climate change and agriculture: the case of the guadalquivir river basin in spain · 2019. 6....

1

Climate change and agriculture: the case

of the Guadalquivir River Basin in Spain

Lahti, June 18

Cod Nombre Masa Provincia link

AND213 Manantial de la Fuente del RíoES050MSBT0000535

00Córdoba

http://info.igme.es/ielig/LIGInfo.aspx?codigo=AND2

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AND232 Manantial Fuente de Zagrilla AltaES050MSBT0000535

00Córdoba


32

AND240 Manantial del ManzanilES050MSBT0000540

00Granada


40

AND322 Nacimiento y cabecera del Río CastrilES050MSBT0000502

00Granada


22

AND387 Nocles de DoñanaES050MSBT0000551

03Huelva


87

AND411 Manantial de las Termas del JabalcuzES050MSBT0000516

00Jaén


11

AND415 Manantiales de Rio FríoES050MSBT0000566

00Jaén


15

AND427 Falla de la Fuente de las PilasES050MSBT0000566

00Jaén


27

AND442 Nacimiento de ArbunielES050MSBT0000528

00Jaén


42

AND443 Manantial de Mata-BegidES050MSBT0000521

00Jaén


43

AND444 Manantial de la FuenmayorES050MSBT0000521

00Jaén


44

AND614 Manantiales de El GargantónES050MSBT0000521

00Jaén


14

AND646 Nacimientos del río DarroES050MSBT0000531

00Granada


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AND647 Fuentes del río GuardalES050MSBT0000502

00Granada


47

AND653Cascada, cañón y manantiales de

Prado Negro

ES050MSBT0000530

00Granada


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La cuenca del Guadalquivir

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Lahti, June 18

From the higher peaks of Iberia (3.481 m) in Sierra

Nevada National Park

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Lahti, June 18

To sea level, at the wetlands of Doñana National Park

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Lahti, June 18

Irrigated area: 850.000 ha. Use of water: 3.361 hm3 (85 % of total)

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Lahti, June 18

- This landscape can only be supported with an extensiveinfrastructure system : there are more than 50 bigreservoirs, and almost a thousand kilometres of mainirrigation channels. - The reservoirs system is based in a hyperregulationstrategy: they are designed for storing the runoff of verywet years and make it last until the next one.- This strategy, that requires a deep knowledge of thehydrology and a expert management of dams has proved to be very successful: the last year with a heavy shortage was 2008, despite not having a really wet yearsince 2013

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- This state owned main dam

system is supported by a complex

one of local «on the property»

irrigation ponds, built and

maintained by irrigators, adding

flexibility and easing the

management.

- Aditionally, more than 50 %

irrigated surface uses drips, and

gravity fed irrigation is restricted

to small and traditional farms.

This modern agriculture needs big investments. As a result,

requires less water but an stronger guarantee: relies very

heavily on avaibility and predictabilty of water storage.

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Lahti, June 18

- Guadalquivir RB strides both

aride and temperate zones:

border areas suffer more with

small global changes

- Runoff was stable until 1980.

From then on, the pattern

seems drier and more erratic

- But there has not been a

further decrease.

The thirty-years moving average is used in order to detect

and highlight these long term changes and trends



00Córdoba


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00Jaén


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00Granada


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Prado Negro

ES050MSBT0000530

00Granada


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Changes on runoff 30 years moving average 1970-2016

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

8134 hm3 (258 m3/s)

-21 %

9344 hm3 (296 m3/s)

7306 hm3 (232 m3/s)

Lahti, June 18



00Córdoba


13


00Córdoba


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00Granada


40


00Granada


22


03Huelva


87


00Jaén


11


00Jaén


15


00Jaén


27


00Jaén


42


00Jaén


43


00Jaén


44


00Jaén


14


00Granada


46


00Granada


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Prado Negro

ES050MSBT0000530

00Granada


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13,5

14

14,5

15

15,5

16

16,5

17

17,5

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

15,9 ºC

+ 0,6 ºC

16,3 ºC

15,6 ºC

Lahti, June 18

Changes in temperature



00Córdoba


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00Granada


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00Granada


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03Huelva


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Granada


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00Granada


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Prado Negro

ES050MSBT0000530

00Granada


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15

15,2

15,4

15,6

15,8

16

16,2

16,4

16,6

19

71

19

76

19

81

19

86

19

91

19

96

20

01

20

06

20

11

20

16

20

21

20

26

20

31

20

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T media 30 años SIMPA

Lahti, June 18

Changes in temperature 30 years M.A. 1970-2016



00Córdoba


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00Córdoba


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00Granada


40


00Granada


22


03Huelva


87


00Jaén


11


00Jaén


15


00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Granada


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00Granada


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Prado Negro

ES050MSBT0000530

00Granada


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15

15,2

15,4

15,6

15,8

16

16,2

16,4

16,6

19

71

19

76

19

81

19

86

19

91

19

96

20

01

20

06

20

11

20

16

20

21

20

26

20

31

20

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T media 30 años SIMPA T media 30 años simulada

+ 0,9 ºC(en 40 años)

Lahti, June 18

Changes in temperature 30 years M.A. 1970-2016 + present trend



00Córdoba


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00Córdoba


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00Granada


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00Granada


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03Huelva


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Granada


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Prado Negro

ES050MSBT0000530

00Granada


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Changes in variability in 30 average: «how much the years diverge from average»

0%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

4%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

CV aportacion CV temperatura

Lahti, June 18



00Córdoba


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00Granada


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03Huelva


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Granada


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00Granada


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Prado Negro

ES050MSBT0000530

00Granada


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Conclusions

• Since late XX century climate in Guadalquivir RB is drier, hotter and more variable.

• No trend is evident in runoff since then. Variability and temperatures are less clear and may be increasing.

• This is a challenge for the agriculture, both in Spain and Guadalquivir RB.

• In some way, Guadalquivir, with its hyperegulationmanagement strategy is «preadapted» to this new and more extreme scenario.

• Higher temperature will imply a bigger water demand. The current one should not be increased in order topreserve the guarantee.



00Córdoba


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00Córdoba


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00Granada


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00Granada


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03Huelva


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Jaén


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00Granada


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00Granada


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Prado Negro

ES050MSBT0000530

00Granada


53¡¡Gracias por su atención!!

Thank you

for your

attention

Lahti, June 18

climate change and agriculture: the case of the guadalquivir river basin in spain · 2019. 6....

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