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ClimateChangeImpactsonCoastalTransportationInfrastructureintheCaribbean

Casestudies:KeyFindingsandApproaches

Synopsis

1. Introduction1.1SIDSvulnerabilitytoCV&C1.2CV&Cimpactsontransport/tourism

2. AssessmentofCV&Cimpactsontransport:Methodology

3 Applicationofthemethodology(Jamaica&SaintLucia)3.1 Criticalassets3.2 Directimpacts/Futuredisruptions3.3 Indirectimpacts(consideredonlyforSaintLucia)

4. Conclusions

Introduction:SIDSvulnerabilitytoCV&C

ü SIDSfacesignificantchallengesfromCV&C,prompting theAllianceofSmallIslandStates(AOSIS) tostronglyadvocateforacapof1.5°Conglobalwarmingabovepre-industrial levels(2015ParisAgreement)

ü SIDSareparticularvulnerableduetotheirlimitedphysicalsize,smalleconomies, thehighconcentrationofpopulations, infrastructure,andservicesatthecoast

ü Ithasbeensuggested thattheCaribbeanStatescouldfaceclimate-relatedlossesinexcessof$22billion annuallyby2050(IDB2014)

Introduction:CV&Cimpactsontransport/tourism

Therefore,seaportsandairports inSIDS—andtheirintermodalconnections—arevital

lifelinesformovementofgoodsandtourism;anydamagetotheseinfrastructurescan

disrupt transportservicesandaffectsignificantly smallislandeconomies

ü SIDSaresea-lockedsotheydependoninternational transportationforaccessibilityandconnectivityandinteractionswiththeglobalcommunity andmarkets

ü Transportfacilitiesandinfrastructureenabletourismakeycomponent ofSIDSeconomies andthelargestemployerandearnerofforeignexchangeformostCaribbeanSIDS,withtourismaccountingforbetween11and79%oftheirGDP.

Therefore,seaportsandairports inSIDS—andtheirintermodalconnections—arevital

lifelinesformovementofgoodsandtourism;anydamagetotheseinfrastructurescan

disrupt transportservicesandaffectsignificantly smallislandeconomies


Transportinfrastructureandoperations thataresituatedatthecoastarelikelytobeseriouslyaffected:

ü Marineflooding of thelow-lyingcoastalairports.High temperaturescanaffectrunways(heatbuckling)andaircraftlift, resulting inpayloadrestrictionsanddisruptions; runwaylength extensions willberequired(whichmaynotalwaysbeeasy)

ü SeaportswillbeincrementallyaffectedbyMSLRandstormevents;theirquays,jettiesandbreakwaterswill be less efficient, requiring redesigning and/or strengthening

ü Heavyprecipitationcanaffectservicesandinduceflashfloods andlandslides thatcanhaveanimpactoncoastaltransportationassetsandtheirconnecting roadnetwork

Impactsontransportinfrastructure


Thetourist industry intheCaribbeanisbasedonthe“3S”model (Sea,SandandSun).Amostcriticalcomponentof3Stourism istheavailabilityofbeachesthatareenvironmentallyandaestheticallysoundandretainadequatecarryingcapacity

Carryingcapacityisdefinedasthe“maximumnumberofpeople thatmayvisitatourismdestinationatthesametime,withoutcausingdestructionofthephysical,economicandsocio-culturalenvironmentandanunacceptabledecreaseinthequalityofthevisitor’satisfaction”

Beacherosionduetoe.g.sealevelrisemight reducesignificantly thecarryingcapacityandthequalityofthebeachesasenvironmentsofleisureandconsequently theattractivenessofthecountryfortourismandtravel,resulting inpotentiallysignificant internationaltravelexpenditure loss.

Impactsontouristicbeaches

AssessmentofCV&Cimpactsontransport- Methodology

Future impacts/disruptions

DirectImpacts(Infrastructure,operation)

IndirectImpacts(services,e.g.tourism)

(consideredonlyforStLucia)

Operationalthresholdsmethod

Coastalinundation

model(JRC-EC)

impactsontheprimary“3S”tourismnatural

resources(beaches)

Connectivitywithtouristresorts

Identificationofcriticalassets

Historicalimpacts/disruptions

AssessmentofCV&Cimpactsontransport- Methodology

Collectclimatedata(historicalandfuture

projections)

Identifyoperationalthresholds

Assesscurrentexposure(historicalandpresent

disruptions)

Assessfutureexposure(Futuredisruptions)

Determineexposuretotemperature,precipitation,andotherclimatehazards

Theoperationalthresholdsmethod

Applicationofthemethodology(Jamaica&SaintLucia)

Jamaica§ landareaof10,990km2,population 2.7million

§ GDP~14.75billionUSD§ Direct contributions fromtourism9%.

SaintLucia§ area616km2,population185,000

§ GDPof1.43billionUSD§ Tourismsectorcontributesupto41%


Criticalassets- JamaicaAIRPORTS Runway

length(m)Runwaywidth(m)

Elevation(m)

Passengers(2016)

Cargohandled(tonnes,2016)

SangsterInternationalAirport(SIA) 2,662.4 46 1.18-1.37 3,952,273 6,497(2015)

NormanManleyInternationalAirport(NMIA) 2,716 46 1.95-2.5 1,594,096 12,528

SEAPORTS Berthlength(m) Depth(m) Elevation

(m) Passengers Cargo

HistoricFalmouthCruisePort(HFCP) 675 11.3 2.9 752,205 -

KingstonFreeportTerminal(KCT) 2310 13 4 N/A

Domestic:1,051,633Transshipment:7279722(2015)


Criticalassets– SaintLucia

AIRPORTS Runwaylength(m)

Runwaywidth(m)

Elevation(m)

Passengers(2016)

Cargohandled(tonnes,2016)

HewanorraInternationalAirport(HIA)

2,743.2 45.72 3.3 644,837 2,138

GeorgeCharlesInternationalAirport(GCIA)

1,889.76 45.72 6.1 195,859 1,079

SEAPORTS Berthlength(m) Depth(m) Elevation

(m) Passengers Cargo

PortCastries(CSP)

940.6(cargo+cruise)

5.5-10 1.5 677,394 480,770tonnes(2016)

VieuxFortSeaport(VFSP) 373 11 1.5-2.5 N/A ~46,000TEUper

year


ü Impactsunder theAOSISadvocated1.5°Ctemperaturecapwerealsoassessed;the1.5°Ctemperatureincreasecapwasalsotranslatedintoadateyear.

ü Thedateyearthatthetemperaturewillincreaseby1.5°Cabovepre-industrial levelshasbeenprojectedusingthecompleteensembleofCMIP5GeneralCirculationModels (Tayloretal.2012)andfollowing anapproachsimilartoAlfierietal.(2017).

ü Theanalysisprojected thatthe1.5°Ctemperatureincreasecapwouldbereachedby2033under theIPCCRCP4.5andby2028under theRCP8.5scenario.

ü Therefore,theresultsforthe1.5°Ctemperatureincreasecaparebasedonclimaticfactorprojections for2030.

Futuredisruptions- Directimpacts


Identifying theoperationalthresholdsi. Employeeabilitytoworksafelyoutdoorsandheatindex(afunction of

temperatureandrelativehumidity)ii. Takeofflength requirementofaircraftsandtemperatureiii. Energycostandtemperatureiv. Craneoperationandprecipitation

CollectionofClimatedatai. Rawdailyclimatemodeldatafromthedatabaseof theCaribbeanCommunity

ClimateChangeCentre(CCCCC)

EstimationofdaysofdisruptionTrough thecomparisonoftheoperationalthresholds withtheclimatedata,thedays

thatthesethresholdswouldbeexceededwereestimated

Futuredisruptions- Directimpacts

Operationalthresholdsmethod


Daysofdisruptions forairportsandseaportsinJamaica

ClimateStressor Sensitivity Threshold

Disruptions (averagedays/year)1986-2005

2006-2030

20302031-2055

2056-2080

2081-2100

ExtremeHeat Employeeabilitytoworksafelyoutdoors inairportsandseaports

HeatIndex(NOAA)over39.4°C (103°F),resultingfrom30.6 °C(87.1°F)and80%relativehumiditypresents‘high’risk

4.40 5.76 5.00 13.45 22.21 29.67

HeatIndex(NOAA)over46°C (115°F)resultingfrom32.5 °C(90.5°F)and80%relativehumiditypresents‘veryhighrisk’

0.05 0.12 1.00 1.95 4.88 10.89

Aircrafttake-offlengthrequirements

Boeing737-800aircraftwouldnotbeabletotakeofffromSIAifthetemperatureexceeds33.2°C

23.70 44.92 65.00 84.91 138.75 183.78

Boeing737-800aircraftwouldnotbeabletotakeofffromNMIAifthetemperatureexceeds34.1°C

5.35 14.64 24.00 44.41 99.25 146.00

Energycostsinseaports 0.8°Cwarming=4%increaseiftemperatureexceeds30.3°C(1986-2005average:29.5°C)

145.20 177.36 214.00 216.73 271.46 303.44

1.3°Cwarming=6.5%increaseiftemperatureexceeds30.8°C

121.50 153.44 182.00 196.41 248.50 286.61

3°Cwarming=15%increaseiftemperatureexceeds32.5°C

47.25 74.92 97.00 117.95 168.96 214.83

Precipitation Inhibitscraneoperationinseaports

Intenserainfall(e.g.>20mm/day) 3.70 3.60 0.00 4.59 4.00 3.11Veryheavy rainfall(e.g.>50mm/day) 0.90 0.64 0.00 1.45 0.92 0.89


Daysofdisruptions forairportsandseaportsinSaintLucia

ClimateStressor Sensitivity Threshold

Disruptions (averagedays/year)1986-2005

2006-2030

20302031-2055

2056-2080

2081-2100

ExtremeHeat

Employeeabilitytoworksafelyoutdoors inairportsandseaports

HeatIndex(NOAA)over39.4°C (103°F),resultingfrom30.6 °C(87.1°F)and80%relativehumiditypresents‘high’risk

1.25 1.96 2.00 11.86 29.13 55.33

HeatIndex(NOAA)over46°C (115°F)resultingfrom32.5 °C(90.5°F)and80%relativehumiditypresents‘veryhighrisk’

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.59 2.42 9.06

Aircrafttake-offlengthrequirements

Boeing737-500aircraftwouldnotbeabletotakeofffromHIAifthetemperatureexceeds31.2°C

0.55 0.96 0.00 10.64 31.38 69.72

Energycostsinseaports 0.8°C=4%increaseiftemperatureexceeds27.6°C (1986-2005average:26.8°C)

80.55 114.32 168.00 225.50 322.13 355.72

1.3°Cwarming=6.5%increaseiftemperatureexceeds28.1°C

49.05 71.76 113.00 161.59 279.58 343.61

3°Cwarming=15%increaseiftemperatureexceeds29.8°C

5.90 9.72 18.00 40.32 98.54 182.78

Precipitation Inhibitscraneoperationinseaports

Intenserainfall(e.g.,>20mm/day) 48.20 44.60 51.00 45.55 46.88 48.00Veryheavy rainfall(e.g.>50mm/day) 0.45 0.72 1.00 1.05 0.54 0.83


Estimationoffutureexposuretocoastalflooding/inundation

ü Estimationofextremesealevels(ESLs).ESLsaredrivenbythecombinedeffectofMSL,

tidesandwaterlevelfluctuationsduetowavesandstormsurges.Cycloneeffectshave

beenincluded.

ü Flood/inundation assessmenthasbeencarriedout,usingdynamicsimulationsusing the

open-accessmodelLISFLOOD-ACC

Futuredisruptions– Directimpacts

Coastalinundationmodel(JRC-EC)


ExtremeSeaLevelprojections

Futuredisruptions- DirectimpactsCoastalinundationmodel(JRC-EC)

TimeevolutionofESLsandtheirbaseline(1995)returnperiods:(a,c)Jamaica;(b,d)SaintLucia.Theredstippledlinerepresentstheprojecteddateyearofthe1.5°Ctemperatureincreasesincethepre-industrialperiod


Futuredisruptions– DirectimpactsCoastalflooding- Jamaica

InundationofSIA(a,b,c)andNMIA(d,e,f)


Futuredisruptions– DirectimpactsCoastalflooding- Jamaica

InundationofKCT(a,b,c)andHFCP(d,e,f)



Coastalflooding– SaintLucia

InundationofGCIAandCSP



Coastalflooding– SaintLucia

InundationofHIAandVFSP

Applicationofthemethodology(SaintLucia)

Impactsontheprimary“3S”tourismnaturalresource(beaches)

Indirectimpacts


Indirectimpacts

Impactsontheprimary“3S”tourismnaturalresource(beaches)

Max. width reduction (expressed in percentage of their initial max. width) according (a) and (b) minimumand maximum beach retreat under an ESL of 1.2 m (for the year 2040) and (c) minimum beach retreatunder an ESL of 1.8 m (for the year 2100).


Anestimationofconnectivityimpactsonthebasisofthenumberofpotentiallandslideshasbeencarriedalongtheconnecting roadnetworkbetweenthe2internationalairportsofSaintLuciaand30touristresortsidentified alongtheislandcoastlinethrough

(i) digitizationofthemajorroadnetworkusing theGoogleEarthApplicationand

(ii)thelandslidedensityperkilometer recordedduring theHurricaneTomas

Indirectimpacts

Connectivitywithtouristresorts


Indirectimpacts

Connectivityissues:airportswithtouristresortsLandslidesalongtheroadnetwork

Majortouristicdestinations FromHIA FromGCIACas enBas 45.9 2.8

Anse Petience 9.5 33.5CoconutBay 0.4 42.6

Anse deSable_1 0.4 43.0Anse deSable_2 0.9 44.3SugarBeach 46.6 83.9Malgretoute 53.2 77.4Soufriere 60.2 70.4

AnseChastanet 65.9 64.7Canaries 98.0 38.3

Anse Cochon 111.3 25.0AnseGalet 114.6 21.6Anse LaRaye 116.7 19.6

Roseau 124.4 11.9Marigot 126.5 9.8

GrandeCul DeSac 40.6 3.3LaToc 42.2 1.4Vigie 43.0 0.0Choc 43.5 0.5

AlmondMorgan 43.8 0.8St.James 43.9 0.8

Labrelotte_1 44.2 1.1Labrelotte_2 44.2 1.2

Trouya 44.3 1.3Reduit 44.9 1.8

Rodney_1 45.4 2.4Rodney_2 45.6 2.5

PigeonIsland 45.7 2.6SmugglersCove 45.9 2.8

LeSport 46.2 3.1

Conclusions

ü Thereissignificantandincreasingmarineinundation risktocriticalassets,withtheSIAinJamaicaandtheSaintLucianairportsandseaportsbeing themostvulnerable

ü Severeimpactsareprojectedevenunder theAOSISadvocatedtemperatureincreasecapof1.5oC.

ü Underincreasingbeacherosionandflooding, thelong-termrecreationalvalueoftheSaintLuciabeachesmayfallconsiderably

ü InSaintLuciatheconnectivityofthemajortransportationassetstothemajor touristdestinationsoftheislandisunder increasedriskbythelargedensityoflandslides

ü TheprojectedCV&Cimpactsoncriticaltransportinfrastructure, ifnotaddressedbyappropriateadaptationoptionsmayhaveveryseriousimplications fortheconnectivityofSIDStotheinternational communityandmarkets,aswellaseconomicandtrade-relatedrepercussions.

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