climate change in southern africa – selected impacts, responses and the road to copenhagen
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Climate Change in Southern Africa – selected impacts, responses and the road to Copenhagen. Dr Emma Archer ( www.csir.co.za/nre ) & Dr Mark Tadross ( www.csag.uct.ac.za ). Introduction. Comments - climate change explained and observed Then look at the projections for Southern Africa; - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change in Southern Africa – selected impacts, responses and the road to
Copenhagen
Dr Emma Archer (www.csir.co.za/nre) & Dr Mark Tadross (www.csag.uct.ac.za)
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Introduction• Comments - climate change explained and observed
• Then look at the projections for Southern Africa;
• Thinking around adaptation and response
• The road to Copenhagen, and strategies in South Africa and SADC; Nairobi Declaration (May-June 2009)
• Chris: climate change implications for the water sector (example of vulnerable sector; others include health, human settlements, disaster management, biodiversity &
ecosystem services, agriculture, marine and coastal)
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The greenhouse effect
• Greenhouse gases ~ act like panes of glass in a greenhouse– Allow short wave energy to pass through them
– Trap longer-wave heat radiation that is radiated back to the atmosphere from the earth’s surface (changes to atmosphere – radiative forcing)
Source: Adapted in part from IPCC. 1990. Climate change: The IPCC scientific assessment.
Houghton, Jenkins, and Ephraums, eds. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. xiv.
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So far – collective picture of a warming world
• Global average surface temperature has increased over 20th century by about 0.6 C
• Climate change already occurring – e.g. temp raises in parts of SADC
• What of the future?
IPCC AR4 WG1
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Southern Africa predictions - temperature
• ‘All of Africa is likely to warm during this century’ (IPCC WG1, 2007, Ch 11, pg 866)
– Warming likely > global annual mean warming throughout the continent and in all seasons
– Drier subtropical regions warming more than moister tropics
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Significant hydrological changes
June-July-August December-January-February
Based on regional studies assessed in IPCC Chapter 11
Precip increase in > 90% of simulations
Precip increase in > 66% simulations
Precip decrease in > 66% of simulations
Precip decrease in > 90% of simulations
Precip decrease likely
Precip increase likely
Sectors vulnerable to climate risk
IPCC AR4 WG1, Christensen et al
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Priorities in impacts & adaptation • The flaws of a sectoral approach … multi-sector strategies (e.g. intra-
departmental coordination on water-health-livelihoods link in both causation and adaptation strategies)
• Acknowledging the challenge of complex emergencies/multiple stressors (e.g. cholera outbreak – summer 2008/9)
• Win-win strategies (e.g. corridor and landscape planning as an adaptation strategy)– Link to overall thinking on policy on climate change and environment in Africa –
multiple synergies and the MEAs (more shortly)
• Understanding thresholds and progressive exceedances (households, institutions, management systems, ecosystems)
• Root adaptation in what is currently done to cope with climate variability (from the communal farmer to the mining house)
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How South Africa & SADC are tackling climate change
• Beyond communication & dissemination of climate risk science to real sectoral & multi-sectoral impact
– Second National Communication on Climate Change (led by SANBI – www.sanbi.ac.za)
– Global Change Grand Challenge; including Global Change Bureau, ACCESS, COE on Sustainability and Global Change, SAEON, Risk & Vulnerability Atlas
– Adaptation and other climate change units at Dept Water & Environment
– Units at Dept Water & Environment – key focus on concrete strategies across departments, including water, health, disaster management, agriculture (planning commission in Office of the Presidency)
Work in SADC – coupling climate change capacity building to existing SADC early warning and disaster management processes
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Towards Copenhagen & COP15• Hopes in international climate
negotiation that a new, international climate change agreement for the post-2012 period will be agreed in Copenhagen in 2009.
• Again, we are already committed to a certain amount of change, even with great progress in Copenhagen
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Nairobi Declaration on African Process for Combating Climate Change (May-June 2009)
Common African negotiating position on a comprehensive international Climate Change regime beyond 2012;
ensure that African common position – basis for negotiations by African group during negotiations for post2012 regime + takes into account Africa priorities (SD,poverty reduction and MDGs attainment)
Develop a comprehensive framework of African Climate Change Programmes (coordination & coherence in implem and review of climate change initiatives & SD plans in Africa @ all levels; + common approach to engaging international community);
Support Africa to increase economic competitiveness - low carbon development;
Urge dev countries to set ambitious emissions reductions targets (2020 - @ least 40% below 1990 levels; 2050 – 80 – 95% below 1990 levels)
Common approach to engaging with the international community in developing solutions to tackle the challenges posed by climate change;
Agreement on the modalities for submitting the outcomes of the Special Session to the African Union at its summit to be held in July 2009
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Africa priorities for increased support under future climate regime
• Adaptation• Capacity building• Research• Financing (improved geographical distribution of CDM projects;
expansion of eligible categories to benefit from carbon credits & other post-2012 incentives to incl sustainable land use– possible fund establishment to reduce emissions through sustainable land-management practices; incl forest conservation, sustainable forest management, avoidance of deforestation, afforestation and sustainable agriculture)
• Technology devt & transfer (just mentioned)
• Incl support for South-South transfer of knowledge• Including indigenous knowledge systems
Annex IV – Conceptual framework for African climate change programmes – UNEP/AMCEN/12/9
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Sobering realities on the way forward to conclude
• Joanne Yawitch (Water & Environment DDG) – comment on UNFCCC negotations in Bonn
– ‘confident will come out of Copenhagen with an architecture of what the Climate Change regime will look like’ (although picture post G8 not encouraging)
– ‘…very confident that one will get a second Kyoto commitment period, with new numbers’
– ‘less optimistic’ that the financial framework for developing-country support would be finalized
Christy van der Merwe, Engineering News, June 11th 2009