Climate change

Dihydrogen monoxide (DHMO):

• is also known as hydroxyl acid, and is the major component of acid rain. • contributes to the greenhouse effect.• may cause severe burns. • contributes to the erosion of our natural landscape. • accelerates corrosion and rusting of many metals. • may cause electrical failures and decreased effectiveness of automobile brakes. • has been found in excised tumors of terminal cancer patients.

Despite the danger, dihydrogen monoxide is often used:

• as an industrial solvent and coolant. • in nuclear power plants. • in the production of styrofoam. • as a fire retardant. • in many forms of cruel animal research. • in the distribution of pesticides. Even after

washing, produce remains contaminated by this chemical.

• as an additive in certain "junk-foods" and other food products.

The American government has refused to ban the production, distribution, or use of this damaging chemical due to its "importance to the economic health of this nation." In fact, the navy and other military organizations are conducting experiments with DHMO, and designing multi-billion dollar devices to control and utilize it during warfare situations. Hundreds of military research facilities receive tons of it through a highly sophisticated underground distribution network. Many store large quantities for later use.

Did you know about DHMO before?

A) Yes

B) No

C) I think I’ve heard of it

Are you worried about dihydrogen monoxide now?

A) Yes

B) No

C) Not sure

How can we be sure?

GW linked to CO2 (and other gases)…

Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 13, 1941, photo by W.O. FieldMuir Glacier, Alaska, August 13, 1941, photo by W.O. Field

Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 31, 2004, photo by B.F. Molnia

Are you on track for submitting a great term paper this Friday?

A) Oh s*** it’s due this week?!

B) I’ll manage

C) Just a few things left to work out

D) Pretty much done already

Climate change, part IIor

“why hasn’t it snowed yet?”

Review: central concept

What components of climate system are important?

True or false

Scientists are in debate about whether or not the extra GHGs in the air are because of humans

A) T

B) F

True or false

Scientists are in debate about whether GHGs are affecting the temperature of the earth.

A) T

B) F

Forcing?

IPCC, 2001

Models?

Is it our CO2? Yes• Bookkeeping: quantitative match between

known burning and observed extra CO2 in system;

• No other possible explanation adequate (volcanic source 1-2% of ours…);

• Air shows fossil fuels responsible:

Atmospheric 13C dilution—extra CO2 is or was living (not volcanic, dissolved in ocean, etc.)

Atmospheric 14C dilution--extra CO2 is from old source (not from modern plants)

Atmospheric O2 drop--excess CO2 is from burning (not from ocean or volcanoes)

CO2 is rising. We’re burning much fossil fuel (~$1200 each, each year, just to import oil), and we see the CO2 from our tail pipes in the air and the ocean. Here is the Keeling Curve showing the rise since 1958.

The wiggles are the “breathing” of the seasons (spring leaf growth and autumn leaf death).

http

://w

ww

.npr

.org

/tem

plat

es/s

tory

/sto

ry.p

hp?s

tory

Id=

9885

767

Does a correlation between two variables imply a causal relationship?

A) Yes

B) Probably

C) No

D) What?

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/01/uncertainty-noise-and-the-art-of-model-data-comparison/#more-523

Source: Gavin Schmidt, NASA GISS

Global warming is clearly continuing. Be careful of cherry-picking, and weather.

Climate usually a 30-year average, for good reasons!

Next slide

Warming over last century:

• UNEQUIVOCAL, from cautious IPCC

• Direct thermometer measurements: In air (including far from cities); In ocean water; In ground;On balloons;From satellites;• Mass loss from almost all glaciers,

including those getting more snow;• Great majority of biology shifts in

direction expected for warming;• (There still is weather--some

people who should know better look at a cool day, week or year and claim warming stopped. Silliness.)

Red shows what happened.

Gray showswhat modelthinks happened.

Nature doesn’texplain whathappened.

Humans don’texplain whathappened.

Together explains;was nature, nowmostly us.

IPCC, 2001

Movie?

A) Yes!

B) Maybe

C) Not so much

When?

A) Tues Dec 7 @ 7pm

B) Wed Dec 8 @ 7pm

Solutions?

• Efficiency

• Conservation

• Energy efficiency means providing the same energy services (or better) for less energy use– In contrast, conservation means being

satisfied with less energy service

Solutions?

• Clean coal

• Biofuels

• Nuclear

• Wind

• Solar (and Solar thermal)

• Solar cells (PVs)

• Cap-and-trade

Kyoto protocol

• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) -- international environmental treaty with the goal of achieving "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.“

• Different protocol for different countries – reduce GHG emissions

•

How did the U.S. respond?

• responsible for 36.1% of the 1990 emission levels of Annex I countries

• George W. Bush (2001) rejects the Kyoto Protocol on the grounds that it would hurt the economy

UNFCCC found:

• the largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases originated in developed countries;

• per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low;

• the share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet social and development needs.

Who’s in the top ten?• China – 17%, 5.8 • United States – 16%, 24.1 • European Union-27 – 11%, 10.6 • Indonesia - 6%, 12.9 • India – 5%, 2.1 • Russia – 5%, 14.9 • Brazil – 4%, 10.0 • Japan – 3%, 10.6 • Canada – 2%, 23.2 • Mexico – 2%, 6.4

The second figure is the country's/region's per-capita emissions, in units of tons of GHG per-capita

Copenhagen accord (Dec 2009)Continuance of Kyoto.

The signees recognize scientific findings that proclaim climate change to be one of the greatest challenges faced in our time.

• They agree to work towards keeping the rise in global temperatures to below two degrees Celsius.

• Large industrialized countries must provide plans for cutting carbon emissions by January 30th, 2010.

• They must prevent deforestation.• Developing countries should be provided with incentives to use clean

energy.• countries will now be held to account for what they are actually achieving,

with mandatory reporting every two years for developing countries.• to aid developing countries, $30 billion of immediate short term funding from

developed countries will be provided over the next three years to kick start emission reduction measures.

We are 5% of the world’s population, using 20% of the fossil fuel resources.Per capita power consumption

World = 2kW (+7%) = 0.3 bbl/dayU.S. = 10kW (-9%) = 1.3 bbl/day

CO2 emissions / climate change facts

CO2 ↑ 36% due to humans

gasoline: 2.32 kg CO2/L, or 19.4 #/gal (diesel 15% more)

for 30 mpg efficiency 0.65 #/mi

CO2: kg / kWh: production left:

Coal: 0.32 231-417 yrs

Petrol: 0.24 (or 2.3 per L) 39-43 yrs

Natural gas: 0.19 167-173 yrs

Maximum Available Energy:

• Sun 173,000 TW• Wind 1220 TW• Plants 166 TW• Waves & currents 65 TW• Geothermal 44 TW• Human use today 15 TW• Tides 4 TW• Hydroelectric 1.9 TW