Climate Change throughout the Dakota’s

By: Benjamin Uecker Graduate Research Assistant

Natural Resource Management Department North Dakota State University

Background Information Global average surface temperature has risen at an

average rate of 0.15°F per decade since 1901.

Contiguous 48 states average surface temperature has risen at an average rate of 0.14°F per decade since 1901. More rapid increase since the late 1970’s (0.31 to 0.48°F per

decade)

7 of the top 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 1998.

2012 being the warmest year ever recorded

(Peterson , 2013)

Northern Plains Annual water loss from evapotranspiration is higher than annual precipitation.

An Average of seven days per year, maximum temperatures reached more than 95°F.

Spring precipitation is projected to increase causing: Increase runoff/flooding

Reducing water quality

Eroding soils

Benefits: Productivity will increase

Longer growing season

Increase Water availability?

However, most of the predicted increase in precipitation is during cooler months. With the projected increase in temperatures additional evapotranspiration will occur, which will bring in additional negative affects.

Climate Change Throughout the Dakota’s per County

North and South Dakota consists of 119 counties.

North Dakota consist of 53 counties

South Dakota consist of 66 counties

Climate data spans 64 years (1950-2014)

Temperature Maximum (°F)

Temperature Minimum (°F)

Precipitation (Inches)

Growing Degree Days (Days)

Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) spans 119 years (1895-2014)

Variable lengths of time

Season Length (Days)

Data Collection Temperature Maximum, Temperature Minimum and Precipitation

ACIS Query Builder

Developed and is maintained and operated by NOAA Regional Climate Centers.

“Interrogates historical climate information and near real-time data together to form a final product to help assess historical climate trends (Centers, 2014)”.

Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)

West Wide Drought Tracker

Developed and Maintained by Oregon State

Season Length

SC ACIS Version 2

Developed and Maintained by NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center

*All climate data was taken in the center of the county using longitude and latitude coordinates.*

Growing Degree Days For most plants, phonological development is strongly related to the

accumulation of heat or temperature units above a threshold base temperature.

Corns lower base temperature is 50°F

Corns upper limit temperature is 86°F

Growing degree day formula:

2 BaseTemp

Example: 75 52

2 50 13.5

Phase Development Stage GDD

Planting 0

Vegetative Two leaves fully emerged 200

Four leaves fully emerged 345

Six leaves fully emerged (growing point above soil) 476

Eight leaves fully emerged (tassel beginning to develop) 610

Ten leaves fully emerged 740

Twelve leaves fully emerged (ear formation) 870

Fourteen leaves fully emerged (silks developing on ear) 1000

Sixteen leaves fully emerged (tip of tassel emerging) 1135

Reproductive Silks emerging/pollen shedding (plant at full height) 1400

Kernels in blister stage 1660

Kernels in dough stage 1925

Kernels denting 2190

Kernels dented 2450

Physiological maturity 2700

(Gibson , 2003)

Conclusions Average change in slope throughout North Dakota

Temperature Maximum -0.044°F per decade

Temperature Minimum 0.290°F per decade

Precipitation 0.596 inches per decade

Growing degree days -16.7 per decade

Season Length 2.91 days per decade

Normal (1981-2011)

Temperature Maximum 52.3°F

Temperature Minimum 29.3°F

Precipitation 18.8 inches

Growing Degree Days 2320

Works Cited Assessment, N. C. (2015). Recent U.S. Temperature Trends . Retrieved from globalchange.gov :

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/recent-us-temperature-trends#statement-16553

Centers, R. C. (2014, March 22). ACIS Applied Climate Information System. Retrieved from ACIS : http://www.rcc-acis.org/aboutacis_overview.html

Climate of 2013- April U.S. Standardized Precipitation Index. (2013, May 15). Retrieved from NOAA National Climatic Data Center: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/prelim/drought/spi.html

Eggleston , K. (2014, November 14). SC ACIS . Retrieved from http://scacis.rcc-acis.org/

EPA. (2014, July 2). CLimate Change Indicators in the United States . Retrieved from EPA.gov : http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/weather-climate/temperature.html

Gibson , L. R. (2003, September 26). Growing degree-day calculation . Retrieved from Agronomy 212- Gran and Forage Crops : http://agron-www.agron.iastate.edu/Courses/agron212/Calculations/GDD.htm

Growing Degree Days (GDD). (2015). Retrieved from NDAWN Center North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network : http://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/help-corn-growing-degree-days.html

MapTechnica . (2015 , March 22). Retrieved from MapTechnica.com : http://www.maptechnica.com/

NOAA. (2015, March 31). ACIS Query Builder . Retrieved from http://builder.rcc-acis.org/

Peterson , T. C. (2013). Monitoring and Undersatnding Changes in Heat Waves, Cold Waves, Floods, and Droughts in the United Sates: State of Knowledge. AMS Journals Online, Vlume 94, Issure 6 .

WestWideDroughtTracker . (2015, March 31). Retrieved from http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/wwdt/time/