climate change and upper michigan’s forests: risks, opportunities, and ways to adapt

Maria Janowiak, Stephen Handler

Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science

USDA Forest Service

Climate Change Response Framework

www.forestadaptation.org

Climate Change and

Upper Michigan’s Forests:

Risks, Opportunities, and

Ways to Adapt

http://www.forestadaptation.org/

Considering Climate Change

More Information

• Examine a range of future climates

• Do not make recommendations

• Sources of information:

• Models

• Published research

• Local managers and experts

Download: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/45688 & /46393

Michigan Winters

Figure: SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, ORBIMAGE

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

Winter Weather


Weather + Time = Climate


Climate Change


Climate Change

Coldest Winters1. 1903-042. 1917-183. 1919-204. 1962-635. 1916-176. 1976-777. 1904-058. 1935-369. 1911-1210. 2013-14

Warmest Winters1. 2000-012. 1997-983. 2015-16*4. 2011-125. 1931-326. 1982-837. 2005-068. 1986-879. 1952-5310. 1998-99

What’s actually changed in the Northwoods?

Change in Annual Temperature, 1901-2011

www.climatewizard.org

Observed Temperature Changes

Change in Seasonal Mean Temperature, 1901-2011


Observed Temperature Changes


Observed Precipitation ChangesChange in Annual Precip, 1901-2011


Observed Precipitation ChangesChange in Seasonal Precip, 1901-2011

Saunders and Easley 2014

Observed Trends in Extreme Weather

Other Observed ChangesWarmer Water/Reduced Ice Cover Lake Superior water temperature increase of 4.5 °F (1979-2006)

71% reduction in Great Lakes ice cover (1973-2010)

Duration of lake ice cover reduced by 1-2 per decade

Altered Soil Temperature and Frost

12-24 fewer soil frost days since 1900

Altered freeze-thaw cycles

Longer Growing Seasons

Last spring freeze 5.6 days earlier

First autumn freeze 6.5 days later

Arrive 29 days earlier

Has leaves 11 more days

Assel 2009, Wang et al. 2011, Sinha et al. 2009, Kucharik et al. 2011

And Everything ElseClimate is not the complete story, but the story’s not

complete without it.

How could forests be affected?


Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons

Sources: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC_MI/

HighLow

Last Spring Freeze – End of Century



• Evidence of phenological shifts

• Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks

Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth

Melillo et al. 2014, Nelson Center 2014



• Evidence of phenological shifts

• Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks

Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth

Challenge: Potential risks from altered seasonality

• Early bud break/loss of cold hardening

• Frost damage during spring freezing

Melillo et al. 2014, Nelson Center 2014

Shorter Winter, Less Snow

Projected decreases in snow fall, cover, and depth

30-70% decreases in snowfall

Greatest snowfall decreases in December or January

Sources: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC_MI/

HighLow

Days with >10 inches snowpack – End of Century

Shorter Winter = Less Snow

Challenge: Decreased snowpack

• Increased soil frost and root damage in cold temps

• Warmer soil temperatures and altered processes

Rittenhouse and Rissman 2015

Shorter Winter = Less Snow, More Rain

Precipitation is projected to increase = more rain

Shorter Winter = Less Snow, More Rain

Precipitation is projected to increase = more rain

Challenge: Altered stream flow timing and amount

• Earlier spring peak flows

• Potential increases in flashiness and episodic high flows

• Potential declines in summer seasonal stream flow

Longer Growing Season + Altered Precip

Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress

Water loss from soils (evaporation)

Water loss from trees (transpiration)

Groundwater recharge

Runoff

Precipitation

Longer Growing Season + Altered Precip

Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress

Water loss from soils (evaporation)

Water loss from trees (transpiration)

Groundwater recharge

Runoff

Precipitation

Warmer temps increase water loss

Increased Carbon Dioxide

Image: www.science.howstuffworks.com

Increased Carbon DioxideOpportunity: Increased productivity from CO2

– Increased photosynthesis

– Increased water use efficiency

Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011

Increased Carbon Dioxide

Opportunity: Increased productivity*

– Increased photosynthesis

– Increased water use efficiency

*Effect likely limited:

– Limited sink strength

– Interactions with nitrogen

– Ozone damage

– Other reductions in productivity (e.g., moisture stress, disturbance)

Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011

Changes in Habitat Suitability

Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species

Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species


Habitat based on:

• Temperature

• Precipitation

• Elevation

• Latitude

• Soils

• Slope & Aspect

• Land use

• Competition

• Management


Habitat based on:

• Temperature

• Precipitation

• Elevation

• Latitude

• Soils

• Slope & Aspect

• Land use

• Competition

• Management

Climate Change Atlas:What happens to tree and bird habitat when climate changes?•134 Trees•147 Birds

Iverson et al. 2008; Atlas website: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/

Tree Species Habitat Shifts2070-2100 Low

2070-2100 High

Current DistributionImportance

Value

Low

High

Legend

all_spp_current

fia_802

1.000000

1.000001 - 4.000000

4.000001 - 6.000000

6.000001 - 9.000000

9.000001 - 11.000000

11.000001 - 14.000000

14.000001 - 23.000000

Quaking Aspen

Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/; Handler et al. 2014, Janowiak et al. 2014

Tree Species Habitat Shifts2070-2100 Low

2070-2100 High

White OakCurrent Distribution

Importance Value

Low

High

Legend

all_spp_current

fia_802

1.000000

1.000001 - 4.000000

4.000001 - 6.000000

6.000001 - 9.000000

9.000001 - 11.000000

11.000001 - 14.000000

14.000001 - 23.000000

Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/; Handler et al. 2014, Janowiak et al. 2014

Potential “Losers” Balsam fir Black spruce Jack pine Northern white-cedar

Paper birch Quaking aspen Tamarack White spruce

Mixed Results American basswood Bur oak Eastern hemlock

Red pine Sugar maple Yellow birch

Potential “Winners” American elm Ironwood Black oak Black walnut Eastern redcedar

Sassafras Scarlet oak Shagbark hickory Silver maple White oak

Tree Species Habitat Shifts

Handler et al. 2014, Janowiak et al. 2014


Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species

Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species

• Many common tree species are projected to have reduced suitability in the future

• Changes will occur slowly—not instant dieback

• Mature and established trees should fare better

• Immense lags to occupy habitats

• Critical factors: competition, management, & disturbance

Extreme Events

Challenge: Increased disturbance from extreme events

• Heavy precipitation

• Ice storms

• Heat waves/droughts

• Wind storms

• Hurricanes

• “Events” are not well modeled

VTRANS/VT ANR

NY DEC

Dan Turner,Cambridge Fire Dept.

Interactions: Wildfire

Fire may increase:• Warmer/drier summers• Increased stress or

mortality from less suitable conditions

• Shift toward fire-associated species like oaks and pines

Fire may not change:• Spring/early summer moisture• Current regeneration of more

mesic species• Land use and fragmentation• Fire suppression

Clark et al. 2014

Challenge: Increased wildfire potential

Interactions: Insects and Disease

Indirect: Stress from other impacts increases susceptibility

Direct:

• Pests migrating northward

• Decreased probability of cold lethal temperatures

• Accelerated lifecycles

Ayres and Lombardero 2000, Woods et al. 2005, Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al. 2009 Image: Frumhoff et al. 2007

HWA lethal temp: -20 to -30°F

Challenge: Increased forest insects, invasives, diseases

Interactions: Invasive Plants

Indirect: Stress or disturbance from other impacts can affect the potential for invasion or success

Direct:

• Expanded ranges under warmer conditions

• Increased competitiveness from ability of some plants to take advantage of elevated CO2

Dukes et al. 2009, Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org)

Challenge: Increased invasive & noxious plants

Effects on Forests

Generally Challenges

• Reduced growth: moisture stress

• Decline of northern/boreal species

• Disturbance from extreme events

• Wildfire potential

• Forests pests & disease

• Invasive species

Generally Opportunities

• Increased productivity: longer growing season

• Increased productivity: more CO2

• Increased habitat for some species

What would you add?

Vulnerability: Local Considerations

Research and assessments describe broad trends but local conditions make the difference.

Putting Info into Practice

??

Desired ConditionsNatural Forest

Dynamics

Wildlife Habitat

Past Management

History

Invasives Timber Sale Revenue

Disturbance:Past + Future

Recreation

Forest Health

And more!! Climate Change

Plan & Project Requirements

We can’t predict the future…

Don’t wait for a crystal ball

…but we know enough to take action

Instead: think about reducing risks

Adapting to Change

Swanston and Janowiak 2012; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543

Adaptation Demonstrations

www.forestadaptation.orgClick ‘Demonstration Projects’

Forest Cover

Gogebic County: Mosinee GEMS

• Gogebic County

• 1,100 acres

• Ruffed grouse, woodcock, deer, and snowshoe hare

www.forestadaptation.org/node/544

(grouse-enhanced management system)


Challenges• Increased risk of moisture

stress• Long-term decline of quaking

aspen• Trail & access issues

Opportunities

• Species like northern red oak may increase

• Near-term opportunity to regenerate aspen



• Increased risk of moisture stress

• Long-term decline of quaking aspen

• Trail & access issues

Opportunities

• Species like northern red oak may increase

• Near-term opportunity to regenerate aspen


Challenges

Adaptation Demonstrations

www.forestadaptation.orgClick ‘Demonstration Projects’

Forest Cover

220,000 acres of forest

Managed by Menominee

Tribal Enterprises for

Menominee Indian Tribe

Oak Wilt Treatment :

Harvest affected &

adjacent oaks

Pull stumps to sever root

connection

Harvest other species in

pocket

: www.forestadaptation.org/mte

Menominee Forest

http://www.forestadaptation.org/mte

Menominee Forest

Challenges Opportunities

• Reforesting the oak wilt sites provides an opportunity to plant assemblages that may be better able to respond to future stressors.

Oak wilt reduces the ability to maintain healthy, productive forests and meet other management goals

Oak wilt treatment results in heavily disturbed sites

Plant selection: Traditional Ecological Knowledge

Tree Species Notes Menominee Name Meaning Menominee Use

White Oak 60% of site Askeqtemaehnak Good for the eyes medicinal/food

Black Oak 30% of site Anipahkahkuehtek Black inside medicinal/food

Bur Oak 8% of site Mahkemenah maeqtekomen Biggest acorn medicinal/food

Swamp Oak 1% of site Maskik-askeqtemaeh Found in swamp medicinal/food

Post oak 1% of site

Additional Tree Species

Black Walnut Kentucky Bluegrass along side Paskanaweh Good tasting nut medicinal/food

American Elm Variety with higher resistance Keckiwahtek Elder Tree medicinal

Shingle Oak Hoping for shrublike effect

Black Cherry Earlier successional stage Awaehsehsaekahtek Little Bear tree medicinal

Northern White-cedar Medicine tree within stand Kesaehkahtek Medicine treemedicinal/ceremonial

Example plant list for some sites

Menominee Forest

Summer 2015 and 2016

• Tree planting

• Seeding of understory plants

Menominee Forest

If you want a single “answer” for how to respond to climate change, it’s

“It depends”

It depends on where you are working and what you’re trying to achieve.

Same actions–climate change

just makes them that

much more important

Small “tweaks” that improve effectiveness

New & different actions to consider, even some that may seem wild & crazy

*individual results will vary

Adaptation: The Real Story

www.ForestAdaptation.org

Stephen Handler: [email protected]

Maria Janowiak: [email protected]

Thank you!

http://www.forestadaptation.org/

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

climate change and upper michigan’s forests: risks, opportunities, and ways to adapt

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