Climate Change

By Pratibha Singh IFS

UP State Biodiversity BoardLucknow , Uttar Pradesh

The Land and Oceans have warmed

Precipitation patterns have changed

Sea Levels have risen

IPCC ConclusionsWarming of the climate system

1. Increasing in global average air and ocean temperatures

2. Rising global average sea level

3. Reductions of snow and ice

Warmest 12 years on record

Source: IPCC . Climate change 2007 : Synthesis report

GEO 4 Unprecedented environmental change is indisputable

– The red areas on these two images show the expansion of seasonal melting of the Greenland ice sheet from 1992 to 2002.– The Yellow line shows the temperature increased by 1ºC from 1900 to 2000

GEO 4   Asia and the Pacific is vulnerable to climate change

Climate change will impinge on the sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia-Pacific

South Pacific

. The Most vulnerable states ……

An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other

changes in the climate system

Global-average surface temperature increased by about 0.6 ºC over 20th

century

1990s warmest decade and 1998 warmest year in last 1000 years in

Northern Hemisphere

Over last 50 years night-time minimum temperatures increased by about

0.2 ºC per decade

10% reduction in snow cover ice since late 1960s

Reduction of about two weeks in annual duration of lake and river ice

over 20th century

Widespread retreat of mountain glaciers during 20th century

Northern Hemisphere spring and summer sea-ice extent decreased by

10-15% since 1950s

40% decline in late summer Arctic sea-ice thickness in recent decades

Global-average sea level has increased by 10-20 cm during 20th

century

0.5-1% per decade increase in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude

precipitation during 20th century

2-4% increase in frequency of heavy precipitation events in Northern

Hemisphere mid- and high-latitudes over latter half of 20th century

The (very!) basic idea 

Sunlight shines on the earth

Some bounces off clouds (and other obstacles), but much of it 

reaches the ground

The earth warms and radiates the sun’s heat back into space…

But some of this heat is absorbed by “greenhouse gases” in the 

atmosphere…

And some of this captured heat radiates back to ground, warming 

it up more, etc.…

Without this insulating blanket, the earth would be much less 

hospitable to life

The moon has no greenhouse gases, andits surface temperatureis much lower thanthe Earth’s.

Too much of a greenhouse “blanket” is bad for life, too

The runaway greenhouse effect on Venus

Global temperature changes, 1900‐2010

1900 1920 1950 201020001970

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Global temperature changes, 1900‐2010

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Global temperature changes, 1900‐2010

1900 1920 1950 201020001970

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0.0 Observed temperature change

Global temperatures rose, 1900‐1940

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Then fell from 1940 to 1970…

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And global temperatures have been rising ever since…

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Trends in Atmospheric Concentrations and Anthropogenic Emissions of Carbon Dioxide

Carbon CycleThe Earth’s positive imbalance between emissions and absorption results in the 

continuing growth in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere since the

pre- industrial era

Global mean temperature changes

Projected concentrations of CO2 during the 21st century are two to four times the pre-industrial

level

CO2 Concentration in Ice Core Samples andProjections for Next 100 Years

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Years Before Present

Vostok RecordIPCC IS92a ScenarioLaw Dome RecordMauna Loa Record

Current(2001)

Projected(2100)

0100,000200,000300,000400,000(BP 1950)

Projected (2100)

Current (2001)

CO

2C

once

ntra

tion

(ppm

v)

Projected levels of atmospheric CO2 during the next 100 years would be higher than at anytime in the last 440,000 yrs

Projected Temperatures During the 21st Century Are Significantly Higher Than at Any Time During the Last

1000 Years

Per capita

By GDP

Co2 

concerns

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

Water:  Water availability, floods and droughtsNumber of people exposed to water stress

Ecosystems:  Species number and risk of extinctionCoastal wetlands, areaCoral bleaching Species range shifts and wildfire risk

Food: Productivity of cerealsLocal impacts on small holders

Coasts:  Number of people exposed to flooding each yearDamage from floods and stormsAverage rate of sea level rise

Health: Changed distribution of some disease vectorsNumber of people exposed to malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio‐respiratory, and other infectious diseases, Morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughts

Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of people, due to sea

level rise and heavy rainfall events, especially in Small Island States and low-lying

deltaic areas.

Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a sea level rise of one

meter - very difficult to adapt due to lack of adaptive capacity

projected

present

Food production needs to double to meet the needs of an additional 3 billion people in the next 30 years

Climate change is projected to decrease

agricultural productivity in the tropics

and sub-tropics for almost any amount

of warming

Wood fuel is the only source of

fuel for one third of the world’s

population

Wood demand will double in the

next 50 years

Forest management will become

more difficult due to an increase

in pests and fires

One third of the world’s

population is now subject to

water scarcity

Population facing water scarcity will more than

double over the next 30 years

Climate change

is projected to

decrease water

availability in

many arid- and

semi-arid

regions

Climate change will exacerbate the loss of

biodiversity

Estimated 10-15% of the world’s species could become extinct over the next 30 years

Biodiversity underlies all ecological goods and services

Food and Fiber Production

Provision of Clean and Sufficient Water

Maintenance of Biodiversity

Maintenance of Human Health

Storage and cycling of Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus

Agricultural Lands CoastalZones

ForestLands

FreshwaterSystems

Arid Lands & Grasslands

Climate change will affect the ability of ecological

systems to provide a range of essential ecological

goods and services

Developing countries are the most vulnerable to

climate change• Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone and a large share

of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors

• Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and

technological capacity and access to knowledge

• Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest

countries and the poorest persons within countries, exacerbating inequities in

health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.

• Net market sector effects are expected to be negative in most developing

countries

World Population 6,056,528,577

The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-

Changing Planet

The choices are ours…………We need to decide……….

Thankyou!!