Climate Change Seminar: science background, and

transport trends

Frank Kelly

University of Cambridge

8 September 2006

References: www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~frank/climate/

Overview

• Science Background - IPCC

• Transport Trends

• Trains and planes

August 1992, GOES-7 satellite. Hurricane Andrew. (Courtesy of F. Hasler, et al, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and NASA)

www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/models/carbon_cycle/intro_global.html

Transport trends

Reference: National Statistics Online http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Expodata/Spreadsheets/D7280.xls

UK Emissions of carbon dioxide: by end user

0

20

40

60

80

100

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

mil

lio

n t

on

nes

of

carb

on

eq

uiv

alen

t

Domestic

Industry

Other

Transport

Reference: 'Transport: Trends and Challenges', an Issues Paper for PIU Strategic Futures Seminar 13 November 2001, Figure 1http://www.number-10.gov.uk/su/transport/background.pdf

GDP and Transport Growth, 1952-1999

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Ind

ex (

1958

=10

0)

Passenger (all modes) Freight (all modes) GDP

Reference: DfT: Transport Statistics for Great Britain (2003 edition), Chapter 9, Table 9.5http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/dft_index.hcst?n=8736&l=3

Domestic freight transport by mode: goods moved 1953-2001

0

50

100

150

200

250

30019

53

1958

1963

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

bil

lio

n t

on

ne

kmRoad Water Rail Pipeline

Reference: DfT: Transport Statistics for Great Britain (2003 edition), Chapter 9, Table 9.1http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/dft_index.hcst?n=8736&l=3

Passenger transport: by mode 1952-2002

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

70019

52

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

2002

bil

lio

n p

asse

ng

er k

mBuses and coaches Motor cycles Pedal cycles

Rail Air Cars, vans and taxis

Reference: DfT: Transport Statistics for Great Britain (2003 edition), Chapter 9, Table 9.1http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/dft_index.hcst?n=8736&l=3

Passenger travel by mode: air and pedal cycle 1952-2002

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1952

1957

1962

1967

1972

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

bil

lio

n p

asse

ng

er k

m

Air Pedal Cycle

Reference: DfT, Transport Trends (current edition); Trend 4.10bhttp://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/dft_index.hcst?n=9381&l=3

Average trip length, by purpose: 1985/6 and 2002

0

5

10

15

20

25

Commuting Business Education Shopping Leisure All journeys

1985/86 2002 R

Reference: DfT, Transport Trends (current edition); Trend 8.1 a & bhttp://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/dft_index.hcst?n=9381&l=3

Reference: Quality of Life Counts: Indicators for a strategy for sustainabledevelopment for the United Kingdom, 2004 Update, Indicator D15http://www.sustainable-development.gov.uk/sustainable/quality04/maind/pdf/qolc2004.pdf

Average fuel efficiency of new cars 1970-2002

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

mil

es p

er g

allo

n

Reference: Quality of Life Counts: Indicators for a strategy for sustainabledevelopment for the United Kingdom, 2004 Update, Indicator T4http://www.sustainable-development.gov.uk/sustainable/quality04/maind/pdf/qolc2004.pdf

Real changes in the cost of transport and disposable income: 1974 to 2002

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

Pri

ce i

nd

ex (

1974

=10

0)Petrol/oil All motoring Rail Bus Disposable income

1998 Road Sector Marginal Costs

0.00

3.00

6.00

9.00

12.00

Congestion Accidents Air Pollution Noise ClimateChange

Pen

ce p

er v

ehic

le k

m Upper Estimate

Lower Estimate

Reference: Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, “Surface Transport Costs and Charges: Great Britain 1998”, page 45http://www.its.leeds.ac.uk/projects/STCC/downloads/SurfaceTransportCostsReport.pdf

Reference: DfT Road Pricing Feasibility Study, Annex B - Modelling Results and Analysis; Figure B1http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_roads/documents/page/dft_roads_029735.pdf

Marginal external costs and tax paid by road users

Pence per km

Marginal external cost of

congestion (a)

Environment and safety

costs (b)

Fuel duty and VAT on duty

(C)Uncovered

externality (a+b)-c

2000 7.3 2.2 5.2 4.3

2010 12.3 1.6 3.9 10.1

Trains and planes

• Aviation 96.4

• Rail 11.9

• Car 71.0

• Coach 9.2

• Lorry (per tonne) 116.9

London-Edinburghkg of CO2 per passenger per journey

Hansard - written answer - 8 July 2004

Class 91 electric high speed train 70% occupied,coach with 40 passengers, and 1.56 persons per car

London-Edinburgh(litres per seat)

0

25

50

75

100

Plane Car 225 km/hTrain

350 km/hTrain

Prim

ary

fuel

lit

res/

seat

100%

50%

25%

PassengerLoading

The comparison is between an Airbus A371, a VW Passat TDI and two hypothetical trains,

running at 225 and 350 km/h respectively.

Kemp R. J. Environmental impact of high-speed rail. Institution of Mechanical Engineers. Seminar on High Speed Rail Developments, 21 April 2004

Historical vehicle mass per passenger seat for UK and Japanese rolling stock

UK vehicles

Japanese vehicles

Contrails and Aircraft-Induced Cirrus

Source: NOAA-12 AVHRR satellite data (Mannstein, 1997)

Distribution of fuel burned bycivil aviation, 1992

Research proceeds…

Source: TRADEOFF Project, Sausen et al, 2005

Discussion