climate change: uncertainty, disagreement, and moving

Climate Change: Uncertainty, Disagreement, and Moving Forward Together

Thomas G. White, Ph.D. and John W. Delano, Ph.D.

Outline/Plan

I. Introduction: Broad Contours of Uncertainty and Disagreement

II. Climate Science Perspective (John)

A. Data

B. Models

III. Social Science and Other Perspectives on Moving Forward (Tom)

A. Promising Work in Psychology and Economics

B. Big Ideas from Multiple Perspectives

IV. Questions, Comments, and Reactions (3:45-4:00)

Virtually NO Disagreement on Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) among Climate Experts

Source: Cook, J., van der Linden, S., Maibach, E., & Lewandowsky, S. (2018). The Consensus Handbook. Available at:http://www.climatechangecommunication.org/all/consensus-handbook/

http://www.climatechangecommunication.org/all/consensus-handbook/

Scientific Uncertainty: What is it, and what are the sources of uncertainty?

Image from NASA / NOAA / GSFC / Suomi NPP satellite

The 'Blue Marble'

image of Earth

Climate Science Perspective

Major Questions about Earth’s Climate System

What is the greenhouse effect?

How much has climate changed in the past?

What has driven Earth’s climate changes in the past?

How are ancient atmospheric compositions determined?

What is the main source of excess CO2 in today’s atmosphere?

How are climate models determined?

Greenhouse Effect

http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/grnhse.html

http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/grnhse.html

Greenhouse Effect

H2O (vapor)

CO2 (gas)

CH4 (gas)

L. E. Lisiecki and M. E. Raymo (2005) A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally

distributed benthic 18O records. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 20 (1), 17 pages.

Global climate has been gradually cooling for 3.5 million years

cold

warm

low

high

J. Jouzel, et al. (2007) Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the last

800,000 years. Science, 317, 793-796.

D. Lüthi, D., et al. (2008) High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-

800,000 years before present. Nature, 453, 379-382.

Monnin, E., et al. (2001) Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last glacial

termination. Science, 291, 112-114.

Parrenin, F., et al. (2007) The EDC3 chronology for the EPICA Dome C ice core.

Climate of the Past, 3, 485-497, 2007

low

cold

800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0

Years (before present)

D

(p

er m

il)

C

O2

(pp

m)

Data from the Antarctic EPICA Dome C ice core

S. Marcott, et al. (2013) A Reconstruction of Regional and Global

Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years. Science, 339, 1198-1201.

10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0


10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

Tem

per

atu

re a

nom

aly

(C

)

https://www.climate.gov/taxonomy/term/3451

Milankovich Cycles and Climate

https://www.climate.gov/taxonomy/term/3451

11 annual layers in Greenland ice core

7.5 inches

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/cm-long-section-of-GISP-2-ice-core-from-1855-m-

showing-annual-layer-structure-illuminated_fig17_295918492

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/cm-long-section-of-GISP-2-ice-core-from-1855-m-showing-annual-layer-structure-illuminated_fig17_295918492

Data from the Antarctic EPICA Dome C ice core

800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0


D

(p

er m

il)

C

O2

(pp

m)

low

high

low

cold cold

warm

Ancient air bubbles

trapped in the

Antarctic ice core

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.png

CO

2(p

pm

)

Year

Pre-industrial atmosphere

contained 280 ppm CO2

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.png

Comparison of pollution and energy

C (coal) + O2 (air) → CO2

394 kJ

Burning of natural gas

CH4 (methane) + 2O2 (air) → CO2 + 2H2O

890 kJ

Burning of coal

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, U. S. Department of Energy

Annual CO2 emissions

5 billion tons

10 billion tons

15 billion tons

20 billion tons

25 billion tons

30 billion tons

35 billion tons

Year

0

1751 1800 1850 1900 1950 2017

“Isotopic fingerprints”

Volcanic CO2 emissions: -2 to -6‰

Weathering of crustal rock: -7‰

Burning of coal: -25‰

Burning of oil: -18 to -34‰

M. Rubino, et al. (2013) A revised 1000 year atmospheric δ13C‐CO2 record from Law Dome

and South Pole, Antarctica. J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres), 118 (15), 8482-8499.

1000 1600 1800 20001200 1400Year

13C [%o]

CO2 [ppm]

CO

2(p

pm

)Year [AD]

(2017) Climate Science Special Report,

4th National Climate Assessment, vol. 1, Figure 3.3

Ensemble Model

COVID-19 projections

Climate projections

Rate of greenhouse gas input

Planetary albedo

Human population growth

Rise in affluence

Infectious period

Time: illness onset to hospitalization

Time: onset of illness to death

Hospital stay time

Time to recoveryMortality rate

Rate of positive cases per day

Mitigation effects

Lockdown fatigue factor

IHME projection on September 10, 2020Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

United StatesAll deaths specific to COVID-19

100

Tota

l d

eath

s (t

hou

san

ds)

200

300

400

500

600

0Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 1

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

Z. Hausfather and G. P. Peters (2020) Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story

is misleading. Nature, 577, 618-620.

Year

150

100

50

0

An

nu

al

glo

ba

l fo

ssil

-fu

el C

O2

emis

sio

ns

(bil

lio

ns

of

met

ric

ton

s)

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100-20

Emission Models with Climate Effects



Infrared energy trapped by greenhouse gases


Gradual cooling during the last 3 million years


Milankovich cycles, plate tectonics, ocean circulation


Analysis of old air trapped in ice cores


Burning of fossil fuels and deforestation


Weighting of processes and projections of human behavior

John Delano mentioned during the class that the atmospheric residence time of CO2 is about 50

years. During the question-and-answer portion of the class, a comment was made by a student

that the atmospheric residence time of a radioactive isotope of carbon (14C) is about 10 years.

Therefore, the residence time of CO2 must also be about 10 years, not 50 years. John Delano

thanked the individual for his comment, and said that this matter would be pursued.

John Delano’s response

(a) It is correct that the atmospheric residence time of 14C is 5 to 10 years. However, residence

time is dependent on molecular species. For example, Earth’s atmosphere has several kinds of

carbon-bearing molecules, such as CO2, CH4, CO, and CH3Cl. The latter three molecules have

atmospheric residence times of less than 10 years. Therefore, the set of molecular species to

which the 14C atoms are bonded determines the residence time of 14C in the atmosphere.

(b) The atmospheric residence time of CO2 is generally thought to be at least 30 years, and

possibly as long as 100 years. John Delano used a value of 50 years during the class. The

exact value lies somewhere between 30 and 100 years, and remains an area of scientific

investigation.

Here is a peer-reviewed scientific article bearing on this matter:

G. C. Cowley (2011) On the atmospheric residence time of anthropogenically sourced

carbon dioxide. Energy and Fuels, 25 (11), 5503-5513.

Follow-on to a question raised during the class

Social Science and Other Perspectives on Moving Forward

• Promising Work in Psychology and Economics

• Big Ideas from Multiple Perspective

Pascal’s Wager

Earthly punishment

Earthly rewards

Eternal misery Eternal rewards

Behave as if God Exists (Good Deeds)

God Exists

No

Yes

No Yes

Pascal’s Wager and Climate Change

No Disruption and No Costs 😀

Costs without benefit or costs with potential co-benefits🤔

Disruption and Suffering😟😩

Money well spent😀

Take Action

Climate is Changing andHumans Are Responsible(AGW—Anthropogenic Global Warming)

No

Yes

No Yes

What if we create a better world for nothing?

Pascal’s Wager Revisited

Money well spent😀

Take Action

Climate is Changing andHumans Are Responsible(Anthropogenic Global Warming—AGW)

No

Yes

No Yes

Perception of Scientific Agreement

Source: van der Linden, S., Leiserowitz, A., & Maibach, E. (2019). The gateway belief model: A large-scale replication. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 62, 49–58.

Large Consensus Messaging Effects for Republicans (!)

Source: van der Linden et al. (2019). The gateway belief model: A large-scale replication. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 62, 49–58.

Framing: Conservative and Liberal Climate Change Solutions

• Participants heard two different accounts of a speech on climate change, either ✓free market friendly (U.S. could profit from leading the

world in green technology), OR

✓heavily regulatory, emphasizing government restrictions on emissions

• Participants answered survey questions measuring their belief in human causation and agreement with climate change science.

Framing Study Results

Source: Campbell & Kay (2014). Solution aversion: On the relation between Ideologyand motivated disbelief. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 107, 809-824.

Modeling Health Co-Benefits and Mitigation Costs

Three-step process:

1. GCAM is used to quantify greenhouse gas emission pathways and associated mitigation costs under different assumptions.

2. Air quality model is used to translate emission levels into pollutant concentrations, exposure, and premature deaths.

3. Effects in (2) are monetized based on a range of values for the “Value of a Statistical Life” (VSL).

Emissions Scenarios and Premature Deaths from Pollution

Source: Markandya et al. (2018) Lancet Planet Health, 2, 126-133.

Health Co-Benefits and Mitigation Costs

Source: Markandya et al. (2018) Lancet Planet Health, 2, 126-133.

Should we trust this economistand his model-based predictions?

Anil Markandya, Distinguished Professor, Basque Center for Climate Change, Spain

Source: Stoknes, Per Espen (2015). What we think about when we try not to think about global warming. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Publishing.

Source: Otto et al. (2020). Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing the earth’s climate by 2050. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117, 2354-2365.

STEs = Social Tipping Elements and STIs = Social Tipping Interventions.Source: Otto et al. (2020). Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing the earth’s climate by 2050. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117, 2354-2365.

Let’s not forget the philosophers!

And the religious and spiritual leaders…The more deeply I search for the roots of the global environmental crisis, the more I am convinced that it is an outer manifestation of an inner crisis that is, for lack of a better word, spiritual. ⏤ Al Gore (?)

Evangelicals should return to being people known for our love and care of the earth and our fellow human beings. ⏤ Richard Cizik, Vice President of Governmental Affairs, National Association of Evangelicals

As the guardians of Allah’s creation we have a responsibility to protect the environment. ⏤ Fazlun Khalid, Founder and Director of the Islamic Foundation for Ecology and Environmental Sciences

Our beloved Earth, so touchingly looked upon as the Universal Mother, has nurtured mankind through millions of years of growth and evolution. Now centuries of rapacious exploitation of the planet have caught up with us, and a radical change in our relationship with nature is no longer an option. ⏤ Hindu Declaration on Climate Change

Ultimately, the decision to save the environment must come from the human heart. ⏤ The Dalai Lama

If we feel helpless or overwhelmed, if we have anger, fear, or despair, then no matter what we do to heal ourselves or the planet, it will not succeed. ⏤ Thich Nhat Hanh, Love Letter to the Earth

Image credit: Wikipedia

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