climate change and agriculture: ensuring food production...
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change and Agriculture: ensuring food production is not
threatened.
EPA Public Lecture Series on Climate Change -Dublin - 15 March 2011
Alexandre Meybeck, FAO
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A triple Challenge
• More food, in quantity, quality and diversity, everywhere for everyone
• Adapt to Climate Change
• Contribute to mitigate Climate Change
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Food and Nutrition Security
• Availability
• Accessibility
• Utilisation
• Stability
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Towards 9 billion in 2050
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Meat consumption in developing countries
FAO 2006
Poultry
Pork
OvineBovine
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Biofuels
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A1B: 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999, boreal winter (IPPCC 2007)
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(summer) growing season temperature Current versus model projections
Source: Naylor R. and Battisti D. 2008 (pers comm)
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Mean changes in precipitation 2080-2099 to 1980-1999
Dryer Wetter
scenario A1B, IPCC 2007
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Areas of current physical and economic water scarcity
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Sea level rise will impact important production areas
Rice in Bangladesh South Delta
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Impacts on ecosystems
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Main effects on agricultural production
• Decrease of production in certain areas
• Changes in the geography of productions
• Increased variability of production
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Projected yields in Morocco
A: irrigated maize and irrigated seasonal vegetables - B: irrigated fruits and vegetables - C: fodder crops and
vegetables - D: rainfed cereals and legumes - E: rainfed wheat and barley - F: Other rainfed crops.
Irrigated crops
Rainfedcrops
Yield Variation
0%
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Climatic risks for Coffee production in Brazil (Embrapa)
2010 2070 (scenario A2)
Green: low climatic riskWhite: high climatic riskMauve: irrigation necessaryPink: irrigation recommendedYellow: risk of frostBlue: risk of high temperature
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Main impacts of CC on livestock
• Increased risk of heat stress, intensity and frequency
• Availability of water
• Quantity and quality of available and accessible feed
• Modifications in the distribution, intensity and frequency of diseases and parasites (?)
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Cap Verde
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Wild foods
Slovenia
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Productivity trends by 2050
Source: IPCC (2007)
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Impact on Food and Nutrition Security
• Impacts on the most vulnerable countries
• Impacts on the most vulnerable people, including small holders
• Impacts on malnutrition
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What contribution to mitigation?
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Agriculture and Forestry in Global Emissions (IPCC)
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Greenhouse gas emission sources/removals in agriculture
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Emissions of the agricultural sector (IPCC 2007)
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Technical mitigation potential (IPCC 2007)
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Food Systems more efficient and resilient
• More food, in quantity, quality and diversity • Adapt to Climate Change• Contribute to mitigate Climate Change
• More resource efficient: use less land, water, inputs to produce more food sustainably
• More resilient to change and shocks
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Sustainable intensification of crop production
• Better management of water• Integrated nutrient management• Conservation agriculture• Genetic resources• Ecosystems’ functions• Diversification
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Exploitable yield gaps for maize in Africa
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Malaw i(n=4566)
Ethiopia(n=310)
Nigeria(n=2501)
Uganda(n=461)
Mali (n=163) Mozambique(n=508)
Ton
per h
ecta
re
Average national yield Average yield in farm demonstrations
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Rain water harvesting
Zaï pits
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Nutrient management
Bangladesh
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Legumes
Croatia
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Conservation Agriculture
Ghana
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Genetic resourcesLima: International Potato Center
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“Seed systems”
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Seed production in Haiti
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Efficiency in the livestock sector
Gill et al. (2010)Gill et al (2010)
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Death rate of calves
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Relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and output per cow
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Output per cow, kg FPCM per year
kg C
O2-
eq. p
er k
g FP
CM
Pastoral systems
Intensive systems
GHG
Milk
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Biodigestors
Cambodia
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Resilience in pastoral systems
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Resilience in “Industrial” systems
• Heat stress– Buildings (projections)– Management (previsions)
• Feed accessibility– Increased variability of production and
trade– Increased price volatility
• Flexibility
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Diversification
Nepal
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Learning from Shinyanga, Tanzania: Restoring 500,000 ha of degraded grasslands
to higher productivity by adapting traditional Ngitili agro-pastoral management
Crop-Livestock Systems
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Rice-Fish systems
Madagascar
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Grassland & rangeland management
Tunisia
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Agroforestry
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Landscape approach
Rwanda, Nile Basin
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Food chain approaches
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Food losses
Africa(SSA)
Europe
Cereals 19% 31%
Fruits & vegetables
51,6% 46%
Meat 27% 22%
Milk 25% 12%(FAO 2011)
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Cereal lossesAgricultural production
Postharvest handling & storage
Processing & packaging
Distribution
Consumption
Total
Africa (SSA)
6% 8% 3,5% 2% 1% 19%
Europe 2% 4% 0,5% 2% 25% 31%
Field Consumer
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Fruits & vegetables lossesAgricultural production
Postharvest handling & storage
Processing & packaging
Distribution
Consumption
Total
Africa (SSA)
10% 9% 25% 17% 5% 52%
Europe 22% 5% 2% 10% 19% 46%
Field Consumer
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Reduce food lossesMetallic silos in Afghanistan
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Cooking
Ghana
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Increase systemic resilience & efficiencyPolicies, Institutions, Finances
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Manage risks
• monitoring• vulnerability assessment• identification of (ex-ante) damage
reduction measures • early action• Reparation of losses to productive
assets
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Enabling farmers to change
Change of practice
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Investment needs for agriculture in developing countries
Needs
Funding
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Agricultural R&D annual growth rates
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Asia & Pacific Latin America& Caribbean
West Asia &North Africa
Developingcountries
High-incomecountries
Ann
ual g
row
th ra
te (p
erce
ntag
e)
1976-81 1981-91 1991-2000
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Trade for efficiency & resilience
• Link small holders to markets– Infrastructures– Transparency
• International markets- Information, transparency- Price volatility
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Governance
• Need to address comprehensively Food Security and Climate Change, both Adaptation & Mitigation
• At every level, local, national, regional
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Cancun Agreement
• Cancun Adaptation Framework • REDD+ (drivers of deforestation)• Green Climate Fund (balanced
allocation between adaptation and mitigation)
• NAMA’s
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Link Food Security & Climate Change in international Fora
• CFS has requested a study to HLPE on Food Security & Climate Change
• Cancun Adaptation Framework has to include Food Security concerns