climate change, energy, and texas 0. 1 why we are focused on decarbonizing the electric grid? coal?...
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Why we are focused on decarbonizing the
electric grid?
Coal? In Texas? The role of coal on Texas
and U.S. climate change pollution
A quick look at the science of climate change.
Responsibility: The clean energy future of
Texas
Who began the concern that the burning of fossil fuels and the rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere might affect the climate?
(a)Al Gore - 1995(b)Robert Goddard – 1940(c)Albert Einstein - 1930(d)Charles Darwin - 1870
Arvid Högbom
Swedish Chemist
1857-1940
Högbom was the first scientist to realize that coal combustion could significantly increase the amount of CO2 in the air
Joseph Fourier
French Mathematician
1768-1830
Discovered through mathematical calculations that the earth must be heated with something more than the visible light from the sun.
Last Ice Age
Humans are ‘forcing’ the system in a new way. CO2 increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO2 has not been this high in more than half a million years.
Last Interglacial
Ice ages are not random. They are 'forced' (by earth’s orbital clock…. changes in the sunlight received).
350
300
250
200
Ca
rbo
n D
iox
ide
(
pp
mv)
600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Thousands of Years Before Present600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Thousands of Years Before Present
[Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4]
Last Ice Age
Humans are ‘forcing’ the system in a new way. CO2 increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO2 has not been this high in more than half a million years.
Last Interglacial
Ice ages are not random. They are 'forced' (by earth’s orbital clock…. changes in the sunlight received).
350
300
250
200
Ca
rbo
n D
iox
ide
(
pp
mv)
600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Thousands of Years Before Present600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Thousands of Years Before Present
[Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4]
CO2: where we are today because of last 200 years
Svante Arrhenius
1896: Calculated what would happen if atmospheric CO2 changed by 50%.
9 degrees F change in temperature
Gilbert Plass
Canadian Physicist - 1956
Lockheed
Worked on heat(IR)-seeking missiles
spare time: access to one of the first digital computers
– confirmed Arrhenius was right –
CO2 absorbs enough IR that planet is going to warm because of emissions
Texas: Driving the Economy...of Wyoming
Credit: Union of Concerned Scientists
$1.85 billion leaving Texas annually to pay for imported coal
Texas: Driving the Economy..of Wyoming
Credit: Union of Concerned Scientists
$71 per person per year from Texans for
Wyoming coal
National average is $18 per person / yearTexas spending at $6 per person / year
Texas: top on coal, near bottom on conservation
The Economics of The Carbon Rule•Texans are paying for carbon emissions and climate change today and
reducing emissions will save Texas money and help drive the economy.
•Texans today are spending $71 per capita and $284 per family of 4 annually for Wyoming coal. Approx. $1.8 billion per year in lost economic opportunity.
•Large and growing federal taxpayer exposures, per year (2012):–$20B Congressional Disaster Appropriations
–$10B National Flood Insurance Program
–$4B to 20B Federal Crop Insurance Program
•$300 per capita from every Texan for 2012 federal weather/climate disaster payments
•Climate and weather disasters in 2012 cost the American economy more than $100 billion.
•CPP climate & health benefits worth an estimated $55-$93 billion per yr in 2030. This includes avoiding 2,700-6,600 premature deaths & 140,000 -150,000 asthma attacks in children
•Outweighs the annual CPP compliance costs of $7.3 billion to $8.8 billion in 2030.
Texas: Slowly Getting Worse
Total CO2 via statewide total from Clean Air Markets 2013 annual data;Power MWh data via ERCOT.
New coal projects defeated.
175 plants defeated (95,000 MW) Source: Sierra Club New Coal tracker, April 14th 2012
Stats to Date:• 413 units• 145 whole plants• 54,665 MW
• 258 million MWh/yr• 209 million tons
CO2/yr
Announced retirements 2010 – May 2013
Coal’s share is plummeting.19
90
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Q1
2012
34%
36%
38%
40%
42%
44%
46%
48%
50%
52%
54%
52%
52%53%
53%52%
51%
52%53%
52%51%
52%51%
50%
51%50%
50%49% 49%
48%
44%45%
42%
36%
Coal
sha
re o
f gen
erati
on
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Electric Power Monthly. February 2012. Released April 30, 2012. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Short Term Energy Outlook. Released May 8, 2012
37
Why we are focused on decarbonizing the
electric grid?
Coal? In Texas? The role of coal on Texas
and U.S. climate change pollution
A quick look at the science of climate change.
Responsibility: The clean energy future of
Texas
Who created this problem?
Who did this? Who is responsible for the increase
in CO2 from 280 to 400 ppm?
Who created this problem?
source: U.S. Dept of Energy – CDIAC – Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Global Carbon Project
Fair play
The citizens of the industrialized Democracies are responsible for much more carbon pollution
per person than anyone in China or India .
1. Climate change is real2. Texas leads in carbon pollution3. Coal power plants are a huge
source4. The drought will become the new
normal for our kids and grandkids
5. I can use your help
ERCOT Texas
Electricity Generation by
Fuel Source
Accelerate what is already happening by
creating market space