Climate Change Mitigation Climate Change Mitigation Policy forPolicy for

Agriculture in Canada:Agriculture in Canada:Horizontal Policy IntegrationHorizontal Policy Integration

June 19, 2004

UNFCCC Workshop, Bonn, Germany

Dr. Robert J. MacGregorDr. Marie Boehm

The Role of Agriculture in GHG MitigationThe Role of Agriculture in GHG Mitigation

• Agriculture responsible for about 10% of national anthropogenic GHG emissions

• Most agricultural emissions are non-point source in nature and vary by climatic and soil conditions

• Mostly non-energy based, nitrous oxide and methane from complex biological processes

• Carbon can be sequestered in soils (sinks) by implementing some types of land management practices

• GHG mitigation strategies lead to other environmental and economic co-benefits

Sustainable development is a priority for Canada and is reflectedin the federal government’s Agricultural Policy Framework (APF)Sustainable development is a priority for Canada and is reflectedin the federal government’s Agricultural Policy Framework (APF)

Agriculture has many unique opportunities to manage greenhouse gases ...Agriculture has many unique opportunities to manage greenhouse gases ...

The challenge is to develop policy integrated with the APF outcomes related to economic and environmental performance

The challenge is to develop policy integrated with the APF outcomes related to economic and environmental performance

ReduceGreenhouse gas

emissions

AgriculturalGHG

Management

Innovate to replace fossil fuels with bio-

based energy, chemicals and materials

ReplaceAtmospheric C to store in soils and perennial

crops

Remove

The climate is goingto change requiring adaptation (ie water

management)

Respond

GHG Mitigation Potential from Agriculture GHG Mitigation Potential from Agriculture

Sink Enhancing Management Practices• Increase no-till

( 350% since 1991)

• Decrease summerfallow( 40% since 1991)

• Increase hay in crop rotation( 27% since 1991)

• Improve grazing management

• Increase permanent cover

• Increase shelterbelts

GHG Source-Reducing Management Practices• Improve nutrient

management

• Improve feeding management

• Improve manure management

Sink Enhancing Management Practices• Increase no-till

( 350% since 1991)

• Decrease summerfallow( 40% since 1991)

• Increase hay in crop rotation( 27% since 1991)

• Improve grazing management

• Increase permanent cover

• Increase shelterbelts

GHG Source-Reducing Management Practices• Improve nutrient

management

• Improve feeding management

• Improve manure management

Soil sinks represent ~90%

of medium-termmitigation potential

Soil sinks represent ~90%

of medium-termmitigation potential

TimeTime

Change in Soil Carbon (Sinks)Change in Soil Carbon (Sinks)

Old managementNew management

Org

an

ic C

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

1990 1999 2010

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

1990 1999 2010

Potential reductionsfrom Business as Usual (BAU) [5 to 20 Mt with

incentives]

Potential reductionsfrom Business as Usual (BAU) [5 to 20 Mt with

incentives]

Gap(6.5 Mt)

Gap(6.5 Mt)

Mt

CO

2e

BAU without sinksBAU without sinks

BAU with sinksBAU with sinks

Source: Canadian Economic and Emission Model, Agriculture (CEEMA)

6% below 19906% below 1990

Agriculture in National Climate Change Plan, 2002: 10 MT BAU plus maybe 10MT more

Agriculture in National Climate Change Plan, 2002: 10 MT BAU plus maybe 10MT more

APF Provincial Environmental Targets:Co-benefits of GHG MitigationAPF Provincial Environmental Targets:Co-benefits of GHG Mitigation

• Environment is one of the major pillars of the Agriculture Policy Framework (APF) in addition to food safety & quality, business risk management, innovation and renewal

• Within Canadian federation, federal, provincial and territorial governments have jointly committed to set specific environmental outcome targets in the areas of air, water and soil quality, and biodiversity

• Targets must be quantitative, measurable and meaningful:

– Scientific link from farm practice to the environment

– Based on adoption of Beneficial Management Practices (BMP’s) for improving environmental performance

– Identify BMP’s where economic incentives also exist

Integrating Science and Economics for PolicyIntegrating Science and Economics for Policy

Agricultural Policy Framework - Develop meaningfuland measurable environmental and farm management

goals

Agricultural Policy Framework - Develop meaningfuland measurable environmental and farm management

goals

IPCC Guidelines

IPCC Guidelines

Systems Approach

(assess direct and indirect emissions of CO2, CH4 and

N2O)

Systems Approach

(assess direct and indirect emissions of CO2, CH4 and

N2O)

Developmentof Mitigation

Scenarios

Developmentof Mitigation

Scenarios

Canadian Scientific Research

Canadian Scientific Research

Expert Opinion- F/P/T

government- Industry- Academics

Expert Opinion- F/P/T

government- Industry- Academics

Changesin GHG

sources and sinks

Changesin GHG

sources and sinks

EconomicImpacts

EconomicImpacts Environmental Co-benefits

of GHG MitigationEnvironmental Co-benefits

of GHG Mitigation

Agri-Environmental

Indicator Project

Agri-Environmental

Indicator Project

Integrated economic/

environmental models

- economic component

- GHG component- links to other AEIs

Integrated economic/

environmental models

- economic component

- GHG component- links to other AEIs

APF Analysis Builds on Climate ChangeAPF Analysis Builds on Climate Change

Selected Scenarios(best management practices)

• Soil Management− Increased use of conservation tillage− Decreased use of summerfallow− Increased use of forage in rotations− Conversion of marginal land to permanent

cover

• Pasture Management– Increased use of complimentary and

rotational grazing

• Nutrient Management– Better management of matching N applied

to crop requirements

• Livestock Management– Improve management of protein in diets

• Agroforestry– Increased use of forestry on marginal

agricultural land

Selected Scenarios(best management practices)

• Soil Management− Increased use of conservation tillage− Decreased use of summerfallow− Increased use of forage in rotations− Conversion of marginal land to permanent

cover

• Pasture Management– Increased use of complimentary and

rotational grazing

• Nutrient Management– Better management of matching N applied

to crop requirements

• Livestock Management– Improve management of protein in diets

• Agroforestry– Increased use of forestry on marginal

agricultural land

Suite of Agri-environmental

Indicators (AEI)

• Greenhouse Gases

• Soil Carbon

• Water Erosion

• Wind Erosion

• Wind Erosion (Prairies)

• Residual Soil Nitrogen

• IROWC-N (East)

• Wildlife Habitat

Suite of Agri-environmental

Indicators (AEI)

• Greenhouse Gases

• Soil Carbon

• Water Erosion

• Wind Erosion

• Wind Erosion (Prairies)

• Residual Soil Nitrogen

• IROWC-N (East)

• Wildlife Habitat

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

GHG IROWCN(Que)

Residual N WaterErosion (Alta)

WindErosion(Sask.)

Biodiversity

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

GHG IROWCN(Que)

Residual N WaterErosion (Alta)

WindErosion(Sask.)

Biodiversity

National Summary of the Percentage Change in AEIsfrom 2008 BAU for Low, Medium and High Adoption Rates

National Summary of the Percentage Change in AEIsfrom 2008 BAU for Low, Medium and High Adoption Rates

Analysis informs federal-provincial negotiations leading to inclusionof specific GHG and other outcome targets in bilateral agreements

Analysis informs federal-provincial negotiations leading to inclusionof specific GHG and other outcome targets in bilateral agreements

Results of APF Analysis – Combined ScenarioResults of APF Analysis – Combined Scenario

APF Environmental Outcome TargetsAPF Environmental Outcome Targets

• For Quebec outcome target changes are:– Residual Nitrogen – a reduction of 8% (about 2kg N/ha)– Risk to Water Quality – Nitrogen – a reduction of 7%– Risk to Soil Erosion from Water – a reduction of 1% (50kg/ha/yr)– Soil Carbon – an increase in the annual change from -0.15 to 0.11

Mt – GHG Emissions – a reduction of 5% (0.4 Mt CO2 e/yr)– Wildlife Habitat Availability – an increase of 0.7%

• For Manitoba outcome target changes are:– Residual Nitrogen – a reduction of 12%– Risk to Soil Erosion from Water – a reduction of 16%– Soil Carbon – an increase in annual change by 373% (from a low

base)– GHG Emissions – a reduction of 22% (about 2Mt CO2 e)– Wildlife Habitat Availability – an increase of 5%APF Environmental Outcome Targets will become basisfor federal/provincial/territorial policies and programsAPF Environmental Outcome Targets will become basisfor federal/provincial/territorial policies and programs

Policy Tools to Achieve APF Outcome Targets: Looking for the Win-WinPolicy Tools to Achieve APF Outcome Targets: Looking for the Win-Win• Environmental Farm Plans; address high priority

environmental issues

• Cost-shared financial incentives for implementation of BMP’s to address environmental risks

• Trees and shrubs for shelterbelts; Renewable energy from biodisgesters demonstrations; Ethanol from grain and cellulose

• Research into next generation BMP’s (Model Farm, and Environmental Technology Assessment)

• Working with stakeholders to increase awareness and promote adoption (GHG Mitigation Program)

• Development of an Offset Credit System for GHG to work in concert with other drivers

Farmers manage complex businesses and their challenge is to"put it all together” to stay in business and meet society’s goalsFarmers manage complex businesses and their challenge is to

"put it all together” to stay in business and meet society’s goals

APF provides us with a way to manage forward for sustainable developmentAPF provides us with a way to manage forward for sustainable development

• All levels of government and stakeholders are involved (federal, provincial, producers, processors, consumers, NGO’s)

• Quantified Targets and Accountability are powerful public policy tools

• Planning tools, such as Environmental Farm Planning to deal with environmental and structural heterogeneity, are critical

• Developing a bio-product/bio-mass based industry is fully consistent with a “Replace” strategy

• Deliver large quantity of soil sinks, some reductions and many co-benefits at a low cost to society (10 to 20Mt)

Finding more efficient and effective ways to manage carbon,nitrogen and energy should contribute to the economic and

environmental elements of sustainable development

Finding more efficient and effective ways to manage carbon,nitrogen and energy should contribute to the economic and

environmental elements of sustainable development