climate change and runoff in western wisconsin
DESCRIPTION
Climate Change and Runoff in Western Wisconsin. John Nowinski, Department of Geological Sciences. Project Question:. How will stream discharge in western Wisconsin be influenced by future climate perturbations ? Best case vs. Worst case scenarios Precip itation vs. Evapotranspiration - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND RUNOFF IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN
John Nowinski, Department of Geological Sciences
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Project Question: How will stream discharge in
western Wisconsin be influenced by future climate perturbations? Best case vs. Worst case scenarios Precipitation vs. Evapotranspiration How can a GIS help?
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Study Area
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Study Area
Drainage Area: 5757 km2
Stream Length: 4480 km
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Basic Methodology Discharge=Precipitation-
Evapotranspiration Long Term Assumes ∆Storage=0
Model Current Discharge Accurately Use mild and severe climate projections to
predict future conditions
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Precip (+ Temp)
~Uniform Distribution
Monthly data from1 station for simplicity
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Evapotranspiration: empirical approach
(Malmstrom, 1969), (Pike, 1964)
PET and W in mm/month,
ea* in kPa,
Ta in C
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Discharge Calculation qcell =Flow Accumulation*(W-ET)*Cell
Area NHD FAC grid Raster Calculator
Comparisons for 7 USGS NWIS Sites
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Model Accuracy
Observed vs. Modeled Discharge
0 10 20 30 40 50 600
10
20
30
40
50
60
f(x) = 1.10911509001652 x + 0.0315089651476796R² = 0.99929512008154
Observed vs. Modeled Discharge
Observed Discharge (m3/s)
Mod
eled
dis
char
ge (m
3/s)
Model slightly overestimates observed discharge
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Low Emissions (HadCM3+PCM)
Winter Precip+5%
Summer Precip+15%
Winter Temp+4 C
Summer Temp+4 C
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High Emissions (HadCM3+PCM)
Winter Precip-5%
Summer Precip+15%
Winter Temp+8 C
Summer Temp+7 C
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Evapotranspiration: empirical approach
(Malmstrom, 1969), (Pike, 1964)
PET and W in mm/month,
ea* in kPa,
Ta in C
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Conclusion Discharge decrease for both low
emission and high emission scenarios (ET beats precip) High scenario is much more severe
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Limitations and Future Work Empirical Equations have limited
accuracy Model overestimates q
Monthly Discharge Calculations Need for dams?
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Questions?
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Thanks!