climate change sensitization session brazilian coffee sector

Climate Change Sensitization SessionBrazilian Coffee Sector

Objectives of the day

• To learn about the climate change phenomenon• To know about climate change impacts on

coffee production and impacts of coffee production on climate change

• To understand the concepts of climate change adaptation and mitigation

• To know some adaptation options and some mitigation measures

Climate Change and the Brazilian Coffee SectorAn Introduction

Climate Change and the Brazilian Coffee Sector

Key Questions:• What is climate change?• Which impacts has climate change caused?• What are the impacts on coffee?• What are expected impacts of climate change

for Brazil?• What are the consequences for Brazilian coffee

production?

What is climate change?

Definition:Any significant change in measures of climate,

such as temperature or precipitation, lasting for an extended period of time, typically decades (official IPCC definition)

What is the Greenhouse Effect?

What is the Greenhouse Effect?

GHG

Which impacts has climate change caused?

Source: Google Images

Which impacts has climate change caused?

• Increase in global temperature• Changes in precipitation patterns• More extreme weather events• Warming of poles and loss of sea

ice rising sea levels• Warming of oceans• Melting of glaciers

Seco Glacier, Argentina, 1953 – 2009

Source: Google Images

What are impacts on agriculture?

Source: FAO 1997

What are perceived impacts of coffee producers?

• Increase in pests and diseases• Food shortage; mal nutrition• Water scarcity• Extended drought periods• Drying of springs and streams• Degraded soils / landslides• Increase in floods • Poor yields increase in migration

What are impacts on coffee?

Increase in temperature:• Reduction of photosynthesis• Outer shell sticking to bean, preventing ripening• Changes in pest and disease incidents• Droughts erosion loss of soil fertility

Change in precipitations patterns / extreme weather events:• Damages the beans and affects growth• Irregular precipitation patterns during the harvest season makes the

drying process more difficult, altering the quality of the product• Strong precipitation landslides loss of plants and soil• Strong winds loss of plants or falling of flowers reduced harvest• Changes in flowering / irregular flowering

Source: Various studies of CIAT and CATIE, AdapCC 2010

What are predicted changes for Brazil?

Source: 4th AR IPCC 2007; CREAS 2009

Temperature Increases by > 3°Cin southern Brazil expected by 2050

For southern South America above 4°C in summer and 2 to 5°C in winter expected by 2071 - 2100

Due to rising temperatures: increased evapotranspiration water deficiency in south and southeast Brazil

Hot days / nights

More short-term temperature extremes expected, increasing number of hot days and nights

Precipitation Increase of rainfall of above 20% in Southeast in form of more intense and more frequent extreme events expected by 2071 – 2100

What are the consequences for Brazilian agriculture?

• By 2050: 50% of currently suitable area for agriculture will be affected by desertification and salinization (IPCC 4th AR 2007)

• Benefits: reduced frost risk in southern and southeast regions (Pinto, Assad)

Current suitable coffee growing zones

Source: Pinto & Assad 2008

Predicted changes in suitability: Optimistic outlook


Optimistic outlook SRES B2 until 2050 (-18.3%) and 2070 (-27.39%)

Current suitable areas

Predicted changes in suitability: Pessimistic outlook


Pessimistic outlook SRES A2 until 2050 (-17.1%) and 2070 (-33%)

Current suitable areas

What are the consequences for Brazilian coffee production?

Predictions by EMBRAPA and UNICAMP:• By 2050 loss of 18.3% of total land suitable for coffee; by 2070 loss of

27.39%• Potential losses of at least R$ 1.7 billion, R$ 2.57 billion respectively

(based on 2006 production of 2.5 million tonnes worth R$ 9.3 billion)

• Arabica coffee hit hardest: likely loss of suitable area by up to 33% in São Paolo and Minas Gerais due to water shortages or excessive heat

• Increasing suitability for coffee production in the south due to reduced frost risk because of rising temperature

• Potential increase in suitability for coffee production in Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul

• Despite the suitability increase in the south, a loss of total production area is expected

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

Climate Change Adaptation and Adaptation Options in CoffeeAn overview

Climate Change Adapation and Adaptation Options in Coffee

Key Questions:• What are responses to climate change?• What does climate change adaptation mean?• What are climate vulnerabilities?• How can coffee producers adapt to climate

change?• Are there practical examples to learn from?• What are relevant terms and definitions?

What are responses to climate change?

Climate Change

Adap- tation Impacts

Responses

What is climate change adaptation?

Definition:Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to

actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation (IPCC TAR, 2001 a)

Action of people (e.g. coffee farmers) that minimizes negative impacts of climate change or utilizes opportunities.

What are climate vulnerabilities?

Vulnerabilities in the production system:• Inadequate management of the farm / of the agro-forestry system• Old plants• Poor soil fertility• Inefficient management of natural resources• High deforestation rate affecting local ecosystems

Vulnerabilities of producers:• High dependence on one cash crop / one source of income• Lack of access to information / education / capacity• Lack of access to finance

How can coffee producers adapt to climate change?

Coffee producers have mainly three options to adapt:

1. Adapting their production system2. Adapting their plants3. Enhancing their framework

conditions

How can coffee producers adapt to climate change?

Examples of adaptation options:• Diversification of crops and income• Good agricultural practices (shade mgmt / pruning / pest mgmt /

soil mgmt)• New technologies suitable for coffee drying (e.g. solar dryers) • Maintenance and expansion of forest cover• Efficient management of natural resources / efficient energy use

(improved kitchen stoves, renewable energy)• Capacity building for promoter farmers and producers • Conservation of genetic diversity / species resistant to droughts• Access to climate information, credit, crop insurance• Farmer organizations

What are recommendations for Brazil?

The needs for adaptation differ from production site to production site. However, based on the projections for Brazil C&C recommends the following:

Enhancing framework conditions Relevance

Data collection: precipitation and temperature

Having accurate local data on precipitation and on temperature helps to monitor changes in the microclimate and to predict future changes; it creates awareness on changes already taking place


Adaptation of the production system

Relevance

Soil moisture retention by mulching

Due to increasing temperature and evapotranspiration an emphasis will need to be put on the conservation of soil moisture

Wind breaks To protect the coffee plots better against strong winds and extreme events

Water harvesting As water shortage will be a challenge in especially São Paolo and Minas Gerais, water harvesting will help to relieve water stress

Conservation of riparian areas

In areas with increased rainfall and more extreme events well conserved riparian areas can support flood prevention; at the same time these can prevent high evapotranspiration rates

Barriers to channel surface runoff

More extreme weather events and an increase in rainfall in some areas will lead to excess water which should be channelled through the plot as to avoid water erosion and land degradation


Adaptation of the plant Relevance

Use of gypsum The gypsum will facilitate deeper growth of the roots, therefore nutrients and water down below can be reached, which will be important in areas with reduced rainfall and increased evapotranspiration

Improved (i.e. deeper) polythene bags for seedlings

This will also facilitate longer roots / deeper root growth before planting the seedlings (see above)

Yes, there have been some pilot initiatives on climate change adaptation with coffee smallholders. One example is the project “Adaptation for Smallholders to Climate Change – AdapCC”:

• Development Partnership between Cafédirect plc and GIZ• Duration of three years: 04/2007 to 02/2010• 3 pilots in coffee: Mexico, Peru, Nicaragua• 1 pilot in tea: Kenya• www.adapcc.org

Are there practical examples to learn from?

http://www.adapcc.org/

Practical example: AdapCC pilot Peru

Climate Variability

Prolonged droughts leading tomore pest incidentsStrong windsCold fronts and fog

Vulnerability High deforestation rateDegraded areas / landslidesPoor pest and shade managementPoor soil fertility due to poor agricultural practicesLack of investments in capacity building and infrastructure

Adaptation Strategy

Capacity building and technical assistance on good agricultural practices and climate change adaptationReforestation program in the upper water catchment area and within the coffee plots

http://www.adapcc.org/en/peru.htm



What are relevant terms and definitions regarding adaptation?

Exposure: • The degree of climate stress upon a particular unit (e.g. farm) in a defined

area

Sensitivity:• The degree to which a system is affected by, or responsive, to climate stimuli

Vulnerability: • Factors which make a system (e.g. coffee production) susceptible to negative

impacts of climate change

Adaptive capacity: • The ability to adjust to climate stimuli

Resilience: • The capacity of a system to rebound or recover from a climate stimulus

Climate Change MitigationAn overview

Climate change mitigation

Key Questions:• What are responses to climate change?• What is climate change mitigation?• Which greenhouse gases exist in agriculture?• Where do we cause emissions?• What are greenhouse gas pools and sources?• How can coffee producers mitigate climate

change?• What are important terms and definitions?


Climate Change

Mitigation

Causes (GHG)

Impacts

Responses

What is climate change mitigation?

Definition:Climate change mitigation is action to decrease the intensity of

radiative forcing* in order to reduce the potential effects of global warming (IPCC TAR, 2001)

* Radiative forcing: the change in net difference between the incoming radiation energy and the outgoing radiation energy in a given climate system; measured in watts per square meter (IPCC TAR, 2001)

Activities that reduce, prevent or remove greenhouse gases and therefore reduce climate change.

25,9 %19,4 %

17,4 %13,5 %

13,1 %7,9 %

2,8 %

Which greenhouse gases exist in agriculture?

Source: IPCC 2007 / adapted from Sangana PPP 2010

Ener

gy g

ener

ation

Indu

stry

Fore

stry

Sec

tor

Agric

ultu

ral S

ecto

r

Tran

spor

t

Cons

truc

tion

Was

te

Together the forestry and the agricultural sector contribute around 31% of global emissions!

Which greehouse gases exist in agriculture?

Source: IPCC 2007

The main GHG in the agricultural sector are methane, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide. As CO2 is the most important GHG, the other gases are calculated into equivalents of this gas: CO2e.

Where do we cause emissions?

GHG Source %

CO2 Burning of fossil fuels for transportation, generation of electricity and other uses

56.6

CO2 Deforestation 20.1

CH4 Livestock, rice fields, trash dumps 14.3

N2O Fertilizer, livestock 7.9

HFC, PFC, SF6

Synthetic origin (aerosol propellants, refrigeration, foams), industrial uses, intensive agriculture

1.1

Source: IPCC 2007 / adapted from Sangana PPP 2010

What are carbon pools?

1. Above ground biomass2. Below ground biomass3. Dead wood

4. Leaf litter5. Soil organic carbon (SOC)

Biom

ass

Soil

Organic matter

5

1, 2

3, 4Source: Sangana PPP 2010

Carbon pools are ecosystem components capable of emitting or removing greenhouse gases into or from the atmosphere:

What are emission sources?

Source: Sangana PPP 2010

Source Gas Fertilizer Use N2O Burning of fossil fuels CO2

Burning of biomass CH4

Livestock production Gastric fermentation CH4

Manure management CH4

N2O

Tillage and over grazing CO2

What are emission sources in agriculture?

Source: Adapted from Sangana PPP 2010

Atmosphere

Ecosystem

GHG

GHGGHG

GHG

GHG

How can coffee producers mitigate climate change?

• Removal: activities to capture or remove GHG by ecosystem components. Removal can be estimated or measured.


For removal activities we consider our carbon pools.

Atmosphere

Ecosystems and activities

GHG

GHG

How can coffee producers mitigate climate change?

• Reduction: activities to minimize or prevent GHG emissions generated. Reductions can be estimated or measured.


For reduction activities we consider our emission sources.

Where are overlaps between adaptation and mitigation?

Options Adaptation Mitigation

Shade management Integrated pest management Organic fertilization Soil conservation measures Diversification (e.g. with fruit trees) Mulching

What are important terms and definitions?

• Carbon footprint: the total set of GHG emissions caused by an organization, event, product or person (UK Carbon Trust, 2009)

• Carbon credit: 1t of CO2e reduced or removed that is sold; countries or large companies buy these credits to offset their emissions or to show their contribution to climate change mitigation

• Carbon project: a project that aims to generate carbon credits under certain criteria and rules

Wrap Up


Climate Change

Mitigation

Causes (GHG)

Impacts

Responses

Adap- tation

Reflecting…..

…on what we have learned:• Are you already affected by climate change? If

so, how?• Are you prepared for the predicted climate

change and resulting challenges?• What else would you need to feel well

prepared for future changes?

At home…..

…you can discuss the topic with your families and neighbours:

• Are they perceiving any changes in climate?• Do they have access to information on climate

change and predicted future changes?• Regarding natural resources and coffee

production: How would your children see the future if everything continuous as it is going now? How would their desired future look like?

Climate change is happening now – the winners will be those, who are best prepared!Thank you for your attention.

Author:Kerstin Linne

[email protected]

Coffee & Climatewww.coffeeandclimate.org

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

climate change sensitization session brazilian coffee sector

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