research InstituteTERI, IHC, Lodi RoadNew Delhi 110003, India

##

##

##

###

#

#

#

# #

# #

#

#

#

##

2

8

6

3

7

1

5

4

9

Koti

Damta

Simla

Solan

Dadahu

Lakhwar

Yamnotri

Tajewala Dehradun

Chakrata

Mussorrie

Yashwant Nagar

UTTARKASHI

SIRMAUR DEHRADUN

SOLAN

TEHRI GRAHW AL

YA MUNA NAGAR

SHIMLA

0 20 40 Kilometers

Impact of climate change on water and agriculture: case study in Uttaranchal

Annual maximum temperatures (1969-1990 and 2040-2060) trend analysis Station Dehradun

25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

0 10 20 30 40 50Years

Tem

per

atu

re (

deg

C)

Annual minimum temperature (1969-1990 & 2040-2060) & trend analysis

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

0 10 20 30 40 50Years

Min

imu

m t

em

pera

ture

(Deg

C)

Annual rainfall (1969-1990 and 2040- 2060) & trend analysis

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

3500.0

0 10 20 30 40 50Years (1969-74;1976-87;1991;1993;1998;2041-

2060)

Ra

infa

ll (m

m)

(1969) (2060)(1979) (1993) (2049)

Monthly Average rainfall for two time periods - Dehradun station

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Months (January - December)

Rain

fall

(m

m)

Average monthly (1970-1998) Average monthly (2040-60)

Identifying vulnerability:

Indices and mapping

2

8

6

3

7

1

5

4

9

DEHRADUNDISTRICT

UTTARKASHIDISTRICTUTTARKASHIDISTRICT

DEHRADUNDISTRICT

Mussorrie

Chakrata

Yamnotri

Lakhwar

Damta

9

4

5

1

7

3

6

8

2

0 20 40 Kilometers

N

Total runoff (mm/a)

1157 - 11891190 - 12211222 - 12541255 - 12861287 - 13191320 - 13511352 - 13841385 - 14161417 - 1449

Tata Energy Research InstituteTERI

Vulnerability index for Indian coastline

share of land area affected by 1-m SLR in total area of district (based on JNU 1993)

share of population affected in total population of district

district level index of relative development (CMIE 2000)

district level index of relative infrastructure development (CMIE 2000)

Indian agriculture: adaptive capacity

Biophysical vulnerability• Soil degradation and cover• Groundwater availability

Social vulnerability• Agricultural workers and

labourers• Literacy• Gender discrimination• Child mortality and

fertility

Technological vulnerability• Irrigation• Infrastructure

Climate sensitivity index

Observed (1961-90) HadRM2 (2 x CO2)

Identifying vulnerability:

‘Double exposure’

Elements of vulnerability profiles

Adaptive capacity

Biophysical vulnerability• Soil degradation and cover• Groundwater availability

Social vulnerability• Agricultural workers and labourers• Literacy• Gender discrimination• Child mortality and fertility

Technological vulnerability• Irrigation• Infrastructure

Globalizationvulnerability

Climate change

vulnerability

Climate sensitivity (monsoon dependence and dryness)

Trade sensitivity (port distance and import-sensitive crops)

Vulnerability profiles

Adaptive capacity + Climate sensitivity

Adaptive capacity + Trade sensitivity

Cyclones map

Jhalawar, Rajasthan • drought prone• low irrigation coverage, literacy, infrastructure

Chitradurga, Karnataka• water scarcity• proximity to city• contract farming and exports

Anantapur, Andhra Pradesh• semi-arid • response of groundnut farmers to import competition

Jagatsingpur, Orissa• cyclones, river floods (loss of mangroves)• high population density• acute poverty• proximity to port

Raipur, Chattisgarh• rice belt of central India• crop diversification• low literacy, infrastructure

Understanding vulnerability:

Local and community focus

A tale of two villages

Lakhakheri Umat: rainfed farming onlySemi/medium farmers – sale of stocksLandless labourers – seasonal migrationSmall/marginal farmers – temporary

coping measuresNo long-term adaptive solutions

Anghora: head-end of damAccess to irrigation opens up range of

coping optionsMuch better availability of electricity,

health facilities, and transport infrastructure (Kota markets)

Mixed farming of oranges and soybean

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Sh

ift

in c

rop

pin

g p

atte

rn

Les

s w

ater

-in

ten

sive

cro

p

Use

of

DR

Vs

Sea

son

al m

igra

tio

n

Use

ava

ilab

le s

tock

s

Sel

l ca

ttle

Lab

ou

r (g

ovt

or

pri

vate

Cre

dit

/ lo

an

Insu

ran

ce

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Sh

ift

in c

rop

pin

g p

atte

rn

Les

s w

ater

-in

ten

sive

cro

p

Use

of

DR

Vs

Sea

son

al m

igra

tio

n

Use

ava

ilab

le s

tock

s

Sel

l ca

ttle

Lab

ou

r (g

ovt

or

pri

vate

)

Cre

dit

/ lo

an

Insu

ran

ce

Semi-medium (2-4 ha) Small (1-2 ha) Marginal (<1 ha) Landless

Education, mechanisation, and cropping pattern

Timannahalli Mahadevpura

9 3

41

10

10

20

30

40

50

60

farmers educatedabove Xthstandard

farmers educatedbelow Xthstandard

96

5

3

02468

10121416

farmers educatedabove Xthstandard

farmers educatedbelow Xthstandard

mechanised non-mechanised

groundnut48%

onion

17%

sunflower11%

paddy 9%

jowar 2%

ragi

11%

maize

2% groundnut34%

sunflower 10%paddy

10%

jowar

4%

ragi

13%

sericulture 10%

gram 5%

arecanut 4%

coconut4%

fruits and plantation crops 6%

Addressing vulnerability

Incorporating adaptation thinking in policymaking: some examples

Incentives for making existing schemes available to small/marginal farmers– Credit, insurance, subsidies, HYVs

Cross-sectoral dialogue– Tail-end villages in command area

Agri-based industries and markets– Rice mills, purchase ceilings, Nagari-dhuvraj, jute mills

Support for traditional options– Teevra crop on residual soil moisture, fruits and vegetables in

homestead Development is the best form of adaptation

– Education, health facilities, electricity, roads

Developing adaptation efforts

Effective adaptation strategies require understanding of regional / local dimensions of vulnerability

Climate change does not occur in isolation – multiple stresses

Domestic policies can enhance or constrain farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change

Adapting to climate variability and climate change Adaptation and sustainable development policies

Future research directions

• Further exploration of multi-tiered research approach – Multiple climate scenarios, extreme events– Application to other sectors / specific regions– Econometric modelling of determinants of

vulnerability

• Focus on policy aspects at level of state departments (including cross-sectoral issues)

• Capacity building and demonstration of adaptation options

www.teriin.orgProject supported by