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Climate change and

Tourism

Themba Dube

Tourism Summit, Good Hope Chamber,

Parliament

17 -18 September 2013

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• Tourism in the global economy

• Tourism-climate interactions

• Implications of climate change and

climate policy for tourism

• Responding to the adaptation and

mitigation challenges

• Role of NMSs

• Conclusions and recommendations

Overview


WMO Expert Team on

Climate and Tourism

2003: Djerba Declaration on

Climate Change and Tourism

2007: DavosDeclaration on

Climate Change and

Tourism

2009: WCC-3 White Paper

on ‘Weather and Climate

Information for Tourism’

FAR SAR TAR AR4

2005:Kyoto

Protocol Enters into Force

2012: Aviation

Enters

EU - ETS 1999: IPCC Special Report

on Aviation and Climate Change

2020:WTTC &UNWTO ‘Aspirational’

GHG Emission Reduction Target of -

25% (2005 baseline)

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2005: WMO Expert Team on

Climate and Tourism

Established

2007/8: Technical Report

‘Climate Change and

Tourism: Responding to the

Global Challenges’

1993:

“… meteorologists and

tourist specialists rarely

communicate with

each other.”

Ken Smith (1993)


The Davos Declaration 2007

Climate Change and Tourism:

Responding to the Global Challenges

‘The scientific evidence is clear ‐

climate change must be

considered the greatest

challenge to sustainable tourism

in the 21st century.’


Recent records

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Recent records


Global Tourism Vulnerability

‘Hotspots’

Regional Knowledge Gaps Templ ref: PPT-ISO-colour.001 Doc Ref no: CLS-

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o geospatial (e.g. specific

local geographical

characteristics that make a

location vulnerable)

o resource (e.g. current level

of resources stress)

o access (e.g. extent of

service coverage)

o capacity (e.g. to identify,

manage and adapt)

o use (e.g. are natural

resources used efficiently)

o environmental (e.g.

environmental impacts of

climate change and

adaptation policies)

Climate Service Users

Tourists

Weather-climate information for leisure tourist decision making.

(Adapted from Scott, 2008)


Tourism-Climate Interactions

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Direct

Change in

Climate

Alter Environmental

Resources for Tourism Mitigation

Policy

alter recreation season length & quality

affect demand (push factor at source markets)

increased extreme events

tourism products (glaciers,

wildlife, coral reefs,

beaches, forests)

sustainability of operations

(water supply, insurance

costs)

disease and traveler health

increase travel

costs and affect

destination

choice

Affect Economic

Growth and

Security

adverse impact on

global economy and

tourism spending

political

destabilization

Implications of Climate Change

and Climate Policy for Tourism


10

http://books.google.ca/books?id=U-VmIrGGZgAC&printsec=frontcover&dq=stern+review&source=gbs_summary_s&cad=0

Climate Sensitivity of Tourism


11

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/gallery/2009/aug/22/?picture=352027196

http://serc.carleton.edu/images/research_education/katrina/sea_surface_tem.jpg

Changing Landscapes and

Impacts on Visitation

UpsalaGlacier (Argentina)

Glacier Bay National Park

(Alaska, USA)


13

Changing Landscapes …

Mount Kilimanjaro Glacier

Fynbos Biome and Isimangaliso (South

Africa)

Mount Kilimanjaro

(Tanzania)

?

?

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Potential effect of global climate change on SA

biomes


15 (Source: Midgley et al., 2008)


16

Beach Loss to Sea Level Rise

and Hurricanes

Cancun

Mexico

(2009) 2006

Beach

Extent

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Extreme Events and Insurability

‘Hurricane Katrina Blows Away ‘Big Easy’ Tourism’ 31 Aug 2005 - USA Today

US Gulf Coast & Caribbean Region

(Mid to Late-21st Century)

• Estimated premium increase 20-80%

• Increase deductibles (order of magnitude)

• Drop coverage in high risk areas

$235 million Hard Rock Casino


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http://serc.carleton.edu/images/research_education/katrina/sea_surface_tem.jpg

Responding to the

Mitigation Challenge

Tourism is Part

of the Problem

Rank Country

Annual CO2 emissions (in thousands of tonnes)

% of world

emissions

World 29,888,121 100%

1 China (ex.Macau, Hong

Kong) 7,031,916 23.5%

2 United States 5,461,014 18.27%

3 European Union (27) 4,177,817 13.98%

4 India 1,742,698 5.83%

5 Russia 1,708,653 5.72%

- Global Tourism sector 1,494,406 5.0%

6 Japan 1,208,163 4.04%

7 Germany 786,660 2.63%

8 Canada 544,091 1.82%

9 Iran 538,404 1.8%

10 United Kingdom 522,856 1.75%

11 South Korea 509,170 1.7%

12 Mexico 475,834 1.59%

13 Italy (including San

Marino) 445,119 1.49%

14 South Africa 435,878 1.46%

15 Saudi Arabia 433,557 1.45%

16 Indonesia 406,029 1.36%

17 Australia 399,219 1.34%

18 Brazil 393,220 1.32%

19 France (including

Monaco) 376,986 1.26%

20 Spain 329,286 1.1%

List of countries by 2008 emissions


19

GHG Emissions Growth,

1990–2002


20

Tourism’s Post-Kyoto

Mitigation Ambitions

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050

M t

on

CO

2

BAU Estimates from UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008

? -50% below2005

level

WTTC and UNWTO

targets

-25% below 2005 level

Business-as-usual

Emissions trajectory


21

“The immediate current threats are emerging as our major tourism markets seek to take urgent and decisive action to

curb their own contributions to climate change. In so doing these developed nations risk curtailing the

Caribbean region’s efforts to develop its societies and economies through its participation in the global tourism

industry”

Caribbean Hotel Association-Caribbean Tourism Organization - 2007

Impact of Climate Policy on

Tourist Arrivals to the Caribbean


22

Responding to the

Adaptation Challenge

All tourism businesses and destinations will need to adapt in order to minimize risks and capitalize on

an new opportunities in an sustainable way

Knowledge of the capacity of current adaptations to cope successfully with future climate change is

very limited

Relying on past experience is not adequate … adaptations can fail

Evidence that tourism operators are over-estimating adaptive

capacity

The sustainability of adaptations has not been examined


23

Potential Uses of Weather and

Climate Information for Adaptation


24

Figure 11.3

Statistically downscaled precipitation

change over Africa from different GCMs

(A1B scenario, Hewitson et al. 2006)


25

• Regional analyses Tropical storms in the Northern Indian Ocean

Tropical storms over SWIO


TourSum-CPT-2013-09-18-001.1

26

Temperature

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

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0.4

0.6

0.8

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1.2

19

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mp

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(d

eg

Cels

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)

Mean temperature anomaly for 28 selected South African climate stations from 1961 to 2008 (base period: 1961 to 1990)

-0.1

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0.2

0.3

0.4

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Station

Autumn Mean Temperature Trends (1960-2003)

A general warming is observed for

surface temperature during the recent

period from 1960 to the present (1991-

03: 0.09oC/dec; 1960-90: 0.11oC/dec).

Days and nights with high temperatures

have increased while days and nights

with low temperatures have decreased.

This also applies to the number of very

cold nights with temperatures below

0ºC, causing the number of nights per

year with frost to decrease over most of

South Africa.


27

(Source: Kruger and Shongwe, 2004

Precipitation ln line with global trends, no large areas in South Africa exist where there is a spatially coherent

positive or negative trend in annual rainfall for the last century, but the data indicate areas with more

extreme dry and wet seasons and increases in high daily precipitation amounts


28 (Source: Kruger and Shongwe, 2004

PROVINCIAL SCENARIOS (T2m)


29

•Climate scenarios for temperature and rainfall have been developed for all nine provinces

•Warming is projected everywhere

(Source: Shongwe, 2013)

PROVINCIAL SCENARIOS (Prcp)


30

•Total seasonal rainfall change shows large uncertainties and no clear sign over the Eastern Cape

(Source: Shongwe, 2013)

BEYOND THE BORDERS (1) – SADC

•Placeholder figure for the discussion on projected changes in extremes in Southern Africa


31

(Source: Jnl of Climate, 24)

BEYOND THE BORDERS (2) – EAST AFRICA

•Placeholder figure for the discussion on extremes in East Africa


32

(Source: Jnl of Climate, 24)

Conclusions and

Recommendations • accurate and geographically specific meteorological information for

tourism destinations (along coasts, nature/game reserves, mountains,

etc.) (+ DARE), to support:

• climate risk management and adaptation

• development and access to financial products (e.g. insurance,

weather derivatives) for improved risk management

• regionally and locally-specific climate change scenarios for long-term

tourism planning

• near-term climate predictions (e.g. decadal, multi-decadal) covering

the next 25-30 years (the most relevant to business investment and

government policy timeframes)

•Access to tourism data


33

Conclusions …

• fundamental, multidisciplinary research (providers, users,

intermediaries) into climate and tourism to understand:

• the importance of climate in decision-making contexts

• cross-cultural climate preferences for destination types

• the effect of weather on customer ‘satisfaction’ and future travel

choices

• the climate sensitivity of major tourism activities

• the economic and non-market societal value of climate information

for decision making by both tourists, and tourism operators.


34

Conclusions …

• demonstration in the tourism marketplace of validation of specialized

products developed for the tourism industry

• development (WMO/NMHSs/Tourism specialists/Universities) of

accepted standards for specialized climate products for the tourism

industry, to:

• ensure consistent and accurate communication of climate

information to travelers, and

•Facilitate objective destination comparisons and marketing claims

• strengthened and effective partnerships (governments, universities,

communities, the private sector) to identify and meet the needs for

climate information in the sector


35

Conclusions …

• evaluation of best practices in the communication of climate

information, particularly for specialized products and forecast

uncertainty, to the industry and to tourists

• capacity-building workshops to foster partnerships and interactions

between climate service providers and tourism user groups in various

regions (e.g. hotspots)

• training

•of service providers in the needs of the tourism sector

• of tourism professionals including the hospitality industry in how to

use climate information to manage/reduce risks and to increase

capability to adapt to climate change


36

“… meteorologists and tourism specialists rarely communicate with each other.” Ken Smith (1993: 389)


37

THANK YOU

Themba Lawrence Dube (PhD)

Senior Manager: Climate Service

South African Weather Service

442 Rigel Avenue South, Erasmusrand, Pretoria, 0181

P/Bag X097, Pretoria, 0001

[email protected]

Tel.: +27 12 367 6077

Fax: +27 12 367 6377

Weatherlines: 082 162, or *120*555*3#, or 083 123 0500

"Celebrating 150 years of organised meteorology in South Africa"


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