Climate change and fisheries:WorldFish Center research and policy

priorities

Edward AllisonAllison Perry

Marie-Caroline Badjeck

Physical• Temperature

• Sea level

• pH

• Salinity

• Currents

• Nutrients

• Oxygen

• Ice cover

• Turbulence & mixing

• Wind speed & direction

• Storm frequency & intensity

• Evaporation

• Precipitation

• Runoff

Ecological• Species distributions

• Timing of reproduction, migration, abundance

• Physiology

• Recruitment

• Behaviour

• Sex ratios

• Calcification rates

• Upwelling timing & latitude

• Habitat loss

• Coral bleaching frequency & severity

• Disease

• Algal blooms

Fisheries• Productivity

• Distribution

• Species availability

• Timing• Days at sea

• Accidents

• Loss of harbours, homes

• Damage to productive assets

• Increased insurance costs

• Livelihood diversification

• Ability to plan seasonal livelihood activities

Climate-induced changes in fisheries systems

WorldFish climate change research

1. Diagnosing and mapping climate change vulnerability in fishery and aquaculture-dependent communities and regions

2. Understanding adaptive responses and strategies in fishery and aquaculture-dependent systems

3. Reducing vulnerability by building the capacity to respond and adapt

Vulnerability to climate change

Vulnerability

• the degree to which a system is susceptible to climate change, and is unable to cope with the negative effects of climate change

IPCC 2001, 2007

Assessing global economic vulnerability

Where will climate change impacts on fisheries have the greatest social and economic consequences?

Global climate predictions

Physical processes

Ecological processes

Fisheries dynamics

Assessing global economic vulnerability

EXPOSURENature and degree to which countries

are exposed to predicted climate

change

SENSITIVITYDegree to which

economies & people are likely to be

affected by fishery-related changes

POTENTIAL IMPACTSAll impacts that may occur without taking

into account planned adaptation

ADAPTIVE CAPACITYAbilities and resources to cope with

climate-related changes

VULNERABILITY

Vulnerability assessment data

Exposure• 2050 surface temperatures (HadCM3 model, 2 scenarios)

Sensitivity (Fisheries dependency – marine and inland)• Landings and contribution of fisheries to employment,

exports and dietary protein (FAO, World Bank)

Adaptive capacity• Human development indices (health, education,

governance, and economy size)

Vulnerability• 132 nations• Robust to different methods of weighting and combination

Greatest climate change exposure

ModerateHighNo data

LowVery low

• Northern parts of Europe, Asia, the Americas

Strongest dependence on fisheries

ModerateHighNo data

LowVery low

• Asia, Africa, South America

Lowest adaptive capacity

ModerateHighNo data

LowVery low

• Africa, South Asia

Greatest vulnerability

ModerateHighNo data

LowVery low

• Africa, Asia, north-western South America, Russia, Ukraine• 2/3 of most vulnerable are Least Developed Countries

Allison et al. (2009)

Highly vulnerable regions

Africa• 2/3 of most vulnerable countries• Very low adaptive capacity• High nutritional dependence• Marine and inland production closely related to climatic

variation

Asia• High fisheries dependence• Heavily exploited marine ecosystems (e.g. coral reefs)• Major river fisheries highly vulnerable to climate

change

South America• High exposure• Climate-sensitive upwelling fisheries

Global marine fisheries vulnerability

QUEST-Fish

• Coastal ocean physical-ecological dynamics• Primary production

• Fish production• Global food and fishmeal markets• Socio-economic vulnerability (WFC)

• Vulnerability assessments:• Global• Regional (Southeast Asia, West Africa)

• Non-climatic drivers of change:• Population, trade, economic, and policy scenarios

Threatened coral reefs

Ω aragonite at CO2 = 550 ppm

Reef loss: threats to people

• Reef ecosystem goods and services• Food, income, employment, coastal protection, building materials,

tourism, exports

• Poverty and reef-dependent regions• 2/3 of coral reef nations are developing countries• 1/4 of these are Least Developed Countries

• Small island states• High population density, limited freshwater resources, sensitive

economies

Vulnerability of reef-dependent regions

Coral Triangle• >120 million people dependent on marine resources for food

and livelihoods

• Climate change adaptation in the Coral Triangle• Social vulnerability assessments:

• National-scale (6 countries)• Finer-scale :

Indonesia

Philippines

Solomon Islands

Assessing reef-related vulnerability

EXPOSURENature and degree to which reefs are

exposed to predicted climate

change (e.g. bleaching)

SENSITIVITYDegree to which

economies & people are likely to be

affected by climate-related changes on

reefs

POTENTIAL IMPACTSAll impacts that may occur without taking

into account planned adaptation

ADAPTIVE CAPACITYAbilities and resources to cope with

climate-related changes

VULNERABILITY

Sensitivity: Reef dependence

People more reef-dependent where reefs represent greater:

1. Share of economic activity• Contribution to individual/household income• Contribution to community/regional/national economy

2. Source of employment• Number/proportion of people with reef-dependent livelihoods• Ranking of reef-related livelihood activities

3. Source of nutrients• Proportion of dietary protein from reef-associated sources• Quantity of reef-associated food consumed

Adaptive capacity

Human development indicators• Economy (poverty, inequality, debts)• Health (life expectancy, child mortality)• Education (literacy, school enrolment)• Governance (e.g. stability, effectiveness,

corruption)

Context-specific indicators• Governance (MPAs, LMMAs)• Alternative natural resources (other

fisheries, agriculture, freshwater)• Infrastructure (e.g. roads)• Isolation (e.g. distance from urban centres)• Remittances

WorldFish climate change research

1. Diagnosing climate change vulnerability in fishery and aquaculture-dependent communities and regions

2. Understanding adaptive responses and strategies in fishery and aquaculture-dependent systems

3. Reducing vulnerability by building the capacity to respond and adapt

WorldFish climate change research• Integrated protected area co-management – supporting

environmental governance, climate change mitigation and adaptation (Bangladesh)

• Strengthening management and enhancing community resilience to climate change (Lake Chilwa Basin, Malawi)

• Poverty alleviation and mangrove conservation: Carbon offsets as payments for mangrove ecosystem services (Solomon Islands)

• Adapting farming systems and aquaculture production systems to climate variability and change (Bangladesh, Vietnam)

WorldFish climate change research

• Understanding impacts of climate change in the Nile delta (Egypt)

• Food security implications (crops)• Breeding of salt-tolerant fish strains

• Projecting future water supply and demand (Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia)

• Building resilience through community-based adaptive management

• Integrating sustainable small-scale aquaculture into small-holder farms

WorldFish climate change research

1. Diagnosing climate change vulnerability in fishery and aquaculture-dependent communities and regions

2. Understanding adaptive responses and strategies in fishery and aquaculture-dependent systems

3. Reducing vulnerability by building the capacity to respond and adapt

Reducing vulnerability by building the capacity to respond and adapt

1. Lobbying for recognition of fishery and aquaculture sector vulnerabilities in global and regional climate change policy processes (e.g. UNFCC COP 15, Copenhagen, December 2009)

2. Facilitating the inclusion of the fishery sector in national plans of adaptation (NAPA) in WorldFish programme and partner countries

3. Engaging with partners to test and refine community and household-level adaptive processes

4. Link fishery sector actors at different levels with funding for adaptation and mitigation schemes