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Trevor Murdock

26 October 2018BC Building Envelope CouncilVancouver, BC

Robert Lepage

Climate Change and Building Science

Nutrition FactsServing Size 1 presentation

Amount Per Serving

Slides 39 Minutes 45

% Daily Value*

Maps 6 300%

Plots 9 450%

Photos 9 50%

Cartoons 0 0%

Humour 5% ?

* Percent Daily Values are based on a diet of one AGM

Taking future climate into account is

necessary

possible

December 2nd 2005

• 6°C snowing in ______

• 19°C sunny in ______

Climate: long term statistics of weather

Weather: conditions at a specific location & time

Victoria Montreal

• Weather: conditions at a specific location and time– December 2nd 2005

• 6°C snowing in Victoria

• 19°C sunny in Montreal

• Climate: long term statistics of weather– 1971-2000 average December

Climate: Long Term Statistics of Weather

Temperature Anomaly °C

*

Climate varies by location & with time

*

Temperature Anomaly °C

Climate Varies by Location and with Time

Temperature Anomaly °C

*

Climate Varies by Location and with Time

Taking future climate into account is

necessary

possible

a) Albert Einstein

b) Mark Twain

c) Winston Churchill

d) George Bernard Shaw

e) Niels Bohr

f) Will Rogers

g) Enrico Fermi

h) Yogi Berra

i) Dan Quayle

j) Woody Allen

k) Confucius

“Prediction is hard, especially about the future”

Historical Average BC temperature

PastMinor reductions (RCP8.5)Paris commitments (RCP4.5)Paris goal (RCP2.6)

Future Warming in BC

Days above 25°C

Increase Hot Days

Wettest day of the year

More Frequent and Intense Wet Days

Taking future climate into account is

necessary

possible

Energy Modelling – Simple Adjustment

0

10

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Current 2020s 2050s 2080s

EUI

(kW

h/m

2-y

r)

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Current 2020s 2050s 2080s

EUI

(kW

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Heating Cooling

Hig

h-R

ise

Step

2St

ep 4

Energy

Source: UBC (Campus and Community Planning) with RDH

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Current 2020s 2050s 2080s

EUI

(kW

hr/

m2)

Step 2 Step 3 Step 4

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Current 2020s 2050s 2080s

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(kW

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Current 2020s 2050s 2080s

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(kW

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Heating Cooling

Hig

h-R

ise

Low

-Ris

e

Step

2St

ep 4

Energy

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Past Past(updated)

2020s 2050s 2080s

Un

me

t Co

oli

ng

Ho

urs

Steo 2 Step 3 Step 4

0

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Past 2020s 2050s 2080s

EUI

(kW

hr/

m2)

Step 2 Step 3 Step 4

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Current 2020s 2050s 2080s

EUI

(kW

h/m

2-y

r)

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Current 2020s 2050s 2080s

EUI

(kW

h/m

2-y

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Heating Cooling

Hig

h-R

ise

Low

-Ris

e

Step

2St

ep 4

Energy

Unmet Cooling Hours

• Make use of available climate information

• Consider a range of future projections

• Practice cross-disciplinary engagement

• Iteration, iteration, iteration

Best Practices

• “Climate is not static”

• “Past and ongoing… greenhouse gas emissions are expected to alter most climatic regimes in the future”

• “… buildings will need to be designed, maintained, and operated to adequately withstand ever changing climate loads.”

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Agree or disagree?Where are these quotes from?

Taking future climate into account is

necessary

possible

BC Building Code 2012

• “Climate is not static”

• “Past and ongoing… greenhouse gas emissions are expected to alter most climatic regimes in the future”

• “… buildings will need to be designed, maintained, and operated to adequately withstand ever changing climate loads.”

• “The analysis generally assumes that the past climate will be representative of the future climate”

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• Climate change costs in Canada: from $5 billion per year to $21 to $43 billion by 2050

• National Roundtable on the Environment and Economy, 2011

• 2012 global damages: ~$1.6 trillion per year (1.6% global GDP)

• 400,000 deaths annually

• By 2030: >$2.5 trillion per year

Source: Climate Vulnerability Monitor: A Guide to the Cold Calculus of A Hot Planet (2012)

Costs of Climate Change

• Standard of Care

• Engineers have a higher standard of care

• EGBC Position Statement on Climate Change:

• Legal and Professional risks:

• Legal Requirements

“Professionals can only be accountable for establishing that their work addresses concerns that could reasonably be identified given the state of knowledge at the time of their work”

“EGBC registrants… are

expected to keep themselves

informed about the changing

climate, and consider potential

impacts on their professional

activities”

→Professional liability and

negligence

→Ethical responsibility

→Were damages reasonably

foreseeable?

→Relying on existing regulatory

standard is not sufficient.

Standard of Care

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45Pr

ob

abili

ty o

f Occ

urr

ence

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Load

Loads ResistanceϕF θR

Limit States

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45Pr

ob

abili

ty o

f Occ

urr

ence

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Load

Loads Resistance

Limit States with Climate Change

0.1 – 0.2 % 4 – 13 %

Temperature Distribution

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

May Jun Jul Aug

Tem

per

atu

re (

°C)

RCP 2.5 (2000) Avg Temp (7 day avg)

0

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May Jun Jul Aug

Tem

per

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re (

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RCP 8.5 (2020) Avg Temp (7 day avg)

0

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May Jun Jul Aug

Tem

per

atu

re (

°C)

RCP 8.5 (2080) Avg Temp (7 day avg)

0

5

10

15

20

25

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35

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May Jun Jul Aug

Tem

per

atu

re (

°C)

Daily Temperature Ranges

Vancouver: 1953-1995

Vancouver: 2020 Projection (RCP8.5)

Vancouver: 2080 Projection (RCP8.5)

Business as usual (3.5 °C)2+ °C Target1.5°C Target

Current Design Parameters

Expanded Design Parameters

Building Code Parameters

Sub-optimal Design Parameters

Climate Design Parameters

Taking future climate into account is

necessary

possible

Infrastructure Components

Climate and Related Events

Component

dry

er

sum

me

rs,

wat

er s

hort

ages

cont

amin

ated

w

ater

hea

t w

aves

heav

y ra

infa

ll,

flas

h fl

oods

stro

ng w

inds

, st

orm

s

wa

rme

r sh

ort

er

win

ter

air p

ollu

tion

(O

zon

e,

smo

ke

from

for

est

fire

s)

Fire

s (l

ocal

)

Ligh

tnin

g st

rike

s

cold

sna

p, ic

e st

orm

s

hea

vy s

now

fa

ll/h

ail

high

er/l

ower

h

um

idit

y

windows n n y y y n y n n n y y

wall and roof insulation n n n y y n n n n y n y

siding/cladding/flashing n n n y y n n y n y y n

membrane/vapour-air barrier n n n y y n n y y y y y

entry/doors n n n y y n y y n y y y

roof - membrane n n y y y n n y y y y y

PIEVC Protocol- Concepts

Seve

rity

of O

ccu

rre

nce

7 7 14 21 28 35 42 49

6 6 12 18 24 30 36 42

5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

4 4 8 12 16 20 24 28

3 3 6 9 12 15 18 21

2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Probability of Occurrence

PIEVC SCORES

Score

Probability Severity

Method A Method E

0Negligible

Not Applicable

Negligible

Not Applicable

1Highly Unlikely

Improbable

Very Low

Some Measurable

Change

2 Remotely Possible

Low

Slight Loss of

Serviceability

3Possible

Occasional

Moderate Loss of

Serviceability

4Somewhat Likely

Normal

Major Loss of

Serviceability

5Likely

Frequent

Loss of Capacity

Some Loss of

Function

6Probably

Often

Major

Loss of Function

7

Highly Probable

Approaching

Certainty

Extreme

Loss of Asset

Risk Matrix

2

Infrastructure Components

Heat waves

Cooling Dry Bulb exceeds existing CSA/BCBC/ASHRAE Design of 26.8C

Y/N P S RRationale For

Severity Score

M MECHANICALHA

Score

Consultant

ScoreDecision

Critical Air Systems

12 O/A intakes N - -

13 Fans Y 7 3.8 3 3 21

14 Cooling Coils Y 7 5 5 5 35

15 Heating Coils N - -

16 Humidification N - -

17 Air Distribution Y 7 4 4 4 28

Risk Evaluation Approach

Increasing Mitigation

Increasing A

daptatio

n

Cohen and Waddell, 2008/ Harford, 2018

Maladaptation Low Carbon Resilience

Unsustainability

Code Minimum

New Vulnerabilities

High AFUE

Existing Bldgs

PH w/

Fossil Fuel

PH

Net Zero

Net Carbon

N-C + Future Climate

All Electric All Electric

Clean Grid

PIEVC

Adaptation and Mitigation

Taking future climate into account is

necessary

possible

Online adaptation tools webinarhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxj-3gPkDW4

• Plan2Adapt

• Regional Analysis Tool

• ClimateBC / ClimateWNA / HectaresBC / BC Climate Explorer

• PCIC data portals

– BC station data

– High-resolution PRISM climatology

– Statistically downscaled climate scenarios

– VIC hydrological model output (gridded)

– Station hydrological model output

• Seasonal maps

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PCIC* climate tools for BC

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Primary*audiences

Ease of use Flexibility Type of output

Plan2Adapt Planners Decision-makers Consultants

Easy Low Summary tableMapsPossible impacts

Regional Analysis Tool Impacts researchersEngineers

Difficult →Medium

High MapsPlotsRegional analysis

PCIC data portals Impacts researchersHydrologistsConsultants

Medium Medium Data

Seasonal maps Managers Easy Low Maps

ClimateBCClimateWNAHectaresBCDatabasin

ForestersEcologistsImpacts researchers

Medium High DataMaps

BC Climate Explorer Foresters, general Easy Medium MapsPlots

PCIC* climate tools for BC

• Adaptation guidance

• PICS adaptation in buildings infographic

• Infrastructure Canada Climate Lens

• BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure Technical Circular

• EGBC guidance document

• Climate / engineering language primer

• National guidebook on climate scenarios

More resources

• Educational/background

• CBC podcast mini series

• Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS): Climate Insights 101

• What if climate change is real? – Katherine Hayhoe Ted Talk

• Climate Projections Reports released by regional districts

• Climate Projections for the Cowichan Valley Regional District

• Climate Projections for the Capital Region

• Climate Projections for Metro Vancouver

• Climate Projections for Whistler

• City of Vancouver Climate Impacts Summary

And even more resources

2015 https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/2015_Year_in_Review-Final.pdf

2016 https://www.pacificclimate.org/news-and-events/news/2016/bc-track-set-new-temperature-record-2016 and https://www.pacificclimate.org/news-and-events/news/2017/climate-variability-hot-cold-winter-%E2%80%9916-%E2%80%9817

2017 https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/PCIC_Update_Mar_2018.pdf

2015 / 2016 /2017 weather events, seasons

Acknowledgements

• The PIEVC Protocol is copywritten under Engineers Canada and was shared with RDH by David Lapp, FEC, P.Eng.

• The case study project team consists of Rivercourt Engineering Ltd., Simon Fraser University, Prism Engineering Ltd., and McElhanney Consulting Services Ltd.

→Thank you

tmurdock@uvic.ca

www.PacificClimate.org

rlepage@rdh.com

www.rdh.com

www.buildingsciencelabs.com

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Questions?