climate change is bangladesh really vulnerable

7/29/2019 Climate Change is Bangladesh Really Vulnerable

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CLIMATE CHANGE: BANGLADESH

PERSPECTIVE

Kazi Farhed Iqubal

Department of Environmental Science

State University of Bangladesh



C LIMATE Climate in a narrow sense is usual ly defined as the

“average weather”, or more rigorously, as the statistical descr ipt ion in terms o f the mean and var iabi l i ty of

relevant quant i t ies over a per iod o f t ime ranging from

mon ths to th ousands or m i l lions o f years. The classical

period is 30 years, as defined b y the WMO. These quant i t ies are most often su rface var iables su ch as

temperature, precip i tat ion , and w ind .

The climate of a location is affected by its latitude,terrain, altitude, persistent ice or snow cover, as well as

nearby oceans and their currents.

Climate in a wider sense is the state, inc lud ing a

stat ist ical descript io n, of the cl imate system



CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change is any long-term significant change in

the “average weather” of a region or the earth as a

whole. Average weather may include average

temperature, precipitation and wind patterns. It involves

changes in the variability or average state of the

atmosphere over decades to millions of years. These

changes can be caused by dynamic processes on

Earth, external forces including variations in sunlight

intensity, and more recently by human activities. In recent usage, especially in the context of

environmental policy, the term "climate change" usually

refers to changes in modern climate



C AUSE OF CC

Increased GHG emission following industrial

revolution ( burning fossil fuel, industrialization etc.)

Increased GHG level in the atmosphere

More heat energy from sunlight absorbed byincreased GHG in the atmosphere

Overall temperature of the planet increased (global

warming)

Changes in the precipitation and wind pattern alongwith the temperature (over 30 years avg or more)

are referred as CC



CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT



GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL OF MAJOR GREENHOUSE GAS

Carbon dioxide (CO2) GWP 1

Methane (CH4) GWP 24

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) GWP 310

CFC12 (CCI2F2) GWP 6200-7200

HCFC22(CHCIF2) GWP 1300-1400

Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) GWP 22200



Sources of GHGs

Energy Sector

• Energy Industry• Manufacturing Industries

• Transport

• Residential Sector

• Commercial

• Agriculture

Agriculture Sector

• Crop Agriculture

• Livestock and Manure Management-

Landuse Change and Forestry

• Conversion of Land

• Consumption of Timber and Deforestation



APPROACHES TO SOLUTIONS AND

ACTIONS Mitigation

Kyoto Protocol (the first limited action)

Kyoto mechanisms (CDM, JI, Emissions Trading)

Adaptation

Technology transfer

Adequate fund flow ( AF, LDCF, SCCF, MDTF,

BCCF, etc.)



CLIMATE CHANGE AND B ANGLADESH



B ANGLADESH: A SOUTH ASIAN COUNTRY



COUNTRY CONTEXT AND VULNERABILITY

Deltaic landscape, 80%floodplain

Population density very high (1045/km2)

High level of Poverty (less than $1 a day 29%, less than $2a day 84%)

Disaster prone, people are exposed to hazards Natural resources based (predominantly agrarian)

economy

Recognized globally as most vulnerable to ClimateChange



CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS: MAKES IT WORSE

More floods ( 1998, 2004, 2007, water logging, flashflood)

Increased moisture stress (droughts, even in the CoastalZone)

Intensified cyclone, wind, storm surge, turbulent sea,precipitation

Salinity intrusion (100 km in to the country side during dryseason)

Greater temperature extremes

Slow-onset impacts (salinization, dryness, ecosystemdegradation etc.)



IPCC PROJECTION (AR 4)

The annual mean rainfall exhibits increasing trends in Bangladesh.Decadal rain anomalies are above long term averages since 1960s.

Serious and recurring floods have taken place during 2002, 2003, and2004. Cyclones originating from the Bay of Bengal have been noted todecrease since 1970 but the intensity has increased.

Water shortages has been attributed to rapid urbanization andindustrialization, population growth and inefficient water use, which areaggravated by changing climate and its adverse impacts on demand,supply and water quality.

Salt water from the Bay of Bengal is reported to have penetrated 100km or more inland along tributary channels during the dry season.

The precipitation decline and droughts has resulted in the drying up of

wetlands and severe degradation of ecosystems.



0 SLR

32 cm SLR

88 cm SLR

Drought HazardsFlood Hazards

Cyclone Salinity



Climate Change Challenges Development

Affects…

-Agriculture, Industry, Health, Infrastructure and others

-Ecosystems, Special areas

(EPZ, Coastal zones, etc.)

-Farmers, Fishermen, Natural resource collectors

-People living in marginal land

-Women, child & disadvantaged groups



Gradual impacts Agriculture

Flood, flash flood, droughts, salinity, precipitation pattern

Rice and wheat production reduce 8% and 32% respectively by 2050 Fisheries impacted negatively (salinity intrusion, fisheries recruitment etc)

Water

Flood/flash flood timing

Increased precipitation in the catchments bring more water which is beyond drainage

capacity, infrastructure insufficient capacity Urban flooding, drainage congestion (drainage infrastructure and channels are

insufficient)

Salinity intrusion (irrigation, domestic use, drinking water)

Trans-boundary water issues



Gradual Impacts Health

Increased water and vector borne diseases

Increased diseases due to salinity and water logging Sanitation, safe drinking water

Coastal zone

Intensified cyclone

Increased/ storm surges, wave heights, turbulent sea

Salinity intrusion, soil salinity, ground water salinity

Special areas

Ecosystems

Areas with high economic importance (Export Process Zone, ports etc)

Most vulnerable groups

Women, children, elderly

Disadvantaged groups (ethnic, fisher, Sundarban dependent etc)



CC impacting livelihoods -an example

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

N o .

o f d a y s w i t h s i g

n a l 3 o r m o r e



Climate Change – Disaster Risks

Increased SST potential for more cyclone landfall and storm surges

Increased rain during monsoon/post monsoon in upper catchment & or within

Bangladesh leads to more floods and disasters

Water shortage and higher temperature results into acute and more spread

droughts

More erosion

Infrastructures: threat past gains and needs new design



R ESPONSE

National

Government

Civil society

International UNFCCC, Kyoto protocol, Negotiation, funding

mechanism

Development partners



Response National

Kyoto Protocol, UNFCCC ratified

A large number of studies

NAPA, National communication

International process (Negotiation)

Climate Change Cell

BCCSAP 2009

BCCF



CIVIL SOCIETY

Championed the concern in country/abroad, active earlier

Work closely/partnerships with Government entities (NAPA,

national communication, etc.)

Part of country delegation to COP/MOP

Numerous studies, assessments (over 100)

Civi l soc iety ini t iat ives are on the ground , pi lot ing and

demons trat ion and bui ld ing communi ty resi l ience

Government learns from these and u ptake for scale up and inst i tut ional izat ion



THANKS

climate change is bangladesh really vulnerable

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