climate change and public health: the role of cdc michael a. mcgeehin, ph.d., m.s.p.h. director,...
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TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change and Public Health:The Role of CDC
Michael A. McGeehin, Ph.D., M.S.P.H.Director, Environmental Hazards and Health Effects,
National Center for Environmental Health, CDC
February 17, 2008
Agenda
• Is climate change real?• Is climate change a health issue?• Is there a public health role?• What is the role of CDC?• A few parting thoughts.
IPCC 2007 Reports
Potential Health Effects of Climate Change
Climate change:
• Temperature rise
• Sea level rise
• Hydrologic extremes
HEATHEAT Heat stress, cardiovascular failure
SEVERE WEATHERSEVERE WEATHER Injuries, fatalities
AIR POLLUTIONAIR POLLUTION Asthma, cardiovascular disease
ALLERGIESALLERGIES Resp allergies, poison ivy
VECTOR-BORNE DISEASESVECTOR-BORNE DISEASES Malaria, dengue, hantavirus, encephalitis, Rift Valley fever
WATER-BORNE DISEASESWATER-BORNE DISEASES Cholera, cryptosporidiosis, campylobacter, leptospirosis
WATER AND FOOD SUPPLYWATER AND FOOD SUPPLY Malnutrition, diarrhea, harmful algal blooms
MENTAL HEALTHMENTAL HEALTH Anxiety, post-traumatic stress, depression, despair
ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEESREFUGEES Forced migration, civil
conflict
The direct health effects of heat
European heat wave, 2003
Vandentorren et al. Mortality in 13 French cities during the August 2003 heat wave. Am J Public Health 2004; 94(9):1518-20.
UK 2,091
Italy 3,134
France 14,802
Portugal 1,854
Spain 4,151
Switzerland
975
Netherlands
1,400-2,200
Germany 1,410
TOTAL29,817-30,617
CONFIRMED MORTALITY
Haines et al. Climate change and human health: Impacts, vulnerability and public health. Public Health 2006;120:585-96.
TIME LINE (FRANCE)
Severe weather events
Hurricane intensity (Saffir-Simpson scale categories 1 to 5), global, 1970-2004, including number of storms by category (A) and proportion of storms in each category (B). Bold curve in (A) is the maximum global hurricane wind speed (in m/sec). Dashed lines show the 1970–2004 average numbers in each category. Source: Webster et al., Science 2005;309:1844-46.
Climate change and severe weather events, 1972-2004
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.20
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
O3
(ppm
)
Ozone Season in Atlanta
Unhealthful
Source: M. Chang, Ph.D., Georgia Tech
Allergies
Ragweed• Genus Ambrosia
• ↑ CO2 and temperature → ↑ pollen counts, longer growing season
Source: Ziska et al., J Allerg Clin Immunol 2003;111:290-95;Graphic: Wall Street Journal, 3 May 2007.
Poison Ivy• Toxicodendron radicans
• ↑ CO2 leads to– ↑ photosynthesis– ↑ water use efficiency– ↑ growth– ↑ biomass– More allergenic urushiol
• Greater CO2 stimulation than most other woody species
Source: Mohan et al. PNAS 2006;103:9086-89.
The predictable…
…and the surprising
Potential Health Effects of Climate Change
Climate change:
• Temperature rise
• Sea level rise
• Hydrologic extremes
HEATHEAT Heat stress, cardiovascular failure
SEVERE WEATHERSEVERE WEATHER Injuries, fatalities
AIR POLLUTIONAIR POLLUTION Asthma, cardiovascular disease
ALLERGIESALLERGIES Resp allergies, poison ivy
VECTOR-BORNE DISEASESVECTOR-BORNE DISEASES Malaria, dengue, hantavirus, encephalitis, Rift Valley fever
WATER-BORNE DISEASESWATER-BORNE DISEASES Cholera, cryptosporidiosis, campylobacter, leptospirosis
WATER AND FOOD SUPPLYWATER AND FOOD SUPPLY Malnutrition, diarrhea, harmful algal blooms
MENTAL HEALTHMENTAL HEALTH Anxiety, post-traumatic stress, depression, despair
ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEESREFUGEES Forced migration, civil
conflict
Public Health Action on Climate ChangeTrack diseases
and trends related to
climate change
Communicate effectively on
climate change
Heat wave and severe storm response plans;
focus on the most vulnerable
Public health
workforce prepared to
respond
Investigate infectious water-, food-, and vector-
borne disease outbreaks
Partnerships with private sector, civic groups, NGOs, faith
community, etc.
Study and predict links between climate change
and health
The role of CDC
• Surveillance and data collection
• Outbreak investigations
• Technical assistance– Forecasting and modeling– Preparedness planning
• Research
• Education
• Training and capacity-building
A few parting thoughts: Four Cs
• Conceptualizing• Communicating• Complexity• Co-benefits
“Mitigation and Adaptation”
“Preparedness and Prevention”
or
Care for the individual
patient Care for the communityCare for
future generations
THE CLINICAL APPROACH THE PUBLIC
HEALTH APPROACH
THE LEGACY APPROACH
• Intergenerational responsibility•Stewardship
Effective health communication
Despair
Anxiety
The ScreamEdvard Munch does Climate Change
“Think of the verbs associated with environmentalism and conservation: ‘stop,’ ‘restrict,’ ‘reverse,’ prevent,’ ‘regulate,’ and ‘constrain.’ All of them direct our thinking to stopping the bad, not creating the good.”
The need for positive, aspirational messages.
““I have a nightmare…”I have a nightmare…”
““I have a dream…”I have a dream…”
“The challenge of climate change is so massive, so global, and so complex that it can only be overcome if we look beyond the issue categories of the past and embrace a grand new vision for the future.”
The need for bold, cross-cutting thinking.
Complexity
Reality (simplified)
Looking over the horizon
Source: IPCC
Population growthPopulation growth
“Hubbert’s peak”
Source: Hubbert, 1956
Peak petroleum
Limits on landLimits on land
Limits on water
Promoting co-benefits
Climate Change Synergies
Heat wave plans including “buddy systems”
↑ social capital
↓ Vehicular travel↓ car crashes; clean air; ↑ physical activity
↑ Fuel efficiency ↓ air pollution
Locally grown foodFresh food; ↓ pesticide exposure; local business
Energy-efficient buildings ↓ operating costs
Alternative energy sources Business opportunities
Co-benefits: Trees
• Carbon sequestration • Cooler temperatures• Reduced energy demand• Clean water• Clean air• Protection from sunlight• Venues for physical activity• Noise reduction• Mental health• Spiritual fulfillment
Co-benefits: Food and nutrition
Suddenly, Bob realizes that he’s “part of the problem.”
Physical activity
Air pollution
And by the way…
Infrastructure costs Social capital
CO2 emission
s
Depression
Injuries
Osteoporosis
Co-benefits: Transportation
Summary
• Climate change is real.
• Climate change is a health issue.
• There a public health role.
• There is an important role for CDC.
Thank you!