climate change in ireland - what's likely to happen ... · millennium ecosystem assessment...
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UCD Earth Sciences Institute
with TCD TrinityHausIn conjunction with the TCD‐UCD Innovation Alliance Public Lecture Series
Transforming Ireland Mobilising Innovation and Enterprise to Become a Prosperous Low Carbon Society
Climate Change in Ireland - what's likely to happen?23rd April 2010
Implications for Invasive SpeciesDr Jane Stout, TCD
• “By the end of the 21st century, climate change and its impacts may be the dominant direct driver of biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem services globally” www.millenniumassessment.org
Images from Wikimedia commons
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Invasive species
Images from Wikimedia Commons
www.environet-uk.co.uk
Climate change : implications for invasive species
1. Which species will be invasive?
2. What will impacts be on ecological goods and services?
www.ireland-salmon-fishing.net
Image from Wikimedia Commons
1. Which species will be invasive?
1. Arrival of new species
2. Establishment of populations in wild
3. Invasion
Images from Wikimedia Commons
New arrivals…
invasives.biodiversityireland.ie www.invasivespeciesireland.com
2010: Asian Clam 2007: Harlequin ladybird
Images from Wikimedia Commons
Spread of existing introduced species
• Pacific Oyster
Judith Kochmann & Tas Crowe, UCD
Predicting invasions I
• Risk assessment eg Invasive species Ireland• 385 established species and 171 potential invaders
www.invasivespeciesireland.com
Predicting invasions II
Images from Wikimedia Commons
www.biochange.ie/alienplants
www.biochange.ie/alienplants
Factors correlated with invasion
• Invasion history– Long time since first recorded in wild– Introduced as an ornamental– Invasive elsewhere in world
• Native distribution– Small native range
• Species traits– Hermaphrodite flowers– Not self-pollinated, not animal pollinated– Started flowering later in year– Preference for wetter habitats
Milbau and Stout (2008) Conservation Biology, 22: 308–317
Predicting future invasions
Species %chance
Hypericum calycinum 99
Crassula helmsii 96.9
Vinca major 95.6
Myriophyllum aquaticum 94
Azolla filiculoides 90
100.0080.0060.0040.0020.000.00
Probability of invasion (%)
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Probability of invasion (%)0 20 40 60 80 100
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Climate change : implications for invasive species
1. Which species will become invasive?
2. What will impacts be on ecological goods and services?
www.ireland-salmon-fishing.net
Image from Wikimedia Commons
Impacts on ecological goods and services: eg pollination
Gallai et al 2009Bullock et al 2008
Pollination interactions are complex
From Stanley and Stout, in prep
Bumblebee visiting Oilseed Rape flower
Insect species
Plant species
How can invasive species affect pollination services?
Adapted from Stout & Morales (2009) Apidologie 40: 388–409
Invasive plants
Generalist pollinators
Specialist pollinators
Native plants
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Case study: Rhododendron ponticum
Stout et al. (2006) Biodiversity and ConservationStout (2007) Apidologie 38 198-206Dietzsch and Stout , in preparation
Vision for 2020?
• Invaders create novel communities
• Impact on ecological interactions
• Ecological specialists particularly at risk
• Impact on provision of ecological goods and services
What should be done?
Monitor and plan for species range change
Limit human-driven introductions of new species
– Biosecurity
Target conservation for delivery of goods and services
UCD Earth Sciences Institute with TCD TrinityHausTransforming Ireland Seminar Series
In conjunction with the TCD‐UCD Innovation Alliance Public Lecture Series
With the support of Business in the Community Ireland and in collaboration with
Comhar Sustainable Development Council, Environmental Protection Agency, Geological
Survey of Ireland, Sustainable Energy Authority Ireland, Dublin City Council,
Met Éireann, Enterprise Ireland, Marine Institute and Teagasc
For Further details on the seminar series is available contact [email protected]
A podcast of this seminar will be available on the ESI website soon, please join the online ESI mailing list for such notifications