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Climate Change andDisaster Risk

Silvia LlosaProgramme OfficerUNISDR secretariat

Brussels, 2009

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Outline• Increasing risk• Linking DRR and CCA• Climate change negotiations• IPCC Special Report• UNISDR initiatives• Your initiatives

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Number of People Killed(Income Class/Disaster Type) (1975-2000) World Summary

27,010(1.36%)

87,414(4.41%)

520,418(26.25%)

1,347,504(67.98%)

0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0

High Income

Upper Middle Income

Lower Middle Income

Low Income

Inco

me

Cla

ss

N u mbe r of Pe ople Kille d('0 0 0 s)Drought Ea rt hqua ke Epi de m i c F l ood S l i de V ol ca no Wi nd s t orm Ot he rs

Low incomeLower-middle

incomeUpper-middle

incomeHigh income

CC impacts: more risk superimposed over increasing-risk pattern…and increasing inequality

Source: EM-DAT, OFDA/CRED, Brussels, world data 1900-2004:

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Climate change impacts

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007 identifies most vulnerable to CC impacts:

• Sub-saharan Africa – drought, floods, food insecurity

• Asian river deltas – drought, floods, GLOFs

• Small island developing states – sea-level rise, storm surge, drought

• Polar regions• (….and the poor in every country)

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5Retreat of Yanamarey Glacier

(Cordillera Blanca- height 4786 msnm.)

1982 1987

1997 2005

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6May 10, 2005Gurschen Glacier, Switzerland

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Linking disaster risk reduction with climate change adaptation offers a win-win opportunity

– Climate system is fundamental to both issues: 75% of all disasters are originated by weather & climate extremes

– DRR and CCA strategies both are aimed at enhancing sustainability, resilient societies and human security

– Similar sectoral focus, complexities & challenges, rely on same type of measures and policies

– DRR offers opportunities for bottom-up strategies for adaptation to current climate variability and climate extremes

– DRR can promote early adaptation to CC– DRR offers a way to address some of the main obstacles

(economic, political, social, technological, and institutional) to develop total potential for adaptation

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International Climate Change Processes

UNFCCCUnited Nations Framework Convention on

Climate ChangeSigned 1992, in force 1994, “common but

differentiated responsibilities” principlemitigation and adaptation

CDM: CleanDevelopmentMechanism

Joint Implemen-

tation

EmissionsTrading

KYOTO PROTOCOLSigned 1997, took effect 2005

Creates 3 mechanisms for mitigation

IPCC3 Working Groups: •Science•Mitigation•Adaptation

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International Climate Change Processes

UNFCCCConference of the Parties = COP

Kyoto Protocol meets as COP/MOP

IPCC• Fourth assessment report 2007• Fifth assessment report prep• Special report “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Adaptation”Out 2011Promoted by UNISDR and Norway

Decision1/CP.10

Subsidiary bodies: SBSTA, SBI, Adhocworking group on long term co-operativeaction (AWGLCA), AWGKP

Nairobi WorkProgramme

Bali ActionPlan

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The Bali Action Plan

“Disaster reduction strategies and means to address loss and damage associated with climate change impacts in developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change”

The inclusion of disaster risk reduction reflects:• Recognition that climate change adaptation should benefit from

experience in reducing disaster risk• Opportunity to build synergies: e.g., disseminate existing tools, scale-

up successful risk reduction efforts• A shift in the climate negotiations to integrate the agendas on

mitigation, adaptation, technology transfer and funding

• Adopted by Governments at UNFCCC/COP-13, Bali, December 2007 • Roadmap towards a new international climate change agreement post-

2012 (Kyoto Protocol)

• Disaster risk reduction as part of enhanced action on climate change adaptation. Calls for:

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11Road to Copenhagen

National action

by ISDR partners

UNFCCC LCA

Bangkok28 Sept-

9 Oct

UNFCCC LCA/SBs

Bonn1-12 June

ISDR Global PlatformGeneva

16-19 June

Supportingdelegations

w/ DRR experts

Advocacy innational

policy fora onDRR and CC

Advocacy with and through

interagency mechanisms

Guidance notes,technical reports anddocumenting lessons

Documenting national

experience

UNFCCC LCA informal

Bonn10-14 August

UNFCCC LCA

Barcelona2-6 Nov

COP-151-12Dec

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IPCC: Understanding the problem

2500+ scientists : human influence on climate greenhouse gases (GHG) accumulated in atmosphere since industrialization (1867) from burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Projected:

• Temperature increase up to 6.4ºC• Sea-level rise from 50 to 95 cm.• ENSO more frequent and intense• Increase in extreme events: drought, storms, floods• Current is warmest period in 10,000 years and probably last 650,000

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IPCC Climate Scenarios

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IPCC Special Report

• Proposed by UNISDR and Norway 2008• Scoping meeting hosted by Norway 2009• Agreed unanimously by IPCC in April 2009• Report “Managing the Risk of Extreme Events and

Disasters to Advance Adaptation” to be completed mid-2011

• 9 chapters including 1 on case studies

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IPCC Special Report--Outline1. Climate change: new dimensions in disaster risk, exposure,

vulnerability, and resilienceRisk reduction, risk management, risk transfer; Coping vs. adapting; Extreme events vs. extreme impacts

2. Determinants of risks: exposure and vulnerabilityVulnerability profiles; Coping and adaptive capacities; risk identification, risk accumulation, and the nature of disasters

3. Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on natural physical environmentWeather and climate events related to disasters; extremes and impacts: changing landscape; causes behind changes; long-term changes

4. Changes in impacts of climate extremes: human systems and ecosystemsRole of extremes in natural and socioeconomic systems; impacts and relation to hazards; system exposure and vulnerability; sectoral vulnerability; costs.

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IPCC Special Report--Outline

5. Managing the risks from climate extremes at the local levelCommunity coping, migration; community-based DRM; gender, age, wealth, and entitlements; social transfers, microfinance; risk transfers; data as input; costs of managing extremes’ risks

6. Managing the risks from climate extremes at the national levelPractice, methods and tools; planning and policies: institutions, legislation, and finance; the links between national and local scales; costs

7. Managing the risks: international level and integration across scalesPolicy frameworks, humanitarian institutions; international law and finance; technology cooperation • risk transfer •perspective on links between local, national, and global; costs

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IPCC Special Report--Outline

8. Toward a sustainable and resilient futureDRR, adaptation, development planning; �term coping and long�term adaptation; interaction with GHG mitigation; funding options; options for managing long-term risk

9. Case studiesVulnerable regions and types of settlement; experience with extremes and specific DRR strategies…

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UNISDR support of IPCC Report• Participation of developing country experts as

authors• Access to relevant DRR data and info

– Coordinate ISDR Partners’ literature searches and reviews by topic

– Contract tech organizations to build thematic bibliographies

– Support completion and publication and peer-review of papers in key topics

– Support the participation of staff members as authors

– Disseminate and promote use of final Report

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UNISDR support to negotiations and national implementation

•Support for adaptation planning and implementation•Knowledge sharing: climate-risk info and know-how•Developing partnerships and mobilizing resources

Examples• Participation of DRR advisors in national UNFCCC delegations, advocacy on negotiations text• Highest level advocacy: UNSG, GP, parliamentarians• DRR and CCA practitioners joint exercises• Guidance notes on sector-specific adaptation• Regional help desks for CCA-DRR strategy & funding• Subregional assessments of risk info and capacities• Pilot integrated national plans for CCA and DRR

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What you can do for DRR-CCA integration--1

• Provide literature for Special Report assessment: see www.preventionweb.net

• Nominate and support experts for IPCC 5th Assessment Report & submit literature

• Generate and “translate” climate risk information and engage with users to ensure it can be applied

• Review domestic policies for DRR and CCA and encourage dialogue, joint programming

• Report climate change activities in Hyogo Framework implementation report & HFA Monitor

• Strengthen DRR national platforms with institutions working in climate change

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What you can do for DRR-CCA integration— 2• Ensure climate negotiators include DRR in negotiations text

– Meet your counterpart; call often; share progress in DRR; review texts together

• Review policies for bi-lateral funding for DRR and adaptation to ensure harmonization

• Support developing countries (and economies in transition) in:– Developing CCA-DRR-development plans (per

sector)– Implementing joint programming– Develop capacities jointly– Assessing existing and longer term risk in

integrated fashion

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Ban Ki Moon, UN SG, 29 September 2008

"We should not take longer… if we are slow to adapt to climate change, we risk making disasters even more catastrophic than they already are. We should build on theHFA and DRR awareness to protect vulnerable populations against climate change."