Climate Change in the Arab

Region

2015

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Lead Author:

United Nations Environment Programme, Regional Office for West Asia (UNEP/ROWA)

Contributing Authors: ESCWA Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

Reviewed by:

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

UNHABITAT United Nations Human Settlements Programme

Disclaimer: This issues brief was prepared as a background document for the forthcoming Arab Sustainable

Development Report. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of

the United Nations. Document issued as received, without formal editing.

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1. Introduction Of the many environmental issues that face the world today climate change stands out as one that is

overarching and affects the entire planet, widely detrimental to humanity and ultimately will not be easily

reversed if we reach the tipping point, which, according to many reports, we are heading towards.

2. Trends relating to Climate Change The Arab region is a prime example of the potential adverse impacts of climate change on a number of social,

economic and environmental levels. Through its unique geography, the challenge for the region is not only that

it stands amongst the most vulnerable to future effects of climate change; but indeed that it is today starting to

live the reality that is climate change.

Temperature trends Temperature is one of the most recognizable and telling indicators of climate change. Due to factors such as

elevated solar radiation and heat absorbent soils the region has a considerably higher probability of being

affected by increasing temperatures predicted under climate change scenarios than some others. Through the

UN-LAS Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Socio-

Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region (RICCAR)1, temperature and rainfall distribution projections were

made for the Arab region up to the year 2100 by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)

within the scope of RICCAR modeling activities.

In combining climate change impact assessment and vulnerability assessment tools, RICCAR completed a

dynamic downscaling regional climate modeling for the Arab Domain for Representative Concentration

Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 (a medium scenario) and RCP 8.5 (the highest scenario) at 50x50 scale, and with RCP

8.5 also at 25x25 scale. A minimum of three projections were generated for each RCP and scale. The results

have been compared with a globally run Global Climate Models (GCM) as well as the results for the Africa

Domain (which is not as wide as the Arab Domain), and these are generally consistent.

In terms of the temperature trends, for the period 2011-2041, both the average and maximum scenarios are

projecting almost similar changes in temperature, in the range of 0-2ºC, while on the longer horizon of 2041-

2070, the maximum scenarios exhibit temperature changes rising by up to 3-4ºC compared to changes of 1-2ºC

with the average scenario. These trends are illustrated in Figure 1. It should be noted that this equates with

the equivalent scenarios that were included in the IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). There are other regional

results included in the AR5 using the same scenarios but not the same Arab Domain. The West Asia and African

domains were used in the AR5 and could be compared with the RICCAR results.

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FIGURE 1 PROJECTED CHANGES IN FUTURE TEMPERATURE DURING THREE TIME PERIODS (2011-2040, 2041-2070 AND 2071-

2100) USING THREE GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODELS (GCM) AND REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS DOWNSCALED FORM THE 3

GCM’S (RCA4) FOR THE SUMMER MONTHS (JJA) FOR THE AVERAGE SCENARIO (RCP 4.5) AND THE MAXIMUM SCENARIO (RCP

8.5)-SMHI

Rainfall distribution The RICCAR-generated projections of precipitation during the summer months (Figure 2) show that

precipitation will exhibit larger variability compared to temperature projections seen above with the change

over the Arab region ranging from -0.5 to 0.5 mm/day with reduced patterns in precipitation towards the end

of the century (the longer term scenario).

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FIGURE 2 PROJECTED CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION DURING THREE TIME PERIODS (2011-2040, 2041-2070 AND 2071-2100)

USING THREE GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODELS (GCM) AND REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS DOWNSCALED FORM THE 3 GCM’S

(RCA4) FOR THE SUMMER MONTHS (JJA) FOR THE AVERAGE SCENARIO (RCP4.5) AND THE MAXIMUM SCENARIO (RCP8.5) -

SMHI

Drought in the Arab region Drought is a natural disaster phenomenon that threatens much of the Arab region, often due to significantly

lower than average long term mean rainfall, less than average river flows, or groundwater resource depletion.

A drought can be short- or long-term spanning beyond ten years as with the African Sudanese-Sahel belt from

1968 to 19842. Recurrent droughts are extremely detrimental to land productivity in irrigated agriculture, rain-

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fed farming and rangelands, and can exacerbate land degradation, water resources scarcity and ultimately food

security of the region. Effects of drought incidents have been felt throughout the region in what is a

reoccurring theme: in the 1950s, drought led to the death of most rangeland animals in the northern and

eastern parts of the Arabian Peninsula. In Jordan, the average agricultural production declined by 25–50% in

1999–2000 and agricultural production entirely failed in many areas of land. Furthermore, wheat production

declined by 12–20 % of the total average, and the productivity of rangelands declined by 50%. In that season,

agricultural production losses as a result of drought were estimated at around US$57 million3. More recently,

the latest figures show that rainfall to September 2014 was less than half the average expected.

While drought episodes can be seen as a natural phenomenon dating back millennia, their frequency and

intensity are seen to be increasing, making this aspect of climate change an immense and immediate threat to

the region. Land degradation and desertification come at the forefront of risks the region faces. Home to some

of the world’s largest and harshest desert lands, extreme temperatures, reduced rainfall make the region

highly vulnerable to land degradation and desertification, defined as “the diminution or destruction of the

biological potential of land, and can lead ultimately to desert-like conditions. It is an aspect of the widespread

deterioration of ecosystems, and has diminished or destroyed the biological potential, i.e. plant and animal

production, for multiple use purposes at a time when increased productivity is needed to support growing

populations in quest of development.”4

Other Extreme weather trends Extreme weather events are being cited as one impact of climate change and these can have severe impacts on

infrastructure, society, economy and human health as well as other key sectors much more than the average

climate. Also indicative of the volatility of the current climate change situation in the region is its high

propensity to extreme climate conditions such as flash floods and prolonged droughts and also Cyclone Gonu

which impacted the region, especially Oman, in 2007.

In a region of already intensely hot summer, impacting on water supply, health of the vulnerable and seeing

peak energy demands for cooling impact energy supply, the RICCAR projections in Figure 3 show significant

warming trends and increase in summer days (annual number of days when Maximum Temperature - Tmax >

25oC) by the end of the century throughout the entire Arab region.

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FIGURE 3 CHANGES IN THE NUMBER OF “SUMMER DAYS” (SU, TMAX > 25OC) FOR ENSEMBLES OF THREE PROJECTIONS FOR BOTH

RCP4.5 AND RCP 8.5 FOR THE PERIOD 2081 – 2100 COMPARED TO THE BASE PERIOD 1986-2005.

3. Arab Region Vulnerability to Climate Change

Water scarcity Water is arguably the most important resource on the planet for human settlement and betterment. Water has

played an integral role in the Arab countries’ history and a vast imprint on their cultural identity. The Arab

countries can be segmented to 5 sub regions based on their freshwater supplies and needs5:

The Mashreq sub-region in which Iraq Syria and Lebanon depend on rivers that originate beyond their borders

and are predominated by a reasonable intensity of rainfall and ground water resources. Jordan and Palestine

are the poorest in this region depending on the Jordan River and very limited rainfall and groundwater;

The Maghreb sub-region is predominated by a high dependency on rainfall and modest groundwater reserve;

The Nile Basin Region is highly dependent on the River Nile, with southern Sudan enjoying high precipitation;

this however decreases heading north into Egypt in which the dependency on the Nile accounts for 95 percent

of the water needs;

The Arabian Peninsula is noted to be the poorest region in terms of water supplies, with dwindling to

nonexistent rainfall and ground water leaving the region highly dependent on desalination with the exception

of Yemen’s dependence on rainfall;

The Sahel Countries depend highly on rainfall with small potential of groundwater.

In a part of the world that is predominated by an arid to semi-arid climate, most of the region is predominated

by water scarcity. IPCC reports classify Arab arid and semi arid land as highly vulnerable to climate change6. Of

the many aspects that climate change impacts on, water stands out as a resource that is integral to human well

being yet at critical risk in the region, with variations of effects evident. Identified as the first region globally to

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run out of fresh water the region faces a water scarcity issue that can only be further compounded by climate

change7.

The countries that depend on rivers are vulnerable to reduced and increased flows induced by climate change,

and they are further impacted by practices in upstream riparian countries; the Maghreb countries are

extremely vulnerable due to their high dependence on rainfall; Jordan and Palestine have a unique

vulnerability demarcated by the threat of climate change and political instability that governs the use and

management of the already stressed Jordan River; and finally, and paradoxically the region with the least

threat of water scarcity is the Arabian peninsula due to the non-existent water supplies, this however is not to

claim that the region will not feel the adverse effects under different scopes of addressing water supplies.

Overall, climate change is expected to further exacerbate water resource challenges. As demonstrated in the

trends discussions above, the region is expected to have higher temperatures and lower precipitation in the

coming years, leading to higher incidence of drought, and hence a reduction in available water against a

backdrop of rising population numbers and hence demand.

Sea Level Rise (SLR) and Coastal Zones The countries of the Arab region boast vast extended coastal zones on the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea, the

Gulf and the Atlantic, with large percentages of the population living in a number of highly populated coastal

cities. Concentrated urbanisation and socio-economic development of the coastal zones makes the Arab

region among the world’s most vulnerable regions to the effects of SLR with a great emphasis on agricultural

productivity, sizeable loss of coastal low-lying areas and threatened coastal communities (both urban centres

and industrial development)8. SLR could further impact a staggering 43 port cities in the region; a 0.5 m rise

would displace nearly 2 million people in Alexandria, Egypt, and cause an estimated $35 billion loss9 Figure 4

demonstrates visually the impacts of various scenarios of sea level rise on the Nile Delta area.

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FIGURE 4 IMPACTS OF VARIOUS SCENARIOS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE NILE DELTA AREA.

Source: University of North Carolina Wilmington -The Laboratory for Remote Sensing (LRS)

Under a scenario of 1m SLR, the Arab countries face a direct impact on an estimated 41,500 km2 of territory

affecting at least 37 million people, with higher scenarios threatening more adverse impacts on people and

human settlements, and at the highest of 5 meter SLR leading to an estimated 113,000 km2 of coastal areas

being inundated10. To present the impacts compared with the average global situation; with a 1m SLR, 3.2% of

the region’s population would be impacted (vs. 1.28% worldwide), 1.49% of its GDP (vs. 1.30% worldwide),

1.94% of its urban population (vs. 1.02% worldwide), and 3.32% of its wetlands (vs. 1.86% worldwide)11.

Furthermore, of the 22 Arab states 6 (Bahrain, Kuwait, Djibouti, Comoro, Palestine and Lebanon) host 100% of

their populations within 100 km of the coast12. Figures 5 and 6 below demonstrate land area inundation and

GDP impacts of selected Arab countries under various SLR scenarios.

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FIGURE 5 A COMPARISON OF PERCENTAGE IMPACTS OF SLR ON LAND AREAS OF ARAB COUNTRIES

FIGURE 6 A COMPARISON OF PERCENTAGE IMPACTS OF SLR ON THE GDP OF ARAB COUNTRIES

Food Security Intrinsic to human settlement and human needs is the question of food. With a high proportion of land under

desert, prevailing arid conditions and scarce water supplies, alongside in some cases poor and unsustainable

agricultural practices the region finds itself facing a questionable food sustainability model. With the current

cultivated land in the region accounting for nearly 5% of the global cultivated land, and considering the

dominant method of agriculture being rainfed; the region’s food supplies and agricultural needs are highly

vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change with a great emphasis on the incidents of extreme weather

such as drought and floods that have been notably rising in the region13.

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Climate Migration: The vulnerabilities highlighted above can impact directly on people’s lives and livelihoods. A

clear example of climate change migration is that which took place in Syria in recent years. In the period of

2006-2011 nearly 60% of Syria suffered the worst drought and severe failure crop in the country’s modern

history14. This drought and crop failure has set a vast social and economic strain on the population susceptible

to such events. In 2009 over 800,000 Syrians lost their entire livelihood as a result of the droughts, with a

further exposure of nearly one million people in 2011 to food insecurity15. In 2010, an estimated 200,000

people migrated from their agricultural farmlands to urban areas in what seems to be a great farmer exodus,

due to such weather events16.

Rural and agricultural populations often have a higher vulnerability to volatile weather variation and extreme

weather events ranging from droughts to floods, and migration is one of the solutions at the disposal of many

rural and agricultural populations in the Arab region. This migration however is not only limited to such

communities. While many are expected to migrate due to the effects of climate change on water resources and

agricultural capacities, many others are at the same level of risk based on inundation and sea level rise.

While Syria may have been amongst the first to feel the brunt of the climate change, the region is periled with

such instances in which farmers dependent on rain and scarce water resources have to make the difficult

choice between fight and flight, a choice that has often been already made for them. This remains as a matter

of integral significance to the region; with dwindling resources highly vulnerable to climate change and highly

congested urban centers: while farmlands are under threat of low rainfall and weak crop productivity; urban

centers are at risk of further population concentration, resource stress and unsustainability.

Mitigation The international community has focussed much effort towards mitigating climate change, addressing

emissions and aiming to reduce those with the highest Global Warming Potential. The Arab region, while

engaged in international negotiations, discussions, and capacity development activities, is still perhaps behind

some other regions (particularly in relation to per capita consumption figures). This shortcoming however is

not to be misconstrued as reluctance to act, but can be seen perhaps as a general lack of capacity alongside the

nature of industry in the oil-producing countries which have petrochemicals at their heart.

However, due in part to the severity and grave vulnerability of the Arab countries alongside internal action on

the matter, climate change issues have gained a foothold in the region, with the Arab region displaying various

efforts to combat climate change and its effects through various approaches including international

agreements and conventions, building resilience capacities and progressing knowledge on the issues at hand.

CO2 emissions and their mitigation: Due to its nature as a global problem, climate change and its adverse

effects must be addressed accordingly. Stemming from this shared responsibility the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims for the stabilization of greenhouse gas

concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the

climate system. Accordingly, under Article 4.1(b) of the Convention, all Parties, including the Arab countries,

are required to undertake efforts to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and or enhance GHG sinks17.

Furthermore the Arab states recognize this need and as such all 22 Arab states are effectively members to the

UNFCCC18 in the aim to join the international efforts to combat climate change.

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Through the immense and immediate vulnerability, and the urgent need for action many efforts of mitigation

have taken place in the Arab world, shaped by a mainstreaming and at times commercialization of climate

change measures. The region has seen various efforts including: commercialization of wind energy in Egypt;

widespread use of solar heating in Palestine, Tunisia, and Morocco; the introduction of compressed natural gas

(CNG) as a transport fuel in Egypt; the first concentrated solar power projects in Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, and

Algeria; the first two Arab green building councils in the UAE and Egypt; the massive forestation programme in

the UAE; Masdar, the first zero-carbon city in Abu Dhabi; the pioneering carbon capture and storage project in

Algeria; and Jordan’s introduction of duty and tax exemptions to encourage the import of hybrid cars19.

Although these efforts are immense and are ultimately a step in the right direction they remain scattered and

are individual projects and initiatives, there remains a lack of overarching policy that would ultimately ensure

best climate practices.

Adaptation and Resilience Measures The Regional Initiative for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Socio-Economic

Vulnerability in the Arab Region (RICCAR)20, through its mandate and utilizing a consultative and integrated

approach alongside assessing the impact of climate change on freshwater resources in the Arab Region to

identify the socio-economic and environmental vulnerability caused by climate change impacts on water

resources in the Arab region, with outcomes aiming at providing a common platform for addressing and

responding to climate change impacts on freshwater resources in the Arab region by providing the basis for

dialogue, priority setting and policy formulation on climate change adaptation at the regional level21.

Furthermore, the Arab Climate and Resilience Initiative (ACRI) is a regional initiative that aims to support and

build resolve to formulate integrated, cross-sectoral and regional responses to the challenges of climate

change and to facilitate practical and cooperative adaptation to ongoing and future impacts22.

Hosting a large portion of the population and playing an integral role to the economy, urban centres in the

Arab region are at a special risk to climate change. Of the many effects earlier displayed, SLR is one that comes

to threaten both the inhabitants and functions of urban centres in the region. Coupled with a weak urban

infrastructure in many of the Arab countries, the abilities of these urban centres to take action against climate

change are of great significance to the resilience and well being of the population. This matter has gained the

attention of various parties including the US Green Building Council (USGBC) who since the mid-1990s led the

movement from within the design and architecture sector for green buildings through its Leadership in

Environment, Energy and Design (LEED) Program of which four Arab countries the UAE, Egypt, Morocco, and

Mauritania are currently in pursuit23.

Further efforts to increase the resilience of Arab countries are exemplified through an international effort to

address the matter. The event, “Increasing the Resilience of Cities in the Middle East and North Africa," was

hosted by the World Bank Centre for Mediterranean Integration, with financial support from the Global Facility

for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) including mayors and deputy mayors from 15 cities and 13

countries in the Mediterranean and MENA24. Similar efforts to advance the Arab resilience to climate change

effects are underway by other international regional and sub regional organization to address the amplified

effects the region suffers from climate change; in which the number of disasters in have almost tripled since

the 1980s while globally have almost doubled, disasters that cost the region US$19 billion over the past 30

years25.

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Education, research and development Awareness has also been a facet of great action in the effort to combat climate change. This includes

knowledge products and their dissemination through the UNFCCC National Communications. Further bodies of

research and assessments are presented through various international bodies both pertaining to the UN

system and beyond. Such bodies of knowledge serve a great role in supporting the policy initiatives and

educating the public on matters of climate change and the adverse effects it has, furthering awareness to

mobilize grassroots action and aiding in the mainstreaming of policy.

It can perhaps be seen that some reluctance in taking the initiative to address climate change on a local and

regional level has produced a knowledge stalemate, in which countries rely on external models for the

measurement and assessment of climate change. The knowledge gap produces a developmental gap that

inherently is not viable for the region as it relies upon models and mechanisms that are essentially imported

and by that do not address the various intricacies facing a region under the immense threat of climate change.

RICCAR has gone some way to fill this gap, but more can perhaps be done at the academic and governmental

R&D levels.

There are however various efforts as noted earlier in which knowledge centers are being set up in the region

paving the way for relevant case sensitive knowledge that addresses the immediate situation and needs of the

Arab region. RCM runs were compared with GCM results for some maps to show differences in rainfall and

temperature. Also, there are a number climate centers in the region are doing some runs on the same Arab

Domain using various models with partners including the Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research

(CECCR) in King Abdulaziz University, in KSA and King Abdalla University for Science and Technology (KAUST) in

KSA in addition to other institutions/universities in Turkey and Cyprus who will upload their NetCDF files on

CORDEX site when their results are available.

4. Analysis of Proposed SDG and Targets from an Arab Perspective In accordance with the Arab High Level Forum on Sustainable Development (Amman, 2-4 April 2014) a regional

SDG addressing climate change specifically has not been elaborated, based partly on the fact that climate

change is a cross-cutting issue for the region and themes of climate change can be found as targets in other

goals identified by the Forum. Furthermore and integral to the issue at hand; initiatives to address climate

change have been heavily reliant on donor funding. While this has come to be an expected on the part of some

countries under the common but differentiated responsibilities mantra, it poses the question of the region’s

true commitment to battling climate change particularly with such obvious impacts for its populations.

At the global level, the indicators identified under SDG13 do hold relevance for the Arab region, some more so

than others. Over the past decade, and in response to the impacts of climate change already being felt by the

region, a large body of work has been undertaken to strengthen the resilience and adaptive capacity to climate

related hazards and natural disasters. This work is set to continue apace as instances of drought have an

impact on agricultural capacity and food security.

In recognition of the cross-cutting nature of climate change it would be hugely beneficial to see climate change

measures integrated into national policies, strategies, and planning, perhaps alongside environmental and

disaster risk reduction mainstreaming as part of an integrated approach to sustainable development.

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In recognition of the region’s emphasis on CBDR, the commitment undertaken by developed country Parties to

the UNFCCC to a goal of mobilizing jointly USD100 billion annually by 2020 from all sources to address the

needs of developing countries in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on

implementation and fully operationalize the Green Climate Fund through its capitalization as soon as possible,

should be seen as a core part of the developed world’s commitment to climate change alleviation. This

commitment is in support of efforts by all countries of the world to take action on climate change and cannot

be used as a reason for inaction. The development of partnerships and promotion of South-South and

Triangular Cooperation initiatives in climate change action should also be indentified and enhanced. There are

already success stories in the region, how to replicate these through intra- and inter-regional cooperation could

be a focus of discussions at the negotiating tables.

To be truly effective however, such resilience and adaption strategies need to be supported by improved

education, awareness raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation,

impact reduction, and early warning. A focus of such initiatives should be towards the development fully

participatory approaches, engaging all stakeholders. This also links with the need to raise capacities for

effective climate change related planning and management, in LDCs, including focusing on women, youth, local

and marginalized communities to enhance the response already being developed. As highlighted, there are

success stories in the region, how to increase their number and effectiveness will depend on the capacities of

all stakeholders at all levels.

5. Major Success Stories

Yemen: Adapting to Climate Change by Exploiting Agro-biodiversity in the Rain-fed

highlands (2010-2014)26 Through GEF funding the agro-biodiversity and climate adaptation project in Yemen formulated an innovative

method to tackle climate change through sustainable means. With 40% percent of the population living in

poverty, many of the country’s poor live in highland rural areas ones that are also known to be one of the

driest and harshest terrains in the world; in which rain-fed cultivation remains the main means of livelihood in

the region. Because the practice is very old dating back centuries, the crops selected by farmers are of genetic

varieties that proved to have better resistance to drought disease and pests. Such practices however, are

declining due to the sizable urban migration in the region. Stemming from its significance to strengthening

climate resilience in agro-ecosystems and from the methods significance to enhance the national capacity of

climate modelling and analysis, and building on an established history of lending for the agricultural sector; the

Yemeni government alongside the World Bank are channelling GEF funding to support the Agro- biodiversity

and Climate Adaptation Project. The project set out to develop national capacities in climate modelling and

analysis, including climate proofing, rain-fed agriculture and the basis for climate resilient development.

Egypt: Kureimat Solar Thermal Hybrid project, (2007-2011) 27 Through GEF funding the government of Egypt was able to increase its share of renewable energy by building

innovative commercial-scale solar energy assisted power plants. Concentrating solar power allows for the

power of the sun to be harnessed through mirrors that reflect, concentrate and/or capture the suns energy

onto receivers and through which energy is transferred as heat. Furthermore, using steam turbines or heat

engine driving a generator the heat is transferred to electricity that is accessible and dispatch ready. Completed

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in 2011, the Kureimat project is not only highly innovative but is also one of the first commercial fully

dispatchable hybrid CSP-combined cycle power plant projects in the world.

Morocco: Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC) Power (2007-2011) 28 Economic development, population growth, universal access to energy and an overall growth in demand have

all notably increased Morocco’s consumption of energy. Under a global GEF-supported program designed to

accelerate cost reduction and the commercial adoption of large-scale low-greenhouse-gas (GHG) emitting

generation technologies the Moroccan government with support from the World Bank was able to secure GEF

funding to finance an ISCC power plant, additional financing needs were met by the government and the

African Development Bank. The Ain Beni Mathar Integrated Solar Combined Cycle power plant was

commissioned in October 2010. It integrates solar energy collection and fossil-fired power-generating element.

The project is one of the first power plants ever built in the world that integrates concentrated solar power

(CSP) and natural gas on a large scale. Since 2011 the project has been running at the projected capacity and

has had positive social and economic outcomes on the local communities, through job creation, infrastructure

enhancement and connectivity and access for the rural poor.

Tunisia: The Tunisian Energy Efficiency Project (2004-2011)29 The early 2000s marked a turning point for Tunisia that many countries in the world would have to make; after

completely depleting local oil reserves Tunisia became a net importer of energy. Fuelled by a growing

expenditure on energy and an increasing demand for energy, Tunisia adopted an aggressive energy efficiency

strategy. Stemming from this strategy the Tunisian government further sought to increase the energy efficiency

of the industrial sector that accounted for 36% of energy consumption. Through adopting the proper policy

framework, the Tunisian energy efficiency project was designed to overcome institutional and capacity

barriers. At the industrial level the project sought to provide an incentive based model through output

subsidization to attract further industrial participation. Furthermore incentives were packaged as access to

guarantees in which energy efficient investments would entitle companies to receive a 75% guarantee against

loans required of up to US$200,000. By the time the project was complete more than 230 energy efficiency

program contracts had been approved, investment in energy efficiency surpassed US$150 million which itself

vastly exceeded the initial target of US$ 25 million and emissions were reduced by 130,000 tons of CO2/year.

6. References • Climate Change: Middle East Faces Looming Challenge, Quarterly Publication - The World Bank Middle

East Department – Lebanon FIRST/SECOND QUARTER 2010

• Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries: A Case for Adaptation Governance and

Leadership in Building Climate Resilience 2012 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development

/ International Development Association or The World Bank

• Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East: (J. Lelieveld & P.

Hadjinicolaou & E. Kostopoulou & Chenoweth & M. El Maayar & C. Giannakopoulos & C. Hannides & M.

A. Lange & M. Tanarhte & E. Tyrlis & E. Xoplaki, 2012)

• Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) Arab High Level Forum on Sustainable

Development Amman, 2-4 April 2014

• Introduction to The Proposal of the Open Working Group for Sustainable Development Goals 19 July

2014

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• AFED, 2009. Arab Environment: Climate Change – Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries.

Mostafa K. Tolba and Najib W. Saab (Eds.). Report of the Arab Forum for Environment and

Development, 2009

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation

and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der

Linden and C.E. Hanson (Eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York,

NY, USA

• Dasgupta, S., B. Laplante, C. Meisner, and J. Yan (2007). The impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing

Countries: A Comparative Study. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4136, February 2007.

• Dasgupta, S., B. Laplante, S. Murray and D. Wheeler (2009). Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surges: A

Comparative Analysis of Impacts in Developing Countries. World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper

4901.

• The World Bank’s GEF Program in The Middle East and North Africa Region: Global Environmental

Benefits Contributing to National Development Goals, Undated.

• RICCAR escwa.un.org accessed on 26 November 2014

• Ibrahim Abdel Gelil, United Nations Development Programme Regional Bureau for Arab States, Arab

Climate Resilience Initiative Climate Change: Economic challenges and Opportunities in the Arab

Regions (undated)

• 2014 GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY www.gfdrr.org accessed on 26

November 2014

• UNFCCC Website. http://www.unfccc.int accessed on 26 November 2014

7. Footnotes 1 ESCWA coordinates a United Nations-League of Arab States Regional Initiative for Climate Change assessment and action in the Arab

Region (RICCAR), which involves 11 implementing partners namely LAS, ESCWA, FAO, UNEP, UNESCO, UNU-INWEH, UNISDR, WMO, the

Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands (ACSAD), the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and GIZ

along with national institutions in the 22 Arab countries. The Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the

German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) financially support RICCAR.

2 AFED, 2008. Arab Environment: Future Challenges. Mostafa K. Tolba and Najib W. Saab (Eds.). Report of the Arab Forum for

Environment and Development, 2008

3 UNEP 2010, Environment Outlook For the Arab Region, Environment for Development and Human Wellbeing

4 Prof. Mamdouh Nasr, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt and Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung (ZEF) Center for Development

Research

5 ibid

6 IPCC, 2007

7 J. Lelieveld et Al., Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, 2012

8 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution

of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P.

Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (Eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

16 | P a g e

9 Climate Change: Middle East Faces Looming Challenge, Quarterly Publication - The World Bank Middle East Department – Lebanon

FIRST/SECOND QUARTER 2010

10 Ibid.

11 Dasgupta, S., B. Laplante, C. Meisner, and J. Yan (2007). The impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Study.

World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4136, February 2007.

12 AFED, Loc. Cit.

13 Op. cit. AFED, 2009

14The center for climate and security, http://climateandsecurity.org accessed on January 15, 2015

15 ibid.

16 ibid.

17UNFCCC Website. http://www.unfccc.int accessed on 26 November 2014

18 ibid.

19 Ibid.

20 RICCAR escwa.un.org accessed on 26 November 2014

21 ibid.

22 UNDP Regional Bureau of Arab States (UNDP-RBAS) www.arabclimateinitiative.org accessed on 26 November 2014

23 Ibrahim Abdel Gelil, United Nations Development Programme Regional Bureau for Arab States, Arab Climate Resilience Initiative

Climate Change: Economic challenges and Opportunities in the Arab Regions (undated)

24 2014 GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY www.gfdrr.org accessed on 26 November 2014

25 ibid.

26 The World Bank’s GEF Program in The Middle East and North Africa Region: Global Environmental Benefits Contributing to National

Development Goals, Undated

27ibid

28 ibid

29 ibid