Climate Change and Potential Impacts on Tourism. Evidence from the Zimbabwean Side of the Victoria Falls World

Heritage Site

29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction Tuesday, 5 June 2018, Denver,

Colorado

Dube, K & Nhamo,G

Vaal University of Technology , University of South Africa

South Africa

Background and Introduction

Tourism is one of the major economic sectors globally (WTTC, 2018)

It is fastest growing economic sectors

Most important in growing economies such as Zimbabwe (Dube & Nhamo ,2018)

• Employs vulnerable members of the community

• Major Forex earner

• Assist in fighting poverty, inequality and unemployment

Under serious threat from climate change

Climate change set to alter attractions and travel patterns across the world (Fang et al., 2018)

Tourism and climate change

Dual relationship between tourism

and climate change

Sub Saharan Africa particularly vulnerable

Fair amount of research in the

global North

Vast knowledge gaps exists in global

South

IPCC called for more research

Scott et al (2016) called for research in SSA on tourism

and climate change

Hoodoorn and Fitchettgen (2016),

also called for similar research

Research Question?

Is there evidence of climate change in

Victoria Falls Zimbabwe?

How will climate change affect tourism sector in Victoria Falls

Zimbabwe?

Objectives

Track evidence of climate change in the context of climate change and climate variability in

Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe

Highlight potential implications of climate change on the

tourism sector in Victoria Falls Zimbabwe

Materials and Methods

Case study Pragmatism philosophy as recommended by Kono,

(2015)

A mixed method approach (Creswell & Clark, 2009)

Tools

• Secondary Data

• Primary Data : Surveys and Interviews

• Remote Sensing

Analysis

• Question Pro Text Analytics

• Mann Kendall Trend Test 2018

• Microsoft Excel Analysis ToolPak

• GIS Archview 10.3

Research Design

Pragmatism approach was used (Creswell, 2017)

Case Study

in-depth study in natural setting

Mixed Method approach

40 year meteorological data was analysed 1976-2016

Online Survey

369 tourists from 43 countries and 7 continents

Analysis:

Content Analysis

Mann Kendall Trend Analysis

Microsoft Excel Analysis Tool Pack

Geographic Location of Victoria Falls

• largest curtain of falling water in the world

• Receives more than 500 00 tourists a year

• Part of the Kaza Tourists Region

• Africa’s adventure capital

• Central to tourism economy for South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Kenya, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe and Zambia

• Important birding site

Study Area

Victoria Falls is a World Heritage Site

7th World Wonder

It is a Ramsar Site Located in the Zambezi Valley

Basin

Models predict increased

temperature and reduced rainfall

Extreme weather events

Rich area in biodiversity

including the Big 5

Important economic region

for SADC

Rainfall pattern 1976-2016• No significant changes in

average rainfall amount over the period in question

• Extreme swings in rainfall patterns

• Prolonged drought periods

• An increase in drought occurrence

• Change in rainfall season

• A delay of one month

• Rainfall season shorter by a month

• 10 years out of the past 16 years were drought years

Findings and Discussions

y = 0.0374x - 45.094p=0.000

27.5

28

28.5

29

29.5

30

30.5

31

31.5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020T

em

pe

ratu

re (°C

)

YearVictoria Falls

o 1.4 degree temperature increase was reported over the period in question /0.35 degree Celsius per decade

o Three summer months had outstanding temperature particularly October

October witnessed largest temperature increase

y = 0.0794x - 124.36p=0.0001

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Max

imu

m t

em

pe

ratu

re °

C

Year(a) Victoria Falls

October

October Linear (October)

Zambezi Discharge pattern over the past 40yrs

Implications on Tourism

Affects the aviation sector

load shedding at departure

Helicopter takes longer to climb increased fuel

cost and increased carbon footprint

Tourists comfort

Disturbed sleep

Dehydration

Affects wildlife that are sensitive to high

temperatures such as elephants

Evidence of decrease in wild dog population as

a result of global warming

Increase animal water uptake

Increased evaporation rates

Drying of water halls

Increased water demand

Increased energy costs for cooling

Increased carbon footprint

Increased water bills

Potential Impact of Climate change on tourist arrivals to Victoria Falls

Would you come to Victoria Falls if it dries up?

Would you visit the Victoria Falls to see it before it dries up?

Adaptation and mitigation

Green aviation

Retrofitting

Fleet replacement new fleet up to 20%

fuel efficient

Carbon tax

Green fuels

Green buildings

Use of clean energy

Retrofits make buildings more fuel

efficient

Streamline climate change into

building design &construction

Encompass green building codes into

construction

Green transport

Electric cars

Fuel efficient behaviour practice

Use of green fuels

Encourage tourist to practice responsible

tourism

Travel lite

Purchase local products

Offset your carbon footprint

Publish and update climate data

Fund climate change research in

developing countries

Mentor climate change researchers

Conclusion and Recommendations

Based on findings there is ample evidence to suggest that global warming is taking place

Need to continuously monitor the impact of climate change on tourism across the SADC region

Need for more focused research on World Heritage Sites across Africa to assess the impact of climate change

Reference • Creswell, J. W., & Clark, V. L. (2009). Designing and conducting mixed methods research

(3rd ed.). Thousand Oaks: Sage publications.

• Dube, K., & Nhamo, G. (2018). Climate change and potential impacts on tourism: evidence from the Zimbabwean side of the Victoria Falls. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-17.

• Fang, Y., Yin, J., & Wu, B. (2018). Climate change and tourism: a scientometric analysis using CiteSpace. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 26(1), 108-126.

• Hoogendoorn, G., & Fitchett, J. M. (2016). Tourism and climate change: A review of threats and adaptation strategies for Africa. Current Issues in Tourism, 21(7), 742-759.

• Kono, T. (2015). A Comment on Andrew C. Papanicolaou’s “BEYOND EDDINGTON’S ARGUMENT”: Pragmatism in Scientific Knowledge and Perception. Integrative Psychological and Behavioral Science, 49(1), 9-18.

• Scott, D., Hall, C. M., & Gössling, S. (2016b). A review of the IPCC Fifth Assessment and implications for tourism sector climate resilience and decarbonization. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 24(1), 8-30.

• WTTC. (2018). TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMIC IMPACT 2018 WORLD. London: WTTC. Retrieved from https://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/economic-impact-research/regions-2018/world2018.pdf