Ed i to r ia l

Climate change – another hurdle for the older generation

They say that things never come in ones or twos

but always in threes and I suppose to have expected

anything different would have been wishful

thinking. Not in any particular order, most coun-

tries are having to deal with a worldwide recession

and financial crisis which has seriously impacted on

their ability to maintain services and people’s jobs,

the prospect of a pandaemic outbreak of H1N1

swine flu and its implication for their already hard

pressed health services as well as the longer term

issues associated with climate change. It is the latter

which may result in the most long term damage to

people’s way of life and maybe even our very

existence. It is not the remit of this editorial to

re-examine the evidence for climate change and

the arguments surrounding man’s influence, but

more to say that our present accepted way of life

cannot continue and changes have to be made.

Unfortunately, the present situation in which we

find ourselves does not lend itself to change, either

that we cannot afford the changes of lifestyle or

that many are not prepared to have them imposed

– it is somebody else’s problem, not mine mental-

ity. Unfortunately, nothing could be further from

the truth and the main groups that will be hardest

hit will be the most vulnerable, one of which is the

older generation. To place this into context, it

should be remembered that by 2030, there will be

over 1 billion people in the world aged more than

65 years.

In 2008, at an event hosted by The Stockholm

Environment Institute in association with Help the

Aged, the Policy Research Institute on Ageing and

Ethnicity (PRIAE) and Yorkshire and Humber

Assembly at the University of York, the impact of

climate change on older people was discussed. It

has been predicted that mean annual temperatures

in the UK could rise by 2.5–3.0�C over the next

100 years and this has the potential to lead to sig-

nificant disturbances in the pattern of the weather

in this country. This is a global phenomenon and

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) has stated that the rise in temperature now

exceeds the upper value of variability from histor-

ical sources. As a result there will be a greater

variability in weather patterns including an in-

creased frequency of winter storms, strong winds,

flooding and spikes in temperature. There is evi-

dence to suggest that with the older age groups

forming an increasing proportion of the population,

they will be more susceptible to these changes in

conditions. Some of this is seen in the vulnerability

and inability of older people to cope with conse-

quences of various floods (The Pitt Review, 2008),

not only in the UK but throughout the world. This

was seen in the UK in June 2007 when damage

was caused to 48 000 homes and many people

were forced out of their homes. By 2100, scientists

have stated that the number of people at risk from

floods in the UK could increase to 3.5 million but

the more startling fact is that nearly 600 million

people worldwide are in a similar position. In

August 2003, in excess of 2000 deaths of older

adults in England and Wales and nearly 15 000

mainly elderly people in France were caused by

temperatures rising to more than 40�C. The main

causes of these fatalities were respiratory and car-

diovascular disorders. It has also been suggested

that the rise in temperature expected in the UK

could significantly increase the number of food

poisoning cases and the number of people dying

from heat exposure. The World Health Organisa-

tion (WHO) produced a report which suggested

that changes in the climate were responsible for

approximately 6% of the malaria cases and 2.4% of

cases of diarrhoea (World Health Report, 2002).

Gary Haq et al (2008) reported that different age

cohorts have different carbon footprints with the

50 to 64-year olds having the highest at 13.5

tonnes of CO2/capita/year, followed by the 65 to

74-year olds at 12.1 tonnes. It is suggested that the

former group have a particularly high impact not

only because of their numbers but also because

they are significant users of personal transport and

other leisure activities. In fact, although they have

reduced emissions for food, drink and consum-

ables, they use their cars for more than two-thirds

of all their journeys. The 65–74 age group although

having a low income, tend not to be wasteful, but

had a similar level of car usage to the 50 to 64-year

olds. The most vulnerable group which could be

considered to be those 75 years and older have

nearly the lowest carbon footprint at 11.1 tonnes

but this hides some interesting facts. Most of the

reduction compared with other groups is due to a

lower use of transport, personal or public and as a

result of staying at home more, their domestic

energy use is 40% higher than the average for the

population. The research group state that these

older age groups are more vulnerable to climate

changes as these have a major impact on their way

of life and may force them to change habits and

Journal compilation � 2009 The Gerodontology Society and John Wiley & Sons A/S, Gerodontology 2009; 26 243–244 243

life-style to the detriment of their health and well

being. It would have been very informative if

separate data had been available for those over

85 years as this group of people is the fastest growing

section of the population in many countries.

Unfortunately, another issue that is tied inher-

ently to climate change is the need to examine the

potential causes of the problem. We are already

very familiar from the media and governments for

the need to reduce our carbon footprint either

individually or collectively. World energy con-

sumption has increased from 4.38 terrawatts to

5.74 terrawatts over the last 25 years and Tony

Hayward, the Chief Executive of British Petroleum

has stated that will rise by a further 45% by 2030

(Times, Opinion, 19.10.2009). The National Atmo-

spheric Emissions Inventory (2009) has found that

over a fifth of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions

come from transport and a third from the energy

industries. The Chief Executive has proposed that

we ought to make smaller more efficient diesel and

petrol engines combined with hybrid technologies

as well as an increased use of biofuels. However, it

is interesting to note that when various biofuel-

producing plants come on line they will use a

substantial proportion of wheat production, and

the UK could move from self-sufficiency to a net

importer to satisfy home food production. As far as

energy production is concerned there has been

moves towards the use of ‘clean’ energy sources

such as wind, wave, tide, solar and geothermal but

only around 1% of energy requirements is pro-

vided by these means. A dramatic increase in this

form of energy production will be expensive and

current estimates are recognised as being grossly

optimistic in the current economic climate. Other

sources such as nuclear and coal have their

different concerns, particularly regarding waste

storage of spent fuel rods in the case of nuclear

energy and carbon capture and storage for coal

which is still at an early stage of development.

Many advocate the use of natural gas with its lower

levels of carbon emissions but here again there are

issues with security of supply and storage. If one

really wants to paint a doomsday scenario, some

commentators have suggested that ‘the lights could

go out’ in the UK by 2017 if certain key decisions

are not made. Unfortunately, the economic climate

may make the implementation of those decisions

difficult to achieve in the time available.

Just to finish and maybe to cast some doubt

regarding global warming, it has been reported that

the warmest year was not 2009, 2008 or even 2007,

but 1998. So what is happening? Is the whole issue

being exaggerated? If one listens to the sceptics,

they state that this is all part of the natural cycle of

variation, but the Metrological Office predicts that

the warming phase will start again in 2010 and

following years will hotter than 1998.

Whatever happens, the older people in our

populations will be more vulnerable and will be

less able to deal with the impact on health and

wealth issues which will arise from the from the

credit crunch, the H1N1 virus and last but not least,

climate change.

‘The issue of climate change is one we ignore at our

peril.’

Barack Obama (2007)

James P. Newton

Editor

244 Journal compilation � 2009 The Gerodontology Society and John Wiley & Sons A/S, Gerodontology 2009; 26 243–244

244 Editorial