climate change mitigation eu and russia
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Climate change mitigation EU and Russia. Alexander Fedorov Centre for Environmental Initiatives, St.Petersburg Alexey Kokorin WWF-Russia, Moscow. Temperature variations in the 20 th century. Russia. N. Hemisphere. World. Number of dangerous weather events in Russia 1991 - 2005. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 1
Climate change mitigationEU and Russia
Alexander FedorovCentre for Environmental Initiatives, St.Petersburg
Alexey KokorinWWF-Russia, Moscow
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 2
Temperature variations in
the 20th century
Russia
N. Hemisphere
World
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 3
Number of dangerous weather events in Russia 1991 - 2005
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 4
Number of dangerous weather events in Russia 1991 - 2005
70% Warm period (Apr. – Oct.)
30% Cold period (Nov. – March)
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 5
Types of dangerous weather events in Russia 1991 – 2005, %
1 – wind storms; 2 – snow storms; 3 – showers, thunderstorms, hails; 4 – frosts, heats; 5 – floods; 6 – avalanches, mudflows;
7 – draughts; 8 – fires; 9 – others.
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 6
Russian public and stakeholders’ opinions on climate change
3 years ago now
Climate change takes place 50% 90%
Climate Change is negative for Russia 30% 70%
Reason of current climate change is anthropogenic GHG emission 10% 30%
Urgent actions are necessary 5% 10%
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 7
GHG emissions in Russia in 1990-2004
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1990 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Годы
Вы
брос
ы, м
лн.т
. СО
2-эк
в Waste
Industry
Agriculture
Energy Years
Em
issi
ons,
Mt
CO
2-e
q.
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 8
GDP power intensity in 5 regions of the world
Energy consumption for production of 1 M€ GDP (toe, 2003)
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 9
The Russian GDP Power Intensity
GDP and Use of Energy and Heat, % of 1990
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1990
1995
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
es
timat
e
GDP Energy use
Clear difference between GDP and GHG emissions trends
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 10
Russian MEDT post-2012 scenario(Russian Ministry of Economic Development and Trade)
MEDT Fast Development Scenario GHG emisisons in 1990-2015 Mt СО2-eq
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
2015: -22% of 1990; 2020: -17% of 1990
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 11
Official view of MEDT www.economy.gov.ru
● Russia shares global responsibility for increase of GHG emissions, and aims to reach the UNFCCC goals, based on the necessity of limiting technogenic emissions and increase of absorption by GHG absorbers in accordance with its economic opportunities and principles of sustainable development.
● Presently, Russia decreases the GDP power intensity by 4 percent per year and more.
● Analysis of the EU Emissions Trading Schemes (EU ETS) shows that in the foreseeable future (2013 – 2017) Russian business will not be able to use this system in a considerable scope.
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 12
Progress in Kyoto Protocol implementation in Russia
● Progress in GHG Inventory and Registry
Problems:
● Absence of sense of urgency
● Politicians, stakeholders and public (70%) are not sure that current climate change is anthropogenic
● Suspending of Joint Implementation (JI) projects (30-50 projects) due to absence of progress in domestic JI Regulation
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 13
Consequences of climate change in the Baltic Sea Region
● Neva River run-off increasing: 10% by 2015=> decreasing salinity in the Baltic Sea
● Ice weakening=> damage to grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and
ringed seals (Phoca hispida botnica)
● Number of dangerous weather events growing: ~ 7% per year (almost twice by 2015)
● Winds pressure on power transmission line increasing:~ 20% in 10 years
● Ground waters rising=> damage to buildings & agriculture
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 14
Proposal 1
EU:
● Work also with other actors in Russia, including NGOs, additionally to governmental institutions, to find partners for JIPs in Russia, to considerably broaden the choice
Russia:
● Put down barriers to JIPs,
incl.:
- simplify JIPs registration to ‘one window’ procedures
- low down the threshold limit for a project
- etc.
Foster Joint Implementation projects
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 15
Proposal 2
EU:
● Share/transfer experience
● Co-operate with NGOs
Russia:
● Adopt relevant laws
● Adopt relevant state programmes
● Co-operate with NGOs
Foster Energy Efficiency and Renewables
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 16
Climate change mitigationEU and Russia
Alexander FedorovCentre for Environmental Initiatives, St.Petersburg
Alexey KokorinWWF-Russia, Moscow
Thank you for your attention!