Climate Change CO2 and CH4

Global Temperatures

Climate Change

Climate Systems

Human Systems

EcologicalSystems

Planetary Position &

Solar Output

Earth Systems & Human Systems

Earth from the South Pole

Image creditNASA/JPL

This is a physically Impossible view of Earth imaged by Galileo Orbiter taken directly over the South Pole.

Why is this view physically impossible?

Solar Insolation Milankovitch Cycles The Anthropocene Stall

Earth experiencing an Ice Age?

The Ruddiman early Anthropocene hypothesis suggests that if solar insolation and Milankovitch cycle theories are ascribed to, then Earth is in an Ice Age now... But that the effects and full onset of a normal Ice Age have been forsetalled by the onset of agrarian activities some 8,000 years ago and accelerated in the 19th century by the advent of the industrial age

3 Primary Factors Eccentricity Axial Tilt Precession

Milankovitch Cyclesand Glaciation

Credit: Montana State University Department of Earth SciencesDr. William W. LockeA hypertext for the appreciation of glaciers, and how they workBy the students in Geology 445 Glacial Geology - Spring, 1999

Climate Forcing and Temperature Change

Shifting to a new Era

Glacial Deterioration

South Cascade Glacier

Glacial Deterioration

Grinnell Glacier in 1940

Grinnell Glacier taken from the Grinnell Glacier Overlook off the Highline Trail, Glacier National Park. The view of Grinnell Glacier taken circa 1940 shows the early formation of Upper Grinnell Lake, a pro-glacier lake visible at the terminus of the glacier.

Grinnel Glacier in 2005The lake continues to enlarge as the glacier recedes. Icebergs can be seen floating in Upper Grinnell Lake.

This this photo was taken in 2005.

Credit: Blase Reardon US Geological Survey

Polar ice deterioration

Solar activity & Orbital Centricity

The Sun observed by SUMER instrument on the SOHO satellite on March 2-4, 1996. (Source: SOHO - SUMER Instrument).

Volcanic Activity

Volcanic eruptions may send ash and sulphate gas high into the atmosphere. The sulphate may combine with water to produce tiny droplets (aerosols) of sulphuric acid, which reflect sunlight back into space.

Large eruptions reach the middle stratosphere (19 miles to 30 kilometres high). At this altitude, the aerosols can spread around the world.

NASA image 3 months after eruption

Clouds Water vapour is the most abundant greenhouse gas

Cloud feedback could accelerate global warming.

Fewer low level clouds mean that more sunlight reaches Earth’s surface, leading to further warming.

Credit: Goddard Space Flight Center - EOS Project Science Office

Increasing PopulationIncreased Protein Consumption = increased Methane

Credit: University of Hawaii at Manoa College of Tropical Agriculture and Human ResourcesCTAHR Exchange – C. Y. HuSustainable Agriculture

How does this impact Municipalities?

Coastal Municipalities - 2070Top 20 Port Cities Exposed

B.C. Coastal Tide SLR Policy

Coastal Asset Exposure – 2070

Source:

Coastal Population Exposure – 2070

Source:

Miami Asset Exposure - 2070

400 Billion at risk today

3.5 Trillion at risk by 2070

Source:

CO2 carbon dioxide CH4 Methane N2O Nitrous oxide

High GWP (global warming potential) gas◦ HFC’s hydrofluorocarbons ◦ PFCs perfluorocarbons◦ SF6 sulphur hexafluoride

* To name some

Complexity

Human GHG impact

The Montreal Protocol demonstrates what can be achieved with global perspective, effective collaboration, and prudent stewardship.

Can we really make a difference?

Ozone depletion cooperation

2006 World Meteorological Organization/United Nations Environment Programme Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion concluded the ozone hole recovery would be masked by annual variability for the near future and the ozone hole would fully recover in approximately 2065.

Full Recovery estimated 2065

CFC-11The Montreal Protocol Human Intervention through collaboration

CFC-12The Montreal Protocol Human Intervention through collaboration

We know about CO2 and CH4

We can mitigate through human intervention Methane Gas (CH4) has significant potential to

damage to Earth’s Atmosphere There could be 400 Gigatons of Methane

locked in the frozen Arctic Tundra

Why are CO2 and CH4 so important?Carbon dioxide and Methane

Methane has significant capacity to accelerate global warming

We do not know if there is a tipping point in atmospheric composition

It is possible that Methane can contribute to a chain reaction that could alter the fundamental composition of atmospheric gases

Methane from the Arctic

Massive Organic Content

Warming causes microbial activity that generates methane

Methane on this scale could tip climate change beyond human control

Methane from the Arctic

GHG Mitigation & Energy Needsbridges to clean renewable energy

Dry ice is compressed CO2

CO2 is a greenhouse gas

CO2 Ice Core Data

Image of Global Carbon Sinks

Seeding the ocean with iron to produce extensive phytoplankton blooms

Phytoplankton Blooms

Off the coast of Vancouver Island, Canada.

Millions of tiny ocean plants called phytoplankton

Risks: Oceanic ecosystem complexity Production of domoic acid Toxic to marine mammal life

Credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (MODIS)

Fossil-Fuel Comparison

Emissions Comparison

US Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector - 2007(Quadrillion Btu)

China is the largest CO2 emitter and growing faster than expected

Emissions by CountryThe Growth of China

Per Capita GHG 2007

Per capita CO2 2009

CO2 emissions

CO2 footprint CDN oilsands

1 typical car annual = 5.5 tonnes 100 watt light bulb annual = .9 tonnes Upgrading and refining 10 barrels of bitumen = 1 tonne

Carbon footprint perspective

Cool It - Free Online CO2 Calculatorhttp://www.cool-it.us/index.php?refer=&task=carbon&step=1

Questions ?