Climate Change andThe NW Power Supply

Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest

University of WashingtonApril 21, 2009

April 21, 2009 2

Outline NW Power and Conservation

Council CIG data used by the Council Assessing impacts to power and

fish Dealing with climate uncertainty The Northwest’s carbon footprint

April 21, 2009 3

NW Power and

Conservation

Council

April 21, 2009 4

NW Power and Conservation Council

• Created by Congress in 1980• Tasks

1. Power plan2. Fish and wildlife program3. Develop in a public forum

• Jurisdiction covers Oregon, Washington, Idaho and Montana

April 21, 2009 5

CIG Data used

by the Council

April 21, 2009 6

Global Climate Models

• Climate Impacts Group – University of Washington

• Up to 20 climate models• At least 2 GHG scenarios • Downscaled for the NW

Provide forecasts for: Temperature changes Altered river flows

April 21, 2009 7

CIG Forecasts for Changes to NW Temperature and

Precipitation

April 21, 2009 8

CIG Forecast Changes

• Runoff volume and river flow Volume not likely to change significantly Higher winter flows, lower summer flows

• Temperature More likely to increase than decrease Could be as much as 3 0F higher by 2040 Or 6 0F higher by 2080

April 21, 2009 9

Temperature Effects on Demand(Illustrative Only)

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April 21, 2009 10

Change in Natural Flows @ The Dalles

Higher Winter Flows

Lower Summer Flows

Earlier Peak

April 21, 2009 11

Assessing Impacts toPower and Fish

April 21, 2009 12

Council’s GenesysModel

• Monte Carlo analysis• Uncertainties include:

1. Water supply2. Electricity demand3. Resource forced outages4. Wind generation

• Monthly and hourly hydro simulation

April 21, 2009 13

Genesys Model

Assessments

• Reservoir elevations• Project outflows• Project/system

generation• Power system cost

April 21, 2009 14

Change in Regulated Flow @ The Dalles

Forecast for 2040

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Extreme Wet Average Extreme Dry

Illustrative Only

April 21, 2009 15

Summary of Impacts

Changes to:

Winter Summer

Flows Higher Lower

Demand Lower Higher

Impacts to:

Power Better Worse

Fish Neutral Worse

Revenue Higher Lower

April 21, 2009 16

Observations & Recommendations

Recognize that there will be no “bright line” indicating climate change

Link reservoir operations to streamflow forecasts

Must develop better forecasting methods for the Fall

April 21, 2009 17

Dealing with Climate Change Uncertainty

April 21, 2009 18

Council’s Portfolio

Model• Monte Carlo analysis• 20-year planning horizon• Multiple random variables• Calculates average cost and economic risk

of various resource plans• A “plan” is a specific set of new resources• About 1,400 plans are analyzed• Each plan is evaluated over 750 different

futures• Plots cost vs. economic risk relationship

April 21, 2009 19

Portfolio ModelUncertainties

• Electricity demand• Fuel prices• Hydroelectric generation• Electricity prices• Forced outage rates• Aluminum prices• Carbon dioxide tax• Wind resource production tax credit• Green tag value for wind resources

Background

April 21, 2009 20

Adding Climate Change as an Uncertainty is Difficult

1. Need to know the likelihood of occurrence for each GCM scenario

April 21, 2009 21

Illustration of Uncertainty in Climate Models

NaturalClimate

Variation

Each point represents the projected temperature and precipitation change for one climate model run

April 21, 2009 22

Draw from GCM Scenarios based on the Likelihood of

Occurrence

Likelihood of occurrence

April 21, 2009 23

Adding Climate Change as an Uncertainty is Difficult

1. Need to know the likelihood of occurrence for each GCM scenario

2. Also, for each year of each scenario:

• Adjusted streamflows (70 sets)• Adjusted demand (70 sets)• Modified flood control levels (70 sets)• Modified refill levels (70 sets)• Modified max drafting limits (70 sets)

April 21, 2009 24

The NW’s Carbon Footprint

April 21, 2009 25

Carbon Footprint for the Northwest

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PNW Rest of West U.S.

Pounds of CO2 Per kWh

April 21, 2009 26

CO2 Sources

United States

Commercial4%

Industrial18%

Residential6%

Transportation34%

Electric Power38%

Pacific Nortwest

Commercial4%

Industrial20%

Residential6%

Transportation47%

Electric Power23%

April 21, 2009 27

Over 88% of the NW’s power system CO2

emissions are from existing coal-fired plants.

Other

Existing coal

Existing gas

April 21, 2009 28

Methods to Reduce GHG Emissions

• Reduce electricity demand• Reduce operation of carbon

producing resources• Acquire non-carbon producing

resources• Sequester carbon emissions

April 21, 2009 29

GHG Reduction Policies

• Emissions Performance Standards • Carbon Cap & Trade• Emission Reduction Goals• Renewable Portfolio Standards • Tax Incentives and Credits• Carbon Tax

April 21, 2009 30

Emission Impacts of Various Actions

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30% lessconservationthan Council

target

All RPS + bannew coal

Lower SnakeRiver damremoval

No summer spill

Court orderedsummer spill

Effects on 2024 Western CO2 emissions

April 21, 2009 31

Observations• Existing renewable portfolio

standards and banning new coal plants will not hold CO2 emissions to 2005 levels

• Reducing NW CO2 emissions from power production to 1990 levels or below will require changes to existing coal plants

• Sixth power plan will assess the most cost effective means to reduce CO2