climate change, directed innovation and energy transition ......u.s. shale gas revolution 1 5 0 0 0...
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Climate Change, Directed Innovation and EnergyTransition: The Long-run Consequences of the Shale
Gas Revolution
Daron Acemoglu (MIT), Philippe Aghion (Collège de France, LSE),Lint Barrage (UCSB) and David Hémous (University of Zurich)
Climate Economics WorkshopFRB Richmond
November 19, 2020
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U.S. Shale Gas Revolution
1500
020
000
2500
030
000
3500
0Pr
oduc
tion
(bcf
)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year
Data source: EIA.
U.S. Natural Gas Production
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The Rise of Gas
.1.2
.3.4
.5.6
1990 2000 2010 2020Year
Coal GasData source: EIA.
Fuel Shares in U.S. Electricity Generation
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Emissions and Emissions Intensity
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
CO
2Em
issi
ons
(mm
t)
.000
45.0
005
.000
55.0
006
.000
65C
O2
Inte
nsity
(mt/k
Wh)
1990 2000 2010 2020Year
CO2 Intensity CO2 EmissionsData sources: EIA and EPA.
CO2 Emissions in U.S. Electricity Generation
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This Paper: Shale Impacts on Innovation, Long-Run
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This Paper: Shale Impacts on Innovation, Long-Run
1 Empirically document decline in green / fossil electricity innovation
2 Theoretically analyze boom in directed technical change model:I ↓ CO2 in short-run if gas suffi ciently clean compared to coalI ↓ Green innovation at t = 1, for all t ≥ 1 under suitable conditionsI Can increase long-run emissions through several scenarios
3 Quantify shale boom, policy impacts in calibrated U.S. economyI Boom increases emissions in the long-runI Boom calls for stronger climate policy↑ clean research subsidies, carbon price (weakly)
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Literature ContextIAMs: Nordhaus (1980 ... 2019); Anthoff, Tol (e.g., 2014), Hope (2011), etc.
I Macro Effects: Golosov et al. (2014), Hassler, Krusell, Smith (2016), etc.
Endogenous technical change IAMs: Goulder, Mathai (2000), Nordhaus(2002), Popp (2004); Bosetti et al. (2007), Bretschger et al. (2017), etc.Directed technical change IAMs: Acemoglu et al. (2012 "AABH", 2016),Hémous (2016), Fried (2018), Lemoine (2018), Casey (2019), etc.
I AABH ’12: path dependence in clean versus dirty innovation; optimalpolicy relies on carbon tax and clean research subsidies
ETC Empirical evidence: Newell, Jaffe and Stavins (1999), Popp (2002),Calel and Dechezleprêtre (2012), Aghion et al. (2016), Meng (2019)CGE Energy Sector models: Manne (1977) ... Goulder, Hafstead (2013)
I Shale boom simulations: Burtraw et al. (2012), Venkatesh et al. (2012),Brown and Krupnick (2010), McJeon et al. (2014)
Empirical shale boom electricity studies: Linn, Muehlenbachs (2018),Fell, Kaffi ne (2018), Cullen, Mansur (2017), Holladay, LaRiviere (2017),Knittel, Metaxoglou, Trinade (2015)
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Roadmap
1 Empirical Motivation2 Analytic Model3 Quantitative Model4 Conclusion
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Empirical Motivation
Data
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Empirical Motivation
05
1015
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020year
U.S. EuropeData sources: World Bank, BLS. Real $2010.
Natural Gas Prices: U.S. vs. Europe
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Renewables over fossil fuel patents
Domestic patents by patent offi ces
Green all Renewable / Total Patents Fossil fuel / Total Patents Gov RD Citations
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Wind / Fossil Fuel
solar storage Energy saving
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Price regressions
Panel regression of patenting over natural gas prices with 2-yr lagI Period 1978-2015.
Data:I Natural gas price indexes by country: International Energy AgencyI GDP per capita: OECDI Public R&D support for fossil vs. green: International Energy Agency
Country fixed effects; Year fixed effects
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Natural Gas Prices
Granted Weights Domestic Diff-in-diff Pre-2005 Sample Tax Controls
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Roadmap
1 Empirical Motivation2 Analytic Model3 Quantitative Model4 Conclusion
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Production: 3 types of energy
Discrete time economy.
Final good produced according to:
Yt =((1− ν)Y
λ−1λ
Pt + ν(AEtEt
) λ−1λ
) λλ−1
,
I YPt ∼ production input produced via YPt = APtLPtI APt , AEt ∼ productivity in goods production, energy effi ciency
Energy composite Et :
Et =(
κcEε−1
εc ,t + κsE
ε−1ε
s ,t + κgEε−1
εg ,t
) εε−1.
I Ec ,t ,Es ,t , and Eg ,t ∼ coal, natural gas, and green energy, resp.
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Energy production
Production of energy i ∈ {c, s, g} is given by:
Ei ,t = min (Qit ,Rit ) ,
I Qit ∼ energy input (e.g., power plant); Rit ∼ resource (e.g., coal)I Green resource is free but extraction of natural gas and coal is costly
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Energy production
Production of energy i ∈ {c, s, g} is given by:
Ei ,t = min (Qit ,Rit ) ,
I Qit ∼ energy input (e.g., power plant); Rit ∼ resource (e.g., coal)I Green resource is free but extraction of natural gas and coal is costly
Energy input i (“power plant”) is produced according to:
Qit = exp(∫ 1
0ln qijtdj
)qijt : Intermediate inputs (e.g., steam turbine, boiler, etc.)
I Produced by monopolist j in energy sector i via qijt = Aijt lqijt
I Monopolist’s technology γ times more productive than fringe
→ Avg. productivity in power plant type i : lnAit =∫ 10 lnAijtdj
→ Endogenous
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Resource production
Extracting 1 unit of coal or gas requires 1 unit of extraction inputI Extraction input is produced symmetrically to power plant inputI E.g., gas well is aggregate of intermediates (drill, proppants, etc.)
Denote Bit the extraction productivity (exogenous).I Shale gas boom = increase in Bst .
Coal and gas in infinite supply: resource price = extraction cost
Resource use leads to pollution with Pi ,t = ξ iRi ,t and
ξc > ξs > 0 = ξg
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Short-Run Impacts of the Shale Gas Boom
Consider a one time increase in gas extraction technology Bst
∂ ln Emissions∂ lnBst
=∂ ln Emissions Intensity
∂ lnBst︸ ︷︷ ︸Substition out ofcoal, green
+∂ ln Energy
∂ lnBst︸ ︷︷ ︸Scale Effect
PropositionThe shale gas boom leads to a decrease in emissions in the short-runprovided that natural gas is suffi ciently clean compared to coal.
Details
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Innovation
There is a mass 1 of scientists who can decide in which sector to workI sft∼ share working on fossil fuels generation technologyI sgt∼ share working on green generation technology
Each scientists has a probability of success given by: ηi s−ψit
A successful innovator obtains a technology γ times more productiveI Patents last for 1 period onlyI If there is no innovation, monopoly rights are allocated randomly
Marginal scientist indifferent btwn. innovating in fossil fuels or green
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Innovation allocation
The sector with the largest profits attract most scientists. (up to anadjustment for ηi ) Details
More advanced sector gets a larger market ⇒ Larger profits fromfurther innovation
I Better green technology Ag (t−1) leads to more green innovationI Better gas technology As(t−1) leads to more fossil innovation (undersome regularity conditions).
Improvement in gas extraction technology Bst :I Extraction and power plant are complements ⇒ Higher gas extractiontechnology Bst encourages innovation in gas generation Ast
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Shale gas boom and innovation
Propositioni) A shale gas boom (an increase in Bs1) leads to reduced innovation ingreen technologies at t = 1 (i.e., to a decrease in sg1).
ii) Green innovation declines for all t ≥ 1 under suitable conditions.
Details
Effect of the shale boom on innovation builds on itself over time
Endogenous B
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Long-run equilibrium (constant extraction technologies).
Long-run equilibrium depends on future extraction technology
1) If fossil fuel extraction productivities (Bct , Bst) remain constant afterthe boom, then:
Fossil resources become relatively more expensive over time
Eventually, innovation moves to the clean sector
⇒ Shale gas boom (i) delays clean energy transition and(ii) increases emissions in the long-run*
Prop.
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Long-run equilibrium (growing extraction technologies)
2) If fossil fuel extraction productivities (Bct , Bst) grow at constant rateafter the boom, then:
Path dependence dominates and innovation allocation is bang-bang
⇒ Shale gas boom makes fossil-fuel path more likely Prop.
Three cases depending on initial green generation technology AgtI Low Agt : Shale boom hastens transition to all-fossil economyI Interm. Agt : Shale boom pushes economy from green to fossil pathI High Agt : Shale boom delays transition to green economy
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Roadmap
1 Empirical Motivation2 Analytic Model3 Quantitative Model4 Conclusion
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Benchmark Setup
Production inputs now capital-labor aggregates:
YPt = APtLϕPtK
1−ϕPt
qijt = Aijt(lqijt)φ (
kqijt)1−φ
and rijt = Bijt(l rijt)φ (k rijt)1−φ
Different elasticities of substitution between (coal, gas), green:
Et =
((κcE
σ−1σ
c ,t + κsEσ−1
σs ,t
) σσ−1
ε−1ε
+ κgEε−1
εg ,t
) εε−1
Account for local pollutants (e.g., SO2) and abatement costs Λi :
pit︸︷︷︸Energy price i
= prit︸︷︷︸Resource price i
+ pqit︸︷︷︸Input price i
(1+Λi )
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Calibration (1)
Obtain micro-data of U.S. electricity generators’costs and outputs.
Item Data Source(s)
Plant capital, Labor, O&M, output Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
-> Annualized KL-costs/MWh pqit (1+Λi ) (FERC) "Form 1" Filings
Local pollution abatement capital, O&M EIA Form 767, 923
expenditures -> costs/MWh pqitΛi
Fuel resource costs/MWh prit FERC Form 423
EIA Forms 423, 923
For renewables, supplement with Lazard (2008-2010) cost estimates
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Calibration (2)
Parameters from the literature:I ε = 1.8561, Papageorgiou et al. (2013)I σ = 2, Bosetti et al. (2007), Ko and Dahl (2001), Sonderholm (1991)I λ = 0.5, Chen et al. (2017), Van der Werf (2008), Bosetti et al. (2007)I Labor shares: φ = 0.403 (Barrage, 2019) and ϕ = 0.67
γ = 1.07, Match 2004-2014 industry profits data (U.S. Census)I Petroleum and Coal, Durable Manufacturing, Wholesale
Base period: 2006-2010I We get initial aggregate capital K0 (BEA).
Shale boom effect on Bs :I Based on relative coal, gas resource price changes: +100%I Alternative based on simple gas price change: +54%
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Calibration (4)
Solve for initial technology levels (Ag0,Ac0,As0,Bc0,Bs0,AP ,0, AE ,0)and energy aggregator distribution parameters (κc , κs , κg ) to jointlymatch data moments:
I GDP (BEA)I Electricity generation (coal, gas, green) (EIA)I Generation costs (coal, gas, green) (FERC, EIA, NREL)I Employment share in extraction, electricity, gen. manuf. (BLS)
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Short-Run Impact Estimates
Total Effects of Improved Shale Extraction Technology Bs0%∆Emiss. %∆Energy %∆CO2Intensity Consumption Emissions
Baseline Parameters+50% Increase in Bs0 -9.2% +5.8% -4.0%+100% Increase in Bs0 -13.5% +10.3% -4.5%
Sensitivity
Cullen and Mansur (2017) empirically estimate 10% CO2 emissionsintensity declines in short-run for a 67% decline in gas prices.
Data: 2006-10 vs. 2011-15: Emissions intensity decline 11.35%.
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Calibration (5): Dynamics
1 period = 5 years
Recall scientists’probability of success: ηi s−ψit
Set ηf = ηg and growth rate of production input technology APt tomatch balanced long-run growth of 2%/year
⇒ Set ψ = 0.552 to match empirical estimates of price elasticity ofgreen innovation w.r.t. natural gas price (0.35)
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Calibration (5): Dynamics
1 period = 5 years
Recall scientists’probability of success: ηi s−ψit
Set ηf = ηg and growth rate of production input technology APt tomatch balanced long-run growth of 2%/year
⇒ Set ψ = 0.552 to match empirical estimates of price elasticity ofgreen innovation w.r.t. natural gas price (0.35)
Carbon cycle and damages from Golosov et al. (2014)I ROW, U.S. non-electricity emissions from RICE (exogenous here)I ρ = 1.5% per year and elasticity of intertemporal substitution = 1/2
Let K grows exogenously (orthogonal to our analysis).
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Unmanaged boom (constant extraction technology)Effect of one-time 100% increase in gas extraction technology Bst :
2050 2100 2150 2200 2250Year
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
shar
e
Panel A: Share of scientists in fossil fuels
without the boomwith the boom
2050 2100 2150 2200 2250Year
10
5
0
5
10
15
20
perc
ent
emissions (left)
2050 2100 2150 2200 22502
1.5
1
0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
perc
ent
Panel B: % change
output (right)net output (right)net output, high dam. (right)
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Unmanaged boom results (growing extraction technology)Effect of one-time 100% increase in gas extraction technology BstBenchmark ∼ "Low Agt"
2100 2200 2300Year
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
shar
e
Panel A: Share of scientists in fossil fuels
without the boomwith the boom
2100 2200 2300Year
20
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
perc
ent
Panel B: % change
outputemissionsnet outputnet output (high dam.)
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Data vs. Model: Emissions Intensity
Time Model ∆ξE Actual ∆ξE Scenario
2006-2010vs. -13.46% -11.35% Static2011-2015 -14.09% Constant B
-13.17% Growing B
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Data vs. Model: Innovation Ratio
Time Model Patentsgr εnPatentsfossilData Patentsgr εn
PatentsfossilScenario
2006-2010 1.31 1.47 Constant B2011-2015 0.98 0.99 Constant B
2006-2010 1.31 1.47 Growing B2011-2015 0.95 0.99 Growing B
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Optimal policy: Setup
Consider a social planner who maximizes US welfare but takesemissions from ROW (and outside electricity) as given
I Free-riding ⇒ policy is not ambitious enough.I Optimal tax level higher with emissions spillovers, but unmanagedboom impacts similar. Details
Two externalities ⇒ two instruments:I Carbon tax to correct for environmental externality.I Clean research subsidy to take into account that private value ofinnovation is too short-sighted.
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Optimal Policy Levels (No Boom, Const. Extr. Tech.)
2050 2100 2150 2200 2250Year
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
shar
e
Panel A: Share of scientists in fossil fuels
laissezfaireoptimum
2050 2100 2150 2200 2250Year
102
103
104
dolla
rs
carbon tax (left)
2050 2100 2150 2200 225020
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
perc
ent
Panel B: Carbon tax and research subsidy
clean research subsidy (right)
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Effect of shale gas boom on optimal policy
2050 2100 2150 2200
Year
0
0.2
0.4
0.6sh
arePanel A: Share of scientists in fossil fuels
no boom
boom
no boom & high dam.
boom & high dam.
2050 2100 2150 2200
Year
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
perce
nt
Panel B: Effect of the boom on the carbon tax (% )
regular damagehigh damage
2050 2100 2150 2200
Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
perce
nt
Panel C: Effect of the boom on green research subs. (p.p. )
regular damagehigh damage
⇒ Shale gas boom calls for more ambitious policies.
Growing Extraction Tech. Results
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SummaryMotivating stylized fact: Green innovation decline after shale boom
⇒ Directed technical change model; find theoretically & quantitatively:I Boom decreased CO2 emissions in short-run, but:I But increase CO2 emissions in long-run through innovation channels
⇒ Call for stronger policy responses to address climate change.
Qunatitivate results similar in Extended Model with:
I Distinct coal and natural gas innovationI BAU policies
Open questions: Cross-country differences in baseline shale boomimpacts, rising extraction costs from depletion (Schwerhoff and Stuermer,2019), ... Stephie’s comments!
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Extended version: Overview
So far: All fossil innovation advances coal, gas proportionally
⇒ Allow for distinct innovation in gas vs. coal
So far: zero base period innovation subsidies
⇒ Allow initial subsidies for innovation in coal qc , gas qs , and green qg
So far: zero base period generation subsidies, taxes
⇒ Allow initial subsidies for generation w/ coal τc , gas τs , and green τg
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Separating coal vs gas innovation (1)
Background (Lanzi et al., 2011):
‘Shared component’specification also in EIA NEMS model Details
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Separating coal vs gas innovation (2)
Distinguish R&D in coal vs. gas generation:I Fraction (1− χ) of coal innovation specific to coal (and v.v.)I Fraction χ of coal innovation useful for gas generation (and v.v.)
Scientists can work in three sectors: sct , sst , sgt
Quantification:I Set χ = 0.855 to match USPTO 2006-10 green-fossil patent ratio.I Set ηg = ηf (1+ χ
1ψ )ψ to ensure equal long-run growth potential.
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Base period innovation subsidies
Allow for base period innovation to already have been subsidized.
Equilibrium allocation now determined by Details :
Πct
Πst=1− qc1− qs
andΠct1−qc +
Πst1−qs
Πgt1−qg
= 2
Quantification:I NSF "Industrial Research and Development" Survey.I "Federal Sources Share" for most recent years available (2000-07).I Fossil: 3.9% = qc = qsI Renewables: 9.1%, Nuclear: 45.3% → Total R&D spending-weightedqg = 21.05%
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Base period generation subsidies
Allow for base period generation to already have been taxed
Quantification:I Lazard renewables levelized cost estimates with vs. without subsidiesI Generation-weighted avg. green generation tax τg = −3.23%I Small because of large nuclear generation share
I Consider τc = τs = 0I Even by 2015 < 8% of U.S. electricity-based carbon emissions subjectto a price (OECD, 2018)
I But: Renewable portfolio standards hard to captureI Robustness: τg = 2× (−3.23%), τc = τs = 5%
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Extended model results overview
Static Effects%∆Emiss. %∆Energy %∆CO2Intensity Consumption Emissions
Benchmark Model -13.5% +10.3% -4.5%Extended Model -12.8% +10.3% -3.8%2× τg , τc , τs 5% -13.5% +10.6% -4.4%
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Extended model results overview
Static Effects%∆Emiss. %∆Energy %∆CO2Intensity Consumption Emissions
Benchmark Model -13.5% +10.3% -4.5%Extended Model -12.8% +10.3% -3.8%2× τg , τc , τs 5% +10.6% -4.4%
Dynamic Effects2016 2066
%∆Innovg %∆CO2 %∆Innovg %∆CO2Benchmark Model -13.6% -4.2% -12.0% -0.0%Extended Model -21.6% -3.4% -14.3% +0.9%2× τg , τc , τs 5% -23.6% -4.0% -16.1% +0.1%
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BAU Results (constant extraction technology)
2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
Year
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
shar
e
Panel B: Share of scientists in coal
without the boomwith the boom
2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
Year
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
shar
e
Panel A: Share of scientists in natural gas
without the boomwith the boom
2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
Year
0
0.5
1
shar
e
Panel C: Share of scientists in green
without the boomwith the boom
2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
Year
0
10
20
perce
nt
Panel D: % changeoutput
emissions
net output
net output (high dam.)
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BAU Results (growing extraction technology)
2050 2100 2150 2200Year
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
shar
e
Panel B: Share of scientists in coal
without the boomwith the boom
2050 2100 2150 2200Year
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
shar
e
Panel A: Share of scientists in natural gas
without the boomwith the boom
2050 2100 2150 2200Year
0
0.5
1
shar
e
Panel C: Share of scientists in green
without the boomwith the boom
2050 2100 2150 2200Year
0
10
20
perc
ent
Panel D: % changeoutputemissionsnet outputnet output (high dam.)
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Renewables over fossil fuel patentsDomestic + foreign patents by patent offi ces
Back
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Renewables over total patents
Back
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Fossil-fuel / total patents
Back
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R&D public expenditures
Back
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Renewable / Fossil fuel (citations-weighted)
Back
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Solar / Fossil-fuel
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Storage / Fossil-fuel (all)
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Energy-saving / Fossil-fuel (all)
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Natural Gas Prices: granted patents
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Natural Gas Prices: weighted regressions
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Natural Gas Prices: Domestic Inventors Only (weighted)
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"Diff-in-Diff" ComparisonShale boom: 2009 + 2 year lag (US and Canada) (Holladay and JacobLaRiviere, 2017)
I Construct panel of shale boom bans across countries. Period2001-2016.
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"Diff-in-Diff" Comparison: Domestic Patents
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Short-Run Impacts of the Shale Gas Boom
∂ lnP∂ lnBs
=CsBs
ε
(ξsEs
ξcEc + ξsEs− psEspEE
)︸ ︷︷ ︸
substitution effect
+psEspEE
(λ+ (1− λ)
LEL
)︸ ︷︷ ︸
scale effect
.Proposition 1: A shale boom (one-time increase in Bs ) decreasesemissions in the short-run provided that natural gas is suffi ciently cleancompared to coal, that is, provided that the following condition is satisfied:
ξsξc
<
κεcC
εc
[ε−
(λ+ (1− λ)
νλAλ−1Et C λ−1
E
νλAλ−1Et C λ−1
E +(1−ν)λ−1Aλ−1P
)]κεsC εs
(λ+
(1−λ)νλAλ−1Et C λ−1
E
νλAλ−1Et C λ−1
E +(1−ν)λ−1Aλ−1P
)+ εCs
(κεcC
ε−1c + κε
gCε−1g)
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Shale gas boom and innovation
Propositioni) A shale gas boom (an increase in Bs1) leads to reduced innovation ingreen technologies at t = 1 (i.e., to a decrease in sg1).
ii) Green innovation declines for all t ≥ 1 ifmin
(Bct/Ac (t−1), Bst/As(t−1)
)> γηf / (ε− 1) for all t > 1.
If Bct/Ac (t−1) and Bst/As(t−1) are too low, improving generationtechnology As(t−1) or Ac (t−1) has little effect on overall coal, gastechnology Cct or Cst , and thus on attractiveness of fossil innovation.
Imagine power plant burning moon rocks as fuelI Extremely costly extraction (low Bmoonrock )I Improving moon rock boiler (Amoonrock ) does little to help reduceoverall cost of moon rock power generation!
Back
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Long-run equilibrium
PropositionAssume that Bct and Bst are constant over time and thatln (γ) η < ψ/ ((ε− 1) (1− ψ)).i) Then there exists a time tswitch such that for all t > tswitch, sgt > 1/2and eventually all innovations occurs in green technologies. If ε ≥ 2, ashale gas boom at t = 1 delays the time tswitch and reduces greeninnovation until then. ii) In addition for ε ≥ 2 and for lnγ small, emissionsare increased in the long-run.
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Long-run equilibrium
PropositionAssume that (i) Bct and Bst grow exogenously at factor γη,(ii) ln (γ) η < ψ/ ((ε− 1) (1− ψ)) , and (iii)min (Bc1/Ac0, Bs1/As0) > γη/ (ε− 1). Then a shale gas boom at t = 1decreases green innovations for all t ≥ 1. For small enough initial greenproductivity Ag0, emissions will grow forever regardless the boom, and forlarge enough initial Ag0, emissions converge to zero regardless.For an intermediate range of Ag0, emissions grow forever following ashale boom but converge to zero absent the boom.
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Equilibrium innovation in extended model (1)
Equilibrium innovation allocation sct , sst , sgt now satisfies:
1. After-subsidy returns equated between coal, gas:
Πct
Πst=1− qc1− qs
⇔(sctsst
)ψ
=(1− qs )
(κσc
(1+τct )σ(1+Λct (µct ))C
σct
Act+ χ κσ
s(1+τst )
σ(1+Λst (µst ))C
σst
Ast
)(1− qc )
(χ κσ
c(1+τct )
σ(1+Λct (µct ))C
σct
Act+ κσ
s(1+τst )
σ(1+Λst (µst ))C
σst
Ast
)
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Equilibrium innovation in extended model (2)
Equilibrium innovation allocation sct , sst , sgt now satisfies:1. After-subsidy returns equated between coal, gas:
Πct
Πst=1− qc1− qs
2. After-subsidy returns equated between fossil, green:
(Πct/(1− qc )) + (Πst/(1− qs ))(Πgt/(1− qg ))
= 2
⇔ηf C
ε−σft
(s−ψct
1−qc +χs−ψst
1−qs
)κσc
(1+τct )σ(1+Λct (µct ))C
σct
Act+
ηgs−ψgt
1−qgκεg
(1+τgt )εC ε−1gt
...
(χs−ψct
1−qc +s−ψst1−qs
)κσs
(1+τst )σ(1+Λst (µst ))C
σst
Ast
ηgs−ψgt
1−qgκεg
(1+τgt )εC ε−1gt
= 2
3. sct + sst + sgt = 1. Back
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Endogenous innovation in extraction technologiesAllow for endogenous innovation in extraction technologies.
I sgt scientists improve green technology Agt ,I sAf t scientists improve both fossil fuel power plant technologies Actand Ast
I sBs t scientists improve natual gas extraction technology and sBc timprove coal gas extraction technology.
Assume equal potential growth on the green path and on the fossilfuel path: ηBs = ηBc = ηAf = 2
1−ψηg .
1 There is path dependence in green innovation vs fossil fuelinnovations.
2 If on a fossil fuel path and if ε ≥ 2, there is path dependence betweencoal and natural gas extraction.
3 On impact, a shale gas boom reduces green innovation relative tofossil fuel power plant innovation.
I If εCs ≥ Bs , it also reduces green innovation absolutely.Back
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Optimal Policy Levels (No Boom, growing extractionproductivity)
2050 2100 2150 2200Year
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
shar
e
Panel A: Share of scientists in fossil fuels
laissezfaireoptimum
2050 2100 2150 2200Year
102
103
104
dolla
rs
carbon tax (left)
2050 2100 2150 2200Year
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
perc
ent
Panel B: Carbon tax and research subsidy
clean research subsidy (right)
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Shale Boom Impacts on Optimal Policy (growingextraction productivity)
2050 2100 2150 2200Year
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
shar
ePanel A: Share of scientists in fossil fuels
no boomboomno boom & high dam.boom & high dam.
2050 2100 2150 2200Year
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
perc
ent
Panel B: Effect of the boom on the carbon tax (% )
regular damagehigh damage
2050 2100 2150 2200Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
perc
ent
Panel C: Effect of the boom on green research subs. (p.p. )
regular damagehigh damage
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Comparing optimal policy outcomes vs laissez-faire
Growing extraction tech., boom and low damages.
2050 2100 2150 2200Year
50
40
30
20
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
perc
ent
Panel A: % change relative to laissezfaire
emissions (boom)
2050 2100 2150 2200Year
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
perc
ent
Panel B: % change relative to laissezfaire
output (boom)net output (boom)
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Effect of shale gas boom under optimal policyCase with growing extracting technologies and low damages
2050 2100 2150 2200Year
10
0
10
20
30
40
perc
ent
Panel A: % change in optimumrelative to no boom
emissions (boom)
2050 2100 2150 2200Year
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
perc
ent
Panel B: % change in optimumrelative to no boom
output (boom)net output (boom)
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Natural Gas Prices: Pre-Boom Sample
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Emissions Spillovers
Benchmark: Only U.S. electricity emissions endogenousI U.S. non-electric, global emissions exogenous (RICE, Nordhaus, 2011)
First-pass proxy for technology spillovers: emissions responseelasticities
Emissionst = EUS ,Elect + EROW ,Elec
t · (1+%∆EUS ,Elect · εElec )
+[EUS ,N .Elect + EROW ,N .Elec
t
]· (1+%∆EUS ,Elect · εN .Elec )
Consider εElec = 1 and εN .Elec = 0.1
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Emissions Spillovers
Unmanaged boom, constant extraction tech.:
2050 2100 2150 2200 2250Year
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
shar
e
Panel A: Share of scientists in fossil fuels
without the boomwith the boom
2050 2100 2150 2200 2250Year
10
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
perc
ent
Panel B: % change
outputemissionsnet outputnet output (high dam.)
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Emissions Spillovers
Unmanaged boom, growing extraction tech.:
2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300Year
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
shar
e
Panel A: Share of scientists in fossil fuels
without the boomwith the boom
2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300Year
20
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
perc
ent
Panel B: % change
outputemissionsnet outputnet output (high dam.)
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Emissions Spillovers
Optimal carbon tax (constant extraction tech.)
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090Year
0
500
1000
1500O
ptim
al C
arbo
n Ta
x ($
2015
)Optimal Carbon Tax Levels
BenchmarkEmissions Spillovers
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Empirical Motivation: Patent Data
World Patent Statistical Database (PATSTAT): All patents 1970-2015I "Fossil fuel" electricity patents: Lanzi, Verdolini and Hascic (2011)I "Green" electricity patents: Y02E/10 (renewables); Y02E/50(biofuels), Y02E/30 (nuclear).
Allocate patents to the country where they are applied for.I Possibly restrict to patents by local inventors as well.
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Short-Run Impact Estimates: Sensitivity
Total Effects of Improved Shale Extraction Technology Bs0%∆Emiss. %∆Energy %∆CO2Intensity Consumption Emissions
+100% Increase in Bs0Baseline Parameters -13.5% +10.3% -4.5%Higher ε = 3 -7.2% +10.7% +2.8%Lower ε = 1.5 -15.6% +10.2% -7.0%Higher σ = 2.2 -15.9% +10.6% -7.0%Lower σ = 1.8 -11.0% +10.0% -2.1%Lower λ = 0.3 -13.5% +6.2% -8.1%Lower pg0 (NREL) -15.9% +11.2% -6.5%
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Innovation allocation: details
Denote effective productivity of energy type i asCit ≡
(A−1it + B
−1it
)−1I Let pit = γwt/Cit be the price input of type i .
An innovator in the green sector obtains expected profits:
Πgt = ηgts−ψgt
(1− 1
γ
)pgtEgt
An innovator in the fossil fuel sector obtains expected profits:
Πft = ηfts−ψft
(1− 1
γ
)(CctActpctEct +
CstAstpstEst
)In equilibrium, innovators must be indifferent so that Πgt = Πft ⇒(
sgtsft
)ψ
≈κεgA
ε−1gt−1
1Act−1
κεc
(1
Act−1+ 1
Bct
)−ε+ 1
Ast−1κεd
(1
Ast−1+ 1
Bst
)−ε
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