climate change hlhp bl &h lhslihealth problems & healthy...
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Climate ChangeClimate ChangeH l h P bl & H l h S l iH l h P bl & H l h S l iHealth Problems & Healthy SolutionsHealth Problems & Healthy Solutions
26 May 200926 May 2009
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
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Why is Climate Changing Faster than Models Project?Why is Climate Changing Faster than Models Project?
387 ppm387 ppm ?Small Caps11
Stable statesStable states
280 ppm Medium Polar Caps
or cold reversal
COCO22
180 ppm Large Polar Caps
22
COCO2 2 + NO+ NOxxs + CFCs + methane +Hs + CFCs + methane +H22OO
22
–– SOSOxxs + black soot = s + black soot = 22
? ppm CO? ppm CO22--equivalent or GWPequivalent or GWP
460 ppm CO2e
(1.66 W/m(1.66 W/m22))
33
(0.9 W/m(0.9 W/m22))
AlbedoAlbedoTundraTundra
Ice melt is accelerating
Sea level rise Arctic sea ice
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HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL HH22O vaporO vapor
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Deep Ocean WarmingDeep Ocean Warmingp gp g
14
16Precipitation over the Continental U.S since 1970Precipitation over the Continental U.S since 1970
12
14Rain 7%
Mumbai 37.1” Mumbai 37.1” PP
8
1022 timesHeat content in exajoulesHeat content in exajoules>2”/d 14%
26 July 2005 26 July 2005
1, 000 deaths1, 000 deaths>6”/d 27%TT
PP
6
8
>4”/d 20%
,,
2
4>4 /d 20%
0A SI MG An Atm CG C WOArctic Sea ice Mt glac Antarctic Atm Cont glac Cont OceanGlobal Hydrological Cycle
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y g y
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HEATWAVESMay/June 2003
Andhra Pradesh
T 122oF
>1400 deaths
HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES & TMINSHUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES & TMINS
E 2003Europe 2003
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July Floods - Japanese B encephalitis
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Mozambique Floods Mozambique Floods 20002000
Figure 1: Malaria Cases and Maputo Precipitation, 1999-2001
1000 3 5
200 400 600 800
1000
mal
aria
cas
es
0.511.522.533.5
prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
malaria casesmaputo precip
0 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 103 109 115 121 127 133 139 145 151
weeks (Jan99-Dec01)
0
FiveFive--fold spike in malaria incidencefold spike in malaria incidenceCENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
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FiveFive--fold spike in malaria incidencefold spike in malaria incidence
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Meningitis beltBurkina Faso, DRC, Sudan and UgandaBurkina Faso, DRC, Sudan and Uganda
>15, 000 cases >1600 deaths >15, 000 cases >1600 deaths Mar 2007Mar 2007
Niger > 8000 cases, 800 deaths Niger > 8000 cases, 800 deaths M 2009M 2009 RVFRVF
20042004--20062006
May 2009May 2009 RVFRVF
malariamalaria
h lh l
FloodsFloods
20062006choleracholera
20072007DROUGHT
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Chikungunya Chikungunya feverfever
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Bark Beetles and Forest FiresBark Beetles and Forest Fires
Injury, Respiratory Disease, Water,
Wildlife PropertyWildlife, Property, Carbon Pulse
Timber industryCENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
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AGRICULTUREAGRICULTURESTORMS
2005
HURRICANE IVAN 2004
RANGE CHANGE: SOYBEAN SUDDENRANGE CHANGE: SUDDEN DEATH
SYNDROME
FLOODS: Fungi and Nematodes
DROUGHTS: Aphids, Whiteflies, LocustCENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
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Severe drought associated with konzo epidemicg p
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COCO22 and Cyanide in Cassava Leavesand Cyanide in Cassava LeavesCOCO2 2 and Cyanide in Cassava Leavesand Cyanide in Cassava Leaves
2000 50 years time
1500basi
s)
50 years time
1500
ry m
ass
b
1000
e (p
pm d
500
Cya
nid
20 years timeOO
CHCH33OO
glucoseglucose
0380 560 710
CyanideCyanideglucoseglucose
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Atmospheric CO2 (ppm)
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Zambezi 2005: konzo epidemicp
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Konzo related to high cyanide dietKonzo related to high cyanide diet
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Plant yieldPlant yield
Tuber growth
TODAY’S AIRTODAY’S AIR
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Plant yield
TODAY’S AIR AIR in 2060
Plant yield
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Climate Change in Our Backyards Climate Change in Our Backyards
COCOCOCO22
Heatwaves & smog Mold
70 Pollen P ti l t & ll
30
40
50
60
HeightSeed MassPollen
Pollen Particulates & pollen
Poison IvyWNV** Tree pollen
0
10
20
CO2 350ppm
CO2 700ppm
PollenBiomass
St lk 2X CO2X CO
Ragweed
LymeMushroom spores
Stalks 2X CO2X CO22
Ag Ag weedsweeds
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weedsweeds
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Energy Infrastructure VulnerabilitiesEnergy Infrastructure Vulnerabilities
•Storms and interruptions
•Heatwaves/blackouts/DG
•Cooling water and nuclear power plants24 of 104: H24 of 104: H22O shortages loomO shortages loom
•Melting permafrost and pipelines
•Warming LightningU.S. Lightning-related
Insurance Claims Rise with Temperature: 1990-1995
ratu
re (
F)
70
80
Lightning-related claims accelerate with temperature
5-6% increase inair-ground lightning for
g g g
•Montane glacier loss h d
Number of Claims
40
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2000
Aver
age
Tem
per
50
60
Source: Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Co. claims data (2000).E h b l li h i
0
19911992199319941995
Source: Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Co
Each symbol representsa lightning storm event
air ground lightning foreach 1-degree increase inair temperature hydropower
Coal-fired plants
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Each symbol represents a lightning storm event.Source: Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Co.
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Stabilization WedgesStabilization Wedges77
Energy Efficiency & Conservation1 Public Transport & Plug-in Hybrids
Natural Sinks9. Forest sequestration1. Public Transport & Plug-in Hybrids
2. ‘Smart grid:’ Distribution, Storage & Use Distribution, Storage & Use 3. Green Buildings4 Health Cities
q
10. Soil sequestration
11. Waste management & CH4 capture4. Healthy Cities
RenewablesFossil Fuel-based
12. Switch from Coal to Nat. Gas
5. Wind
6. PV/Solar thermal
13. C Capture & Storage (CCS)
14. H2 Fuel Cells
7. Geothermal
8. Biofuels
15. Coal-to-Liquid w/ CCS
16. Nuclear fission
One wedge:One wedge:One Yucca Mt q 5One Yucca Mt q 5--10 years10 years
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No regrets
Study needed
10 faults lie ithin a 2010 faults lie ithin a 20--mile mile radius of Yucca Mt.radius of Yucca Mt.
USGS 5/21/07USGS 5/21/07
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Technologies Warranting LCA StudyTechnologies Warranting LCA Studyg g yg g y
OilOilFormaldehyde & Acetaldehyde O3
Shale oilShale oilLiquid fuelsLiquid fuels
Oil (tar) sandsOil (tar) sands
BiofuelsBiofuels
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100 Mt/yr toxic fly ash, bottom ash & scrubber sludge:100 Mt/yr toxic fly ash, bottom ash & scrubber sludge:l dfill & t d C l tl dfill & t d C l tlandfills & wet ponds Cancer clusterslandfills & wet ponds Cancer clusters
Retention pondsRetention ponds
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Carbon Dioxide Capture and StorageCarbon Dioxide Capture and Storage
HumansHumans
VegetationVegetation
LimestoneLimestone
F tF t
AcidificationAcidification
FracturesFractures
--AsAs
--PbPbMicrobial Microbial
communitiescommunities
-IPCC Tech Summary on CCS
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1 GtC1 GtC 5,700 M5,700 M22
--E. Rubin. CMUE. Rubin. CMU
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Complementary Suite of Measures toComplementary Suite of Measures toSS CCFFScale UpScale Up
TrucksTrucksCarsCars
TrainsTrains
, , FastFast
PHEVs &EVsPHEVs &EVsBusesBuses
ShipsShipsPHEVs &EVsPHEVs &EVsPlanesPlanes
CleanlyCleanly-- HealthyHealthy LightLight railrailyypowered, powered,
smart gridsmart grid
Healthy Healthy CitiesCities
LightLight--railrail
ggCO2
O3, BC
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CleanlyCleanly--Powered, Smart GridsPowered, Smart GridsCleanlyCleanly Powered, Smart GridsPowered, Smart Grids
RenewablesRenewables+
N G Cogen PlantCogen PlantRegional
Nat. Gas Cogen PlantCogen Plant
MWMWNWNW
Co-Gen
Dist.Generation Central
Co GenGround source heat Ground source heat pumpspumps A/CA/C
Bat.Bat. SWSW
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Co-Gen
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757500FF
CO d146146ooFF
CO2 dome
O3 BC3
Dark roofDark roofWhite roofWhite roof
Dark roofDark roof
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Clean Energy: Adaptation and MitigationClean Energy: Adaptation and MitigationUnderwritingUnderwriting
Di t ib t d G tiDi t ib t d G ti
Distributed DevelopmentDistributed Development
Distributed GenerationDistributed Generation
Distributed DevelopmentDistributed DevelopmentFinanceFinance Swiss ReSwiss Re
Munich ReMunich Re
WaterWaterPurificationPurification
CookingCookingClinicsClinics
PumpingPumpingIrrigationIrrigation
ClinicsClinicsSchoolsSchoolsHomesHomesIrrigationIrrigation
DesalinationDesalinationHomesHomesComputersComputers
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Financial and Policy Instrumentsy
Aligning Rewards and Regulations “Carrots”TAXES, SUBSIDIES,
FUNDSPublic Health
Security
Private sectorInvestmentsInsurance
REGULATIONS
EFFICIENCY STDS
INSTITUTIONAL
FRAMEWORK
EconomyRatings
Public sectorIncenti es EFFICIENCY STDS
Climate Stability IncentivesInfrastructureR&D Procurement practices“Sticks”
THE ECONOMIC ENGINE
pSticks
New Energy Plan ENGINE for the
21st CENTURY
TransportUtilitiesBuildings
Corn Coal Nuclear
LobbiesCENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
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21st CENTURY
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http://chge.med.harvard.eduhttp://chge.med.harvard.edu
http://www.climatechangefutures.orghttp://www.climatechangefutures.org
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Green BuildingsGreen BuildingsCECE Green BuildingsGreen BuildingsEstimated Savings
GCGC SFSF
Respiratory disease: $6 to $14 billion
Allergies and asthma: $1 to $4 billion
s ed S v gs
Sick building syndrome: $10 to $30 billionWorker performance: $20 to $160 billion
St di
20% faster on math testsSchools with natural light
Studies Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
26% faster on reading tests
Stores with natural light: 40% more salesHospitals with better lighting & ventilation:
improved patient outcomesCENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
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improved patient outcomes
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Emissions Scenarios and Radiative ForcingEmissions Scenarios and Radiative Forcinggg
Scenario Projections diverge ~ 2040Scenario Projections diverge ~ 2040CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
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j gj g
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Changes in the CryosphereChanges in the CryosphereChanges in the CryosphereChanges in the Cryosphere
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Heatwaves: Europe 2003 p
Temperatures 11oF >30year average6 std. dev. from the mean
Deaths: >50,,000 Deaths: >50,,000 ••Crops & livestock: Crops & livestock: pp
US$12.3 billion US$12.3 billion ••Wildfires: Wildfires:
1.2 million acres1.2 million acres••Nuclear plant shutdownsNuclear plant shutdowns••Hydropower reducedHydropower reduced••Alpine glaciers: 10% lostAlpine glaciers: 10% lost
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HumanHuman--Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western USInduced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western US
Snow water equivalent or SWE/Precip Oct - March
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Processing cassavaProcessing cassava
• Grating • Grating – highly efficient
• Sun dryingSun drying– less labour intensive but not as
effective
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Upward Plant MigrationUpward Plant Migration
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G hi Shift f Di V tG hi Shift f Di V tGeographic Shifts of Disease VectorsGeographic Shifts of Disease Vectors
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DISASTERS AND DISEASE ‘CLUSTERS’DISASTERS AND DISEASE ‘CLUSTERS’
1997/98 El Niño1997/98 El Niño Event Event CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
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997/98 N o997/98 N o veve
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RodentsRodentsH i f ll i d htH i f ll i d htHeavy rains following droughtsHeavy rains following droughts
New food supplies & floods drive rodents from burrowsNew food supplies & floods drive rodents from burrowspppp
Plague: Malawi/Moz borderPlague: Malawi/Moz border
Emerging Arenaviruses: Zambia/SAEmerging Arenaviruses: Zambia/SA
CCCrop Crop &&
t dt d i li lstoredstored--grain lossesgrain losses
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Cassava, Yucca, Manioca, Tapioca, , , p
• Staple food >750 million people– 45% of sub-Sahara Africa
• Cultivation increasing gworldwide
• In Africa– Production tripled between
1980 and 2005
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