climate change overview rosina bierbaum, dean and professor the investor forum on climate risk...
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Climate Change Overview Climate Change Overview
Rosina Bierbaum, Dean and ProfessorRosina Bierbaum, Dean and Professor
The Investor Forum on Climate Risk The Investor Forum on Climate Risk
December 7, 2006December 7, 2006
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OUTLINE OF THE TALKOUTLINE OF THE TALK
Climate change is a “matter of Climate change is a “matter of degrees”degrees”
The state of scienceThe state of science Future impacts on the US Future impacts on the US Impacts already documented in Impacts already documented in
AssessmentsAssessments New and worrisome scienceNew and worrisome science The size of the energy challengeThe size of the energy challenge Pursuit of solutionsPursuit of solutions
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Climate Change: it’s a matter of degrees...
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Human-induced radiative forcing will greatly exceed natural and pre-21st century increments
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World Primary Energy Supply by Source, 1850-1997
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T changes for 2x CO2The two globes summarize computer simulations to compare the warming expected under a doubling of CO2 from the pre-industrial level with the warming expected from a quadrupling.
Note that N hemisphere mid-continent average warming in the 4xCO2 world is 15-25°F!
This is a roasted world.
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A matter of degrees...
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Linkage Between Climate and Air Quality
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Noxious Weeds
Alliaria petolata(Garlic Mustard)
Pueraria lobata (Kudzu)Lythrum salicaria L.
(Purple Loosestrife)
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A matter of degrees...
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India’s worst drought for 20 years left people struggling to find water.
2003. Nature 423:673
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•IPCC 1990: The observed increase [in temperatures] could be largely due to natural variability; alternatively this variability andother man-made factors could have offset a still larger man-made greenhouse warming.
•IPCC 1995: The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.
•IPCC 2001: There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is due to human activities.
Increasing Confidence in the Science
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Computer models of climate match observations only if natural forcings (sun, volcanoes) and human ones (GHG, particulates) are included. The human forcings are responsible for most of the rapid warming 1970-2000.
IPCC, 2001
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Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature for:
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IPCC (2001) scenarios to 2100
1000 years of Earth temperature history…and 100 years of projection
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Jacoby, MIT
An Interesting Way to Present Predicted T Probability Distributions
Jacoby, MIT
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U.S.
WorldAverage
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NAST, 2000
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Health ImpactsHealth ImpactsWeather-related mortality/heat stressInfectious diseasesAir quality-induced respiratory effects
Agriculture ImpactsAgriculture ImpactsCrop yields and commodity pricesIrrigation demandsPests and weed
Water Resource ImpactsWater Resource ImpactsChanges in water supply and timingWater qualityIncreased competition for water
Coastal Area ImpactsCoastal Area Impacts Erosion of beachesInundation of coastal wetlandsCosts to defend coastal communities
Forest ImpactsForest ImpactsChange in forest compositionShift geographic range of forestsForest health and productivity
Ecosystem ImpactsEcosystem ImpactsShifts in ecological zonesLoss of habitat and speciesCoral reefs threatened
Climate change will have a range of impactsClimate change will have a range of impacts
Climate Changes
Sea Level Rise
Temperature
Precipitation
Adapted from EPAAdapted from EPA
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Changing Forest Types
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California:Increased winter runoff, reduced spring and summer streamflowDecrease in water supply and reliabilityin Central Valley Basin.
Examples of Regional Water Impacts
Chesapeake Bay:Sea level rise will inundate most existing wetlands.
Florida:Wetlands at riskBiscayne aquifer becomes salty; loss of shrimp, crabs, oysters, and other species
Louisiana:Sea level rise of over 4 feet by 21004,000 sq mi of wetlands at riskIncreased vulnerability of coastal drainage and sewage systems
Great Plains:Pressure for more irrigationSurface runoff and erosion of pesticides and fertilizers may increase
Colorado River Basin:Decreased runoff will exacerbatesalinity problemsShift in seasonality of runoff.Water deliveries may be dramatically affected
San Francisco Bay:With sea level rise, flooding ofDelta islands and marshes. Increased bay salinity and inland migration of saltwater
Great Lakes:Avg. lake levels could fall by 2-8 feetHigher water temps could change thermal structureIncreased dredging of ports could suspend toxic sediments
Source: EPA, 1989; EPA, 1995
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Wastewater systems that combine storm drains, sewage, and industrial waste are still used in about 950 communities, mostly in the Northeast and Great Lakes regions.
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NAST, 2000
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Predicted ocean Predicted ocean warming will alter warming will alter suitable habitats.suitable habitats.
Temperature based Temperature based on Canadian on Canadian Climate Centre Climate Centre model.model.
Blue: current rangeBlue: current range
Red: 2090 range.Red: 2090 range.
Warming Effects on Sockeye SalmonWarming Effects on Sockeye Salmon
December
July
(Welch 1998)(Welch 1998)
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Examples of Seasonal Climate Shifts
UCS, 2003
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The one degree average temperature increase over the last 100 years has not occurred evenly across the globe
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Rainfall has increased 8% over the US in the last 100 years
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Linear trends in the date of the last measurable snow on the ground. Dark areas indicate regions where these trends are statistically significant at the 0.05 level.
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Mountain snowpack is declining
Source: P. Mote, U. of Washington
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OSTP, 1998
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Changing Forest Pathogen Distributions
Impacts of Climate Change
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Observed impacts of temperature-related regional climate change in the 20 th century
Rosenzweig, 25 Oct 2000
Observation period longer than 20 years
Studies using remote sensing
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Emerging worries-- Since the National Assessment (2000) and the IPCC Report (2001)
• Rapid ice melt (Greenland and the Arctic)
• Mortality from heat-waves & disease
• increased intensity of major storms
• increased frequency & intensity of droughts
• increased frequency of great floods
• change in species ranges & behavior
• increased frequency & extent of wildfires
• Increased cost of weather-related disasters
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NASA photograph
Extent of Arctic summer ice in 1979 (top satellite image) and in
2003 (lower satellite image).
Shrinking Polar Ice
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Greenland ice Melting 1992, 2002, and 2005
1992 2002 2005
Source: ACIA, 2004 and CIRES, 2005
In 1992 scientists measured this amount of melting in Greenland as indicated by red areas on the map
Ten years later, in 2002, the melting was much worse
And in 2005, it accelerated dramatically yet again
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Greenland & Antarctic
• IPCC 2001 “central estimate” of ~0.5 meter further sea-level rise by 2100 now looks like an underestimate…maybe a big underestimate.
• All the ice on Greenland ≈ 7 m increase in sea level; ice in WAIS ≈ 5 m.
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Emerging worries (continued)
• deadly heat-waves
“[P]resent-day heat waves over Europe and North America coincide with a specific atmospheric circulation pattern that is intensified by ongoing increases in greenhouse gases, indicating that it will produce more severe heat waves in those regions in the future.” (Science 8/06/04)
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The Human Toll of Heat Waves: Selected Examples from Europe in August 2003
Country Number of Fatalities
France 14,802
Germany 7,000
Spain 4,230
Italy 4,175
UK 2,045
Netherlands 1,400
Portugal 1,316
Belgium 150
TOTAL 35,118
Compiled by Janet Larsen, Earth Policy Institute, October 2003.
Compiled by Janet Larsen, Earth Policy Institute, October 2003.
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Extreme heat waves in Europe are already 2X more frequent due to global warming, with much more to come
Black lines are observed temps, smoothed & unsmoothed; red, blue, & green lines are Hadley Centre simulations w natural & anthropogenic forcing; yellow is natural only.
Asterisk and inset show 2003 heat wave that killed 35,000.
Stott et al., Nature 432: 610-613 (2004)
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Emerging worries (continued)
• increased frequency & intensity of droughts
The amount of land suffering from severe drought has more than doubled in the last 30 years. Almost half of the increase is due to rising temperatures rather than decreases in rainfall or snowfall. (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12/04)
• increased frequency of great floods
“The frequency of great floods increased substantially during the 20th century. The recent emergence of a statistically significant trend in the risk of great floods is consistent with results from the climate model, and the model suggests that the trend will continue.” (Nature, 01/31/02)
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Emerging worries (continued)
• increased intensity of major storms
Current hurricane potential intensity theories, applied to the climate-model environments, yield an average increase of intensity of 8% to 16% for the high-CO2 environments. (Journal of Climate, 9/15/04)
The results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential. (Nature, 8/4/05)
The arguments associating the increase in hurricane intensity with increasing sea surface temperature shows positive trends in both global tropical sea surface temperature and the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes. (ScienceExpress, 3/16/06)
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A gigantic, dangerous storm, Hurricane Katrina takes aim at New Orleans and the Mississippi coast. Photo: NASA
Global warming is warming the oceans. Hurricanes are powered by warm seas.
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Sea Surface Temperature TrendsThe Gulf and Caribbean waters are warm and getting warmer: heat supports development of major hurricanes
Peter Webster, Georgia Tech, 2006
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North Atlantic Ocean
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Nu
mb
er o
f S
torm
s
Named Storms Hurricanes Cat. 4&5
Since 1995, there has been ~50% greater activity than the previous peak period ca. 1950
Peter Webster, Georgia Tech, 2006
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Emerging worries (continued)
• increased frequency & extent of wildfires
Wildfires have been increasing on all continents – particularly sharply in North America – and this trend is predicted to increase under even moderate further increases in global Tavg. (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005, and
Conservation Biology, 08/04).
• impacts on species ranges & behavior
A clear pattern emerges of temporal and spatial sign switches in biotic trends uniquely predicted as responses to climate change. With 279 species (84% of those studied) showing predicted sign switches, this diagnostic indicator increases confidence in a climate-change fingerprint. (Nature, 01/02/03)
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Westerling et al., SCIENCE, 18 August 2006
Correlation of wildfire increases with temperature is clear
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Running, Science, 18 August 2006
This works in part through soil moisture
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Losses from Global Weather Catastrophes 1980-2005
Source: PEW, November, 2006
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Renewables = 4 wedges
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Efficiency= 4 wedges
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Kelly Sims-Gallagher, Harvard, 2006
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Changing Landscape
• Sense of the Senate Resolution(to be followed by real legislation?)
• Pressure coming from– Cities– States– Mainstream corporate
America– Investment– International– Drumbeat of science– New voices: Evangelicals– The election?
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US Mayor’s Climate Protection Agreement
Source: City of Seattle, 2006
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Completed Climate Action Plans
Climate Action Plans
Pew Center, Global Climate Change, 2006
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Renewable Portfolio Standards
ME: 30% by 2000
HI : 20% by 2020
I A: 105 MW
AZ: 15% by 2025
CO: 10% by 2015
NM: 10% by 2011
TX: 10,000 MW by 2025
CA: 20% by 2017
NV: 20% by 2015
MT: 15% by 2015
MN: Xcel 1125 MW by 2010
WI : 10% by 2015
NY: 25% by 2013
MA: 4% New by 2009
DC: 11% by 2022
NJ : 20% by 2020CT: 10% by 2010
MD: 7% by 2008
RI : 16% by 2009
PA: 18% by 2020
Renewable Portfolio Standards
ME: 30% by 2000
HI : 20% by 2020
I A: 105 MW
AZ: 15% by 2025
CO: 10% by 2015
NM: 10% by 2011
TX: 10,000 MW by 2025
CA: 20% by 2017
NV: 20% by 2015
MT: 15% by 2015
MN: Xcel 1125 MW by 2010
WI : 10% by 2015
NY: 25% by 2013
MA: 4% New by 2009
DC: 11% by 2022
NJ : 20% by 2020CT: 10% by 2010
MD: 7% by 2008
RI : 16% by 2009
PA: 18% by 2020
VT: equal to load growth 2005 - 2012
ME: 30% by 2000
HI : 20% by 2020
I A: 105 MW
AZ: 15% by 2025
CO: 10% by 2015
NM: 10% by 2011
TX: 10,000 MW by 2025
CA: 20% by 2010
NV: 20% by 2015
MT: 15% by 2015
MN: Xcel 1125 MW by 2010
WI : 10% by 2015
NY: 25% by 2013
MA: 4% New by 2009
DC: 11% by 2022
NJ : 20% by 2020CT: 10% by 2010
MD: 7% by 2008
RI : 16% by 2009
PA: 18% by 2020
VT: equal to load growth 2005 - 2012
I L: 8% by 2013 †
DE: 10% by 2019
† I L implements its RPS through voluntary utility commitments
WA: 15% by 2020
Pew Center, Global Climate Change, 2006
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GHG Reporting & Registries
Eastern Climate Registry
Registries in Development
Sequestration Board Studying Registries
Lake Michigan Air Directors
Voluntary RegistriesMandatory Reporting
Pew Center, Global Climate Change, 2006
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