climate change: effects on new england’s forests
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change: Effects on New England’s Forests
Maria JanowiakApril 4, 2017
Water InitiativeNortheast Workshop
Partnerships
Vulnerability Assessment
Forest Adaptation Resources
Adaptation Demonstrations
Climate Change Response Framework
Components: Progress:
125+ partner organizations (and counting)
8 published assessments, 1 in prep
Published in 2012, 2nd edition in 2016,& online workbook
200+ demonstrations underway
Structured, process oriented, works on multiple scales
www.forestadaptation.org
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
Vulnerability Assessment• Series of reports for natural
resource professionals• Focus on tree species and
forest ecosystems• Examine a range of future
climates • Evaluate key ecosystem
vulnerabilities to climate change • Does not make
recommendations or assess vulnerability to changes in mgmt., land use, policy
New England & Northern New York• Synthesize existing literature and climate change
assessments• Incorporate new results from models projecting
forest response to climate change
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
Vulnerability Assessment Contents• Current Forest Condition• Observed Climate Change• Future Climate Change • Climate Change Impacts
on Forests• Forest Ecosystem
Vulnerability• Implications for Forest
Management
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
Climate Change Tree Atlas: suitable habitat
LINKAGES: species establishment
LANDIS: productivity and composition
Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Increased disturbance from extreme events Heavy precipitation Flooding Ice storms Heat waves/droughts Wind storms Hurricanes
“Events” are very difficult to predict
VTRANS/VT ANR
NY DEC
Dan Turner,Cambridge Fire Dept.
NOAA
Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Future predictions of summer precipitation are mixed.
It’s like the weatherman is saying there’s a 50% chance of rain tomorrow.
More Precipitation
Less Precipitation
June-October
Figure: Lynch et al. 2016
Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Future predictions of summer precipitation are mixed.
Rain during the growing season may not change a lot.
Precipitation
Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Future predictions of summer precipitation are mixed.
Rain during the growing season may not change a lot.
Water loss from soils (evaporation)
Groundwater recharge
Runoff
PrecipitationWater loss from trees (transpiration)
Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Future predictions of summer precipitation are mixed.
Rain during the growing season may not change a lot.
Water loss from soils (evaporation)
Groundwater recharge
PrecipitationWater loss from trees (transpiration)
Runoff
Extreme events increase runoff
Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Future predictions of summer precipitation are mixed.
Rain during the growing season may not change a lot.
Extreme events increase runoff Warmer temperatures dry air & soilsResult: Risk of moisture stress & drought
Water loss from soils (evaporation)
Water loss from trees (transpiration)
Groundwater recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Plant and animal species will respond to changes in climate.
Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Plant and animal species will respond to changes in climate.
2070-2100 Low 2070-2100 High
Current Distribution
Importance ValueLow
High
Suitable Habitat: Red Spruce
Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Plant and animal species will respond to changes in climate.
Basal Area: Red Spruce
Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Plant and animal species will respond to changes in climate.
= species X suitable habitat
50% Reduction in Habitat:
Habitat reduced equally Best habitats remain
Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Plant and animal species will respond to changes in climate.
What really matters: Local conditions CompetitionManagementDisturbance
Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Interactions make all the difference.Chronic stressDisturbances Invasive species Insect pests Forest diseases
Image: Bartlett Tree Experts
Drought
Injury
Pests and Disease
Generally Challenges• Reduced growth from
moisture stress• Decline of northern &
boreal species• Disturbance from
extreme events• Wildfire potential• Forests pests & disease• Invasive species
Generally Opportunities• Increased productivity:
longer growing season• Increased productivity:
more CO2
• Increased habitat for some species
Depends on SITE and OBJECTIVES!
Effects on Forests
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
Last Slide: Location, Location, LocationResearch and assessments describe broad
trends but local conditions and managementmake the difference.
