climate change, hydrology, and landscapes of america’s ... · 1) landscapes that yield high or...
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Climate Change, Hydrology, and Landscapes of America’s Heartland
NSF Coupled Natural
and Human SystemsPI- Lant
co-PI Schoof,Secchi
Misgna,Nicklow
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Virtual Watershed: NSF Biocomplexity in the Environment Program 2004-2008
Key researchers:Christopher Lant (Geography) PISteven Kraft, (Agr. Economics)John Nicklow (Civil Engineering)Girmay Misgna (GIS Lab)George Malanson (Geography) IowaDissertations by: Elias Bekele, Seth Soman, Vineet Yadev
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The Modeling Approach
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Corn
Other crops
Pasture
Wheat
Soybean
Forest
Urban
Water
Land Use is the Lynchpin Between Social Factors and Environmental Results
Corn
Pasture
SoybeansForest
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1999 Landuse Polygon Classification
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2000 Landuse Polygon Classification
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2001 Landuse Polygon Classification
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2002 Landuse Polygon Classification
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2003 Landuse Polygon Classification
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2004 Landuse Polygon Classification
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(1) The use chosen for a field is influenced by the physical geographic characteristics of the field such as soil type and slope. (Yes)
(2) The use chosen for a field is influenced by economic costs and opportunities for various uses. (Yes)
(3) The use chosen for a field is influenced by the use of neighboring fields. (No)
(4) The use chosen for a field is influenced by the historical use of that field. (Yes)
Land Use Change Hypotheses
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Probability that a hectare will containUse last Year Corn Soy Double Grass Forest TotalAll Corn .07 .81 .01 .11 .00 1.00
All Soybeans .48 .34 .01 .17 .00 1.00
Double Crop .03 .24 .02 .72 .00 1.00
Pasture/Hay .02 .07 .01 .89 .00 1.00
Forest .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00 1.00
Contingent probabilities of land use in a field given land uses in the previous year
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Agent-BasedModeling
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Multiple Agents Predict Land Use Decisions Well
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Modeling using SWAT
also provides spatial
information on
profitability, soil loss, and
carbon
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Ecological-EconomicProduction PossibilityFrontiers and their Evolution
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Corn vs. Soybeans: A Classic Trade-off
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Corn and Water Quality: A Trade-Off
R = -0.83
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Carbon and Corn: A Trade-Off
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Hay and Water Quality: Complementary
R = 0.90
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Carbon and Hay: Complementary
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Carbon and Water Quality: Complementary
R = 0.83
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The Overall Ecological-Economic Production Possibilities Frontier
R = -0.83
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What We’ve Learned About the PPF1) Landscapes that yield high or low sediment yields also yield
corresponding N and P yields with correlations of 0.93 - 0.98.
2) Competition among crops for land produces as classic PPF
3) Soybeans, and especially corn, is a trade-off with all ecosystem services, but hay is complementary.
4) Carbon correlates positively with water quality at 0.83.
5) The current land use pattern is very sub-optimal, more so with respect to ecosystem services than gross margin. See Tragedy of Ecosystem Services paper and Law and Policy of Ecosystem Services book with Ruhl and Kraft
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http:/vws.erp.siu.edu:90/vws/
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What about climate change?
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Local climates can be downscaled statistically from OAGCMs
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Climate Change, Hydrology, and Landscapes of
America’s Heartland
NSF Coupled Natural and
Human SystemsPI- Lant
co-PI Schoof,Secchi
Misgna,Nicklow
And what about multiple watersheds?
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Modeling Framework
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Agent-Based Modeling
•Profit maximization•Risk aversion•Forward or backward-looking•Labor minimization•Conservation•Distribution
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Research Questions and Hypotheses
Research Question 1How are rural land use patterns in the American Heartland study area determined by physical factors such as climate, soil fertility, and slope, socioeconomic factors such as policies and agricultural prices, and geographic factors such as prior and neighboring land uses? How will 21st Century climate change affect these land use patterns at various scales, from macroscale USDA Farm Resource and Land Resource Regions to mesoscale watersheds, to individual farms and fields? How will this change the geography of agricultural production?
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What do we expect to
find?
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Research Question 2How will (a) agricultural prices, (b) available crops and management techniques, (c) agricultural policies, and (d) policies designed to ameliorate climate change, affect these same 21st Century land use patterns?
Hypothesis 2As agricultural prices rise in response to supply-demand relationships, crop production expands at the margin onto steeper, less fertile, and less humid lands at the expense of pasture and rangeland, which in turn expand along the forest margin. Biofuel production and energy crops such as switch grass accelerate this process. However, falling agricultural prices or policies that reward ecosystem service provision (e.g., carbon storage) have the reverse effect on landscapes, expanding forests (where moisture is sufficient) onto pastures and pastures onto marginal croplands.
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Research Question 3As geographically-defined units of natural capital, watersheds are capable of generating sets of both provisioning services (food, fiber, and fuel production) and less often marketed cultural (e.g., aesthetics, recreation) and regulatory (e.g., climate and hydrologic regulation,
water quality) ecosystem services. Will climate change expand or diminish the agricultural production and ecosystem service generation capacities of mesoscale watersheds representative of Farm Resource Regions?
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Questions? Comments?