OCHA Slide 1March 2008

Climate Change and Uganda

Presentationby

Jenty Kirsch-WoodOCHA’s Policy Development and Studies Branch

Slide 2March 2008 OCHA

Climate Change and UgandaSetting the stage

Climate change is happening and we are locked into further global warming up to at least 2050 (at least 1 degree)

Uganda is already feeling the consequences of climate change and is at high risk in the future

Slide 3March 2008 OCHA

Climate Change and UgandaClimate Change – Impacts of humanitarian concern

Increase frequency and intensity of weather-related hazard events (floods, storms, etc)

Increase likelihood of drought and desertification

Significant changes in the morbidity patterns of some diseases

Nine of out every ten disasters are now climate related. These trends are consistent with IPCC projections of climate change impacts

The poor will be disproportionably affected and are more likely to fall back on emergency humanitarian assistance in the face of climate-related disasters.

Between 2000 and 2004, 1/19 people living in the developing world was affected by a climate disaster. The comparable figure for OECD countries was 1 / 1,500 people: a risk differential of 79

Slide 4March 2008 OCHA

Climate Change and UgandaPotential for humanitarian disasters

Where risk from climate-related hazards coincide with areas of high human vulnerability there is potential for more humanitarian disasters driven by climate change

Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability

Capacity

Slide 5March 2008 OCHA

Climate Change and UgandaHazard events and impacts

Main concerns for Uganda in terms of weather related hazard events – historically and projected:

– Flooding and landslides caused by heavy rains

– Rise in temperature

– Dry spells / droughts

Potentially resulting in increased:

– Number of people affected by waterborne, respiratory as well as vector-borne

diseases

– Damage and destruction of infrastructure

– Water stress / loss of livelihoods / food insecurity (malnutrition)

Recent years’ erratic onset and cessation of rainfall season coupled with increasing frequency of droughts has made Uganda more vulnerable to climate change.

Slide 6March 2008 OCHA

Climate Change and UgandaHazard events and impacts - Rains

Uganda is a humanitarian risk hotspot for flooding (blue area)

– Projected increase in extreme

precipitation: East / North East and

in the South West along the lake.

Landslides (highlands) / Flooding (lowlands)

– Loss of lives

– Destruction and damage of houses,

infrastructure and crops

– Pollution of sources of drinking

water, with potential danger of

outbreaks of water-borne diseases

such as cholera and dysentery

Slide 7March 2008 OCHA

Climate Change and UgandaHazard events and impacts - Drought

Western, northern and north-eastern districts are already experiencing long droughts – these areas will likely be increasingly exposed to periods of drought.

Double threat in many areas of both drought and floods – significant concern for humanitarian actors

The majority of Uganda's agriculture is subsistence and rain-fed and, therefore, vulnerable to climate change

Heavy rains in periods will not off-set water requirements in dry periods because of higher evaporation and lack of irrigation.

Slide 8March 2008 OCHA

Climate Change and UgandaHazard events and impacts - Health

The highlands, which were malaria free, are now invaded by the disease. People living in highlands have not developed immunity for malaria and are therefore more susceptible to it.

In semi-arid areas, tick-borne diseases have become rampant because of higher temperatures and the tsetse fly belt has expanded.

Prolonged dry spells have resulted in outbreak of respiratory diseases

Increased food insecurity will to lead increased rates of malnutrition

Drying out of water resources will cause pollution of water supplies, creating problems especially in urban centres, where there will also be less water for sewerage.

Floods will cause an increase in waterborne diseases, such as cholera

High population and growth rates placing additional stress on health infrastructure

Slide 9March 2008 OCHA

Climate Change and UgandaHumanitarian risks – Migration / Conflict

The scarcity of water in parts of Uganda has in the past resulted in movements into neighbouring districts in search for pasture and water.

These movements have led to conflict and disruptions in agricultural production.

Climate change induced water scarcity in dry land areas could further exacerbatetensions.

Regional issues /cross border tensions

Slide 10March 2008 OCHA

Climate Change & PreparednessNext Steps In the immediate term, climate change will require a redoubling of existing

preparedness and risk reduction efforts. (Build on existing structures)

– Implementation of the NAPA

– Implementation of the HFA

Strengthen data collection and analysis

Factor in the unexpected, make sure that systems are can adapt to changes

Start now!

Slide 11March 2008 OCHA

Climate Change and Uganda

Thank you!