Climate change, hydro-conflicts, and human security (CLICO)

Itay FischhendlerHebrew University

EU Israel Climate Change Workshop

University of Haifa

Introduction: CLICO

• Collaborative 3-year research project

• Funded: EC FP7 Co-operation Work Programme: SSH (2009)

• Led by ICTA, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (Spain)

• 14 partners in Europe (EU +non-EU), Middle East, and Sahel

• Area of study: med-Eur, Maghreb, Middle East, and Sahel

2

Focus

• Explore social dimensions of climate change: conditions under which hydro-climatic hazards infringe upon security of human populations

• focus on water-related events (droughts, floods and sea level rise) that are expected to intensify

3

The causality between environment and security

environment securityconflictsscarcity

supply demand

abundance

weak society legitimacy

security securityconflictsenvironmentalscarcity

Environmentalthreat

collective action and

trust

securitypeace buildin

g

Securitizing the environment

“We have to prevent further environmental degradation. If we fail these problems will cause terrorism, tension and war” (Clinton, 1994)

“The next war in the Middle East will be fought over water, not politics” (Egyptian Foreign Minister, and later UN Secretary General, Boutrous Ghali)

“The Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis, arising at least in part from climate change.” (UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon, 2007)

“climate change " would challenge US national security in ways that be considered immediately" (Schwartz and Randall, 2003)

What are we securitizing:Reliable supply

Energy security is “reliable and adequate supply at a reasonable price" (Bielecki, 2002)

Energy s

ecurity

What are we securitizing:our existence

Ecologica

l secu

rity

Climate se

curity

Climate security is "stable climate or maintaining a rate of change below the dangerous levels for human and ecological systems" (Stripple 2002)

What are we securitizing:our values

Water

and food se

curity

Food security is access by all people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life (World Bank, 1986)

• climate change –> social impacts –> security issue

• The chain has rarely been substantiated with reliable evidence

10

Motivation

Aim & objectives

– Why some countries and communities are more vulnerable to natural hazards

– Under what conditions vulnerability becomes a security matter?

– What policies and institutions are necessary to ensure adaptation, security and peace in the face of climatic change?

11

RESEARCH BLOCK 4: the affect of uncertainty on the climate/security nexus

12

adaptive capacity

mechanisms

Conflict Conflict ResolutionResolution

MechanismsMechanisms

How uncertainty is embedded

Into agreements

mechanisms embedded into

the agreements

What affectWhat affect their choicetheir choice

What affectWhat affect their performancetheir performance

type of type of uncertaintiesuncertainties

their their commonalitycommonality

in agreementsin agreements

The affect ofUncertainty

Methodology

A content analysis of all available agreements signed since 1980 was undertaken Only treaties concerning water as a scarce or consumable resource, or an ecosystem to be improved, are included in the analysis

The Trans-boundary Freshwater Dispute Database was used as the database

A total of 289 basin specific agreements signed after 1900 were left for analysis In each agreement we identified the uncertain language, mechanisms employed to deal with uncertainties and classified them according to the uncertainty management strategies

treatydesign

resource degradation

scarcity inequitable distribution

Risk of uncertainty

reducing uncertainty

open-end approach

complete contracts

ignoring uncertainty

treaty effectiveness

+ ratification

internal politics

global economy

Exogenous background uncertainties

high politics

resource variability and quality

resource vulnerability

Exogenous resource uncertainties

induced endogenous uncertainties

Uncertainty Language in Transboundary Water agreements, 1857-1999

Nature of Uncertainty %of sample in which

mentioned

Exogenous Resource Uncertainties Flow variability 49%

General environmental uncertainty 13% Scientific uncertainty 4%

Exogenous background uncertainties Political uncertainty 8%

Endogenous uncertainties Uncertainty about treaty implementation 7%

Uncertainty about data 1% Uncertainty about treaty finance 6%

Uncertainty about treaty effectiveness 4% Uncertainty about treaty created infrastructure 18%

Frequency of Uncertainty Language

40%

36%

11%

13%

not mention uncertainties

mention 1 form of uncert.

mention 2 forms of uncert.

mention 3 or more formsof uncert.

Exogenous Background Uncertainty

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

Sh

are

Political Uncertainty

Exogenous Resource Uncertainty

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

Sh

are

Flow variability

Generalenvironmentaluncertainty

Scientific uncertainty

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1900-1929

1930-1949

1950-1969

1970-1989

1990-2007

Ave

rag

e n

um

ber

of

mec

han

ism

s

Complete contracts

Reducing uncertainty

Open ended

Change in the composition of uncertainty strategies over time

Conflict Resolution MechanismsConflict Resolution Mechanisms

RESEARCHRESEARCH QUESTIONQUESTION

Research question: Research question: 1.1. What mechanisms available?What mechanisms available?2.2. What mechanisms adopted in real life?What mechanisms adopted in real life?3.3. What affects their choice? What affects their choice? 4.4. What constitutes barriers to its adoption?What constitutes barriers to its adoption?

Conceptual Model: a TC approach to Conceptual Model: a TC approach to CRM adoptuoonCRM adoptuoon

box - dependent variableelipse - independent variablebold line - highly significant positive correlationthin line - significant positive correlationdotted line - significant negative correlationdashed line - highly significant negative correlation

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