Climate Change and Social Conflict in Latin America and the Caribbean

Washington, August 29th, 2008

IPCC IPCC FourthFourth Assessment ReportAssessment Report

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – Technical Summary of the Working group II contribution, page 10

Climate Change in LAC, expected impacts:

• Changes in precipitation trends (High confidence)

• Andean inter-tropical glaciers likely to disappear over the next decades (high confidence).

• Continuous decline in natural land cover at very high rates (high confidence)

• Risk of significant species extinctions in many areas of tropical Latin America (high confidence).

• 50% of agricultural lands likely to be subjected to desertification and salinisation in some areas, by the 2050s (high confidence)

• Increase in the number of people experiencing water stress likely to be between 7 and 77 million by the 2020s (medium confidence).

• The expected increases in sea-level rise (SLR), weather and climatic variability and extremes are very likely to affect coastal areas (high confidence).

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – chapter 13: Rainfall and deforestation trends in LAC

IPCC IPCC FourthFourth Assessment Report Assessment Report

Climatic FactorsClimatic Factors NonNon--Climatic FactorsClimatic Factors

El Niño/La Niña - Southern Oscillation External Factors

Demographic Pressure(poverty, malnutrition, water,

sanitation, sewerage, health and education)

Over-exploitation of Natural Resources

(aquifers, fisheries, mining, agriculture, forests, tourism,

ports expansion)

Pollution (Heavy metals, industrial

chemicals, detergents, organic matter, agrochemicals)Natural Ecosystems

(Biodiversity Hotspots, ecological services, CO2 )

Agriculture(food security, bio-fuels)

Water Resources(irrigation, energy, human

consumption,)

Coastal(ports, cities, natural disasters)

Human Health(tropical , viral, skin, bacterial

diseases)

Vulnerability: A Function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive

capacity

(McCarthy et al, 2001)

Vulnerability in LACVulnerability in LAC

Tourism(infrastructure, ecotourism)

Coral Reefs

Coastal Wetlands

Tropical Glaciers

Rainforest

High Mountain

Climate Change

Areas of work: priority sectors – technology transfer – strategic alliances – adaptation measures – policy strengthening

IPCC 2007a

LAC LAC -- identification of vulnerable areasidentification of vulnerable areas

www.stormcenter.com

Climate Change Climate Change -- WaterWater“The current vulnerabilities observed in many regions of Latin American countries will be increased by the joint negative effect of growing demands due to an increasing population rate for water supply and irrigation, and the

expected drier conditions in many basins” IPCC – 2008

IPCC – 2008

The following are expected to be effected as outcomes of climate change:

• Precipitations (including extremes) and water vapour

• Snow and land ice • Sea level • Evapotranspiration• Soil moisture • Runoff and river discharge • Patterns of large-scale variability

Through the dynamic nature of the hydrological systems, climate change impacts on water are expected to translate into negative outcomes in the following systems and sectors:

• Ecosystems and biodiversity• Agriculture and food security, land use and

forestry• Human health• Water supply and sanitation• Settlements and infrastructure• Economy: insurance, tourism, industry,

transportation

Climate Change Climate Change -- FoodFood“Agriculture-based livelihood systems that are already vulnerable to food insecurity face immediate

risk of increased crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seeds and planting material, and loss of livestock” Wulf Killmann - FAO 2007

Ericksen, 2007- Conceptualizing food systems for global environmental change research

A food system is vulnerable when one or more of the four components of food security – food availability, food accessibility, food utilization and food system stability - is uncertain and insecure.

Concerns for food systems and food security*:

• CO2 fertilization effects;• Increase in global mean temperatures;• Gradual changes in precipitation (increase

in the frequency, duration and intensity of dry spells and droughts);

• Gradual changes in precipitation (changes in timing, location and amounts of rain and snowfall);

• Impacts of increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events;

• Impacts of greater weather variability

“Climate Change And Food Security: A Framework Document” FAO 2007

Climate Change Climate Change -- EnergyEnergy“Energy insecurity stems from the welfare impact of either the physical unavailability of energy,

or prices that are not competitive or overly volatile”. IEA 2007

Hydrological changes will directly affect the potential output of hydro-electric facilities – both those currently existing and possible future projects. Other energy infrastructure, such as power transmission lines, offshore drilling rigs and pipelines, may be vulnerable to damage from flooding and more intense storm events. (IPCC 2008)

Hydropower is the main electrical energysource for most countries in Latin America, and is vulnerable to large-scale andpersistent rainfall anomalies due to El Niño and La Niña

Expected further glacier retreat is projected toimpact the generation of hydro-electricity in countries such as Colombia and Peru

“Key World Energy Statistics” IEA 2007 “Energy Economic information system” OLADE 2007

Climate Change Climate Change -- HealthHealth“Climate change currently contributes to the global burden

of disease and premature deaths (Very High Confidence)” IPCC - 2007

IPCC 2007a

Human health, incorporating physical, social and psychological well-being, depends on an adequate supply of potable water and a safe environment. Human beings are exposed to climate change directly through weather patterns (more intense and frequent extreme events), and indirectly through changes in water, air, food quality and quantity, ecosystems, agriculture, livelihoods and infrastructure.

It has been estimated that the total excess costs for the management of three climate-related diseases (diarrheal disease, malnutrition and malaria) in 2030 would be between US$ $3,000 and $17,000 million in different climate change scenarios. (Ebi, 2007*)

The total investment needs for combating diarrheal disease would be $67 billion, malnutrition $2 billion, and malaria $36 to $50 billion in 2030. (s750 scenario). (Ebi, 2007*)

*“Health impacts of climate change” report to the UNFCCC Secretariat financial and technical support

Climate Change Climate Change -- TourismTourism

Impact Implications for tourismWarmer temperatures • Altered seasonality, heat stress for tourists, cooling costs,

changes in plant-wildlife-insect populations and distribution, infectious disease ranges

Decreasing snow cover and shrinking glaciers

• Lack of snow in winter sport destinations, increased snow- making costs, shorter winter sports seasons, aesthetics of landscape reduced

Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme storms

• Risk for tourism facilities, increased insurance costs/loss of insurability, business interruption costs

Reduced precipitation and increased evaporation in some regions

• Water shortages, competition over water between tourism and other sectors, desertification, increased wildfire s threatening infrastructure and affecting demand

Increased frequency of heavyprecipitation in some regions

• Flooding damage to historic architectural and cultural assets, damage to tourism infrastructure, altered seasonality

Sea level rise • Coastal erosion, loss of beach area, higher costs to protect and maintain waterfronts

Sea surface temperatures rise

• Increased coral bleaching and marine resource and aesthetics degradation in dive and snorkel destinations

Changes in terrestrial and marine biodiversity

• Loss of natural attractions and species from destinations, higher risk of diseases in tropical-subtropical countries

More frequent and larger forest fires

• Loss of natural attractions; increase of flooding risk; damage to tourism infrastructure

Soil changes (e.g., moisture levels, erosion and acidity)

• Loss of archaeological assets and other natural resources, with impacts on destination attractions

“Climate defines the length and quality of multi-billion dollar tourism seasons and plays a major role in destination choice and tourist spending” UNWTO - 2008

IPCC 2007a

StrategyStrategy

Demographic Pressure(poverty, malnutrition, water,

sanitation, sewerage, health and education)

Over-exploitation of Natural Resources

(aquifers, fisheries, mining, agriculture, forests, tourism, ports

expansion)

Pollution (Heavy metals, industrial chemicals,

detergents, organic matter, agrochemicals)

Vulnerability

SECCI SECCI –– PillarPillar 4: Adaptation4: Adaptation

Climate Change

Social Conflict

Water Supply

Food supply

Energy Supply

Health

Tourism

IDB

SECCI CountrySectorsProjects

MAINSTREAMING

Vulnerability Assessments

Adaptation pilots

Institutional capacity

Public Outreach

Climate Change sensing, monitoring, early warning

Preventive risk management

National/Sub- national/regional strategyClimate resilient and low

carbon economy

(+)

(-)

SECTORS EXTERNAL FACTORS

SECCI SECCI –– Mexico Mexico Federal and State level climate change measures IDB’s technical and financial tools

Federal Level

State Level

ME-T1089, Support for Sustainable Projects Feasibility Studies, NAFIN

ME-T1110, Support to Energy Efficiency Projects Fund, BANCOMEXT

ME-T1088, Support to Mexican Carbon Fund , FOMECAR

ME-T1082, Support the Development of the National Stern Report

ME-T1064, Support to Climatic Change National Strategy PECC

ME-T1116, T1119… Support to the preparation of the Climate Change Action Plan PEACCs (5 states)

NFP climate models. MOU with NCAR and other research centers for the development of climate scenarios to help in the development of vulnerability and adaptive capacity studies

Other sources. International funding for

adaptation and mitigation pilots

Support to the design and implementation of FEFP, and the institutional strengthening of NAFIN in EE

Assistance to CDM project promoters, CDM methodology development and

creation of validation entities

Economic quantification of the impacts of climate change to

the Mexican economy

Foster commercial bank participation

in EE projectsPECC Support

Team Mainstreaming

adaptation and mitigation in sectors

Institutional strengthening of SEMARNAT, INE, Secretaria

Hacienda Federal Climate Change National Strategy, PECC

State Climate Change National Strategy, PEACCs (phase I, 5 states)

Tabasco, Yucatán, Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, Chiapas

Sector Policies

Implementation of the selected mitigation projects

Design of final pilots

Implementation

MITIGATION

Information analysis and processing

GHG inventory

C/B analysis

Adaptation pilots

ADAPTATION

Scenario selection

Vulnerability Studies

Identification

C/B Selection

Pre-designPilot Measures

Adaptation Strategy

SECCI SECCI –– ColombiaColombiaNational and Sub-national level integrated climate change program

DNP

IDB Climate ChangeIntegrated Program

CONPES -BioFuels

Restructuring Climate Change Agenda

MAVDT Adaptation and Mitigation Programs

Political Agencies

Ideam UPME

Colciencia

FINDETER

Federación Nacionalde Biocombustibles

Implemeting Agencies

DNPHacienda

MAVDT

Min. Minas y Energía

Climate Change National and Sub-national plans

Proexport

Cerrejón

CONPES

Min. Transporte

Min. AgriculturaEcopetrol

Bancolombia

Private Sector

•MAVDT: Ministerio de ambiente, vivienda y desarrollo territorial

SECCI (4 pillars)

SECCI SECCI –– NCARNCAR

SECCI is in the process of signing a technical cooperation agreement with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR. Projects in the pipeline include:

I. MEXICO: Assessment of vulnerabilities to and anticipated impacts of climate change over the Mexican Grijalva-Usumacinta watershed using a coupled hydro-meteorological modeling tool.

Modeling of local climate over the Gulf of Mexico (particularly southern Gulf states) Development of a coupled hydro-meteorological model for the Grijalva-Usumacinta watershedAssessment of vulnerabilities to and anticipated impacts of climate change for the Grijalva-Usumacinta watershed and its implications to dependent communities and ecosystems

NCAR – Washington DC May 2008

SECCI SECCI –– NCARNCAR

II. PERU: The IDB is supporting the local government of Lambayeque through the development of a technical cooperation that will help in the preparation of feasibility studies for an irrigation-hydro energy project.

Generation of data from downscaled regional models that could be fed into the development of an Integrated Watersheds Management Plan for Olmos including four main watersheds (e.g. Cascajal, Olmos, Motupe, La Leche).Assessment of expected impacts of climate change to the regional climate and the hydrological cycle with emphasis on the frequency and intensity of natural disasters and other climate events such as El Niño.Development of future vulnerability to

climate change of local communities and the planned investment.

NCAR – Washington DC May 2008

Embalse Limon

Tunel transan

dino CH2Conmutador

Túnel de

aducció n CH1

Túnel de

aducció nRiego

37,000 ha en Olmos

LAMBAYEQUE

CAJAMARCA

Embals e olmos

PIURA

TC, IDB Document, T-PE1026

THANK YOU

WWW.IADB.org/SECCI

CP20965T