climate change and adaptation in asia: key findings of … · climate change and adaptation in...

Climate Change and Adaptation in Asia: Key Findings of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report

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Juan M. Pulhin, Professor and DeanCollege of Forestry and Natural Resources

University of the Philippines Los Baños

Mekong River Commission2nd Mekong Climate Change Forum

6 – 8 October 2014Siem Reap, Cambodia

Outline

Overview of IPCC WG2 Observed and projected climate change in

Asia Sectoral Impacts and Vulnerability Food security Water resources Terrestrial ecosystem Marine and coastal ecosystems

Key Risks and potential for adaptation Towards a climate-resilient pathways

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CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

AR5, IPCC WGII



WG 2 Framework: the solution space 4

IPCC WG2 SPM, 2014

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Chapter 24, Asia: Coverage ‐ 51 countries/regions

Source: IPCC, 2013

6IPCC WG 2 Asia, 2014

Observed and projected changes in annual average temperature in Asia



Observed and projected changes in annual average precipitation in Asia

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IPCC WG 2 Asia, 2014

A wetter and drier Asia

Climate Phenomenon

Asia Southeast Asia

Heat Waves It is likely that the frequency of heat waves has increased in large parts of Asia.

No Specific Observations

Drought More megadroughts occurred in monsoon Asia and wetter conditions prevailed in arid Central Asia monsoon region during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850) compared to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950–1250) (Medium confidence)


Floods Past floods larger than recorded since the 20th century occurred during the past five centuries in eastern Asia (high confidence). In the Near East and India modern large floods are comparable or surpass historical floods in magnitude and/or frequency (medium confidence).


Observations of Past Events Source: IPCC, 2013

Climate Phenomenon

Asia Southeast Asia

Precipitation Future increase in precipitation extremes related to the monsoon is very likely in East Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia.

Future increase in precipitation extremes related to the monsoon is very likely in

Southeast Asia.Indian monsoon rainfall is projected to increase. For the East Asian summer monsoon, both monsoon circulation and rainfall are projected to increase.

There is low confidence in projections of future changes in the Madden‐Julian Oscillation due to the poor skill in model simulations of this intraseasonal phenomenon and the

sensitivity to ocean warming patterns. Future projections of regional climate extremes in Southeast Asia are therefore of low confidence.Reduced precipitation in Indonesia in Jul‐Oct due to pattern of Indian Ocean warming (RCP 4.5 or higher end scenarios)

El Niño‐Southern Oscillation

Natural modulations of the variance and spatial pattern of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation are so large that confidence in any projected change for the 21st

century remains low. Confidence is low in changes in climate impacts for most of Asia.

Low Confidence in any projected change for the 21st century.

Future Projections Source: IPCC, 2013

• Projected climate change (based on RCPs) in AR5 is similarto AR4 in both patterns and magnitude, after accounting forscenario differences.

• Projections of global mean sea level rise has increased inconfidence since the AR4 because of the improved physicalunderstanding of the components of sea level, the improvedagreement of process-based models with observations, and theinclusion of ice-sheet dynamical changes.

• Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21stcentury. Under all RCP scenarios the rate of sea level rise willvery likely exceed that observed during 1971–2010 due toincreased ocean warming and increased loss of mass fromglaciers and ice sheets.

Sea Level Rise (IPCC 2013) Source: IPCC, 2013

Global mean sea level rise for 2081−2100 relative to 1986–2005 will likely be in the following ranges:

• 0.26 to 0.55 m (RCP2.6)• 0.32 to 0.63 m (RCP4.5)• 0.33 to 0.63 m (RCP6.0)• 0.45 to 0.82 m (RCP8.5) – medium confidence

Sea level rise will not be uniform. By the end of the 21st century, it is very likely that sea level will rise in more than about 95% of the ocean area.

About 70% of the coastlines worldwide are projected to experience sea level change within 20% of the global mean sea level change.

Sea Level Rise (IPCC 2013) Source: IPCC, 2013

Risk Level withCurrent Adaptation

Risk LevelVeryLow Med

VeryHigh

4°C

2°C

Present

Long Term(2080-2100)

Near Term (2030-2040)

Assessing risk

Potential forAdditional Adaptation to Reduce Risk

Risk Level withHigh Adaptation

Risk Level withCurrent Adaptation

Potential forAdditional Adaptation to Reduce Risk

Risk Level withHigh Adaptation

Risk-LevelVeryLow Med

VeryHigh

4°C2°C

Present

Long Term(2080-2100)

Near Term (2030-2040)

Flood Heat DroughtWater

Crops

Disease

Reefs

Flood Coasts

Heat

Flood

Water

Livelihoods

Coasts

Wildfire Heat Flood

Ecosystems Health Rate

Water

Food

DiseaseCoasts

Cor

al

Fis

herie

s



Food Security

The impacts of climate change will vary by region with many regions to experience a decline in productivity (medium confidence)Most models show that higher

temperatures will lead to lower rice yields as a result of shorter growing periods.

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Food Security

There are a number of regions that are already near the heat stress limits for rice.

However, CO2 fertilization may at least in part offset yield losses in rice and other crops.

Agricultural output has been noticeably impacted by intensified floods and droughts which caused almost 90% of rice production losses in Cambodia during 1996-2001 (Brooks and Adger, 2003; MRC, 2009).

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Food Security

Sea level rise will inundate low lying areas and will especially affect rice growing regions. There are many potential adaptation

strategies being practiced and being proposed but research studies on their effectiveness are still few.

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Water Resources

Water scarcity is expected to be a major challenge for most of the region due to increased water demand and lack of good management (medium confidence) Water resources are important in Asia

because of the massive population and vary among regions and seasons.

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Terrestrial Ecosystems

Terrestrial systems in many parts of Asia have responded to recent climate change with shifts in the phenologies, growth rates, and the distributions of plant species, and permafrost degradation

The projected changes in climate during the 21st Century will increase these impacts (high confidence)

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Boreal trees will likely invade treeless arctic vegetation, while evergreen conifers will likely invade deciduous larch forest.

Large changes may also occur in arid and semiarid areas, but uncertainties in precipitation projections make these more difficult to predict.

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The impacts of projected climate changes on the vegetation of the lowland tropics are currently poorly understood.

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SPM 5: Many species cannot move fast enough

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IPCC WG2 SPM, 2014



Coastal and Marine

Coastal and marine systems in Asia are under increasing stress from both climatic and non-climatic drivers (high confidence)

Vietnam and Cambodia are two of the countries most vulnerable to climate impacts on fisheries (Allison et al., 2009; Halls, 2009).

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Coastal and Marine

In the Asian Arctic, rising sea-levels are expected to interact with projected changes in permafrost and the length of the ice-free season to cause increased rates of coastal erosion (high agreement, medium evidence).

Mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass beds may decline unless they can move inland, while coastal freshwater swamps and marshes will be vulnerableto saltwater intrusion with rising sea-levels (include Mekong delta).

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Coastal and Marine

Widespread damage to coral reefs correlated with episodes of high sea-surface temperature has been reported in recent decades

There is high confidence that damage to reefs will increase during the 21st

century as a result of both warming and ocean acidification.

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Key risks and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation

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Key Risk AdaptationIssues and Prospects

Increase risk of crop failure and lower crop production could lead to food insecurity in Asia (medium confidence)

Autonomous adaptation of farmers on-going in many parts of Asia.

Time Frame Risk for Current and high

adaptation

Very Low Medium Very high

Present

Near-term

2°C

Long-term(2080-2100)

4°C




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Key Risk Adaptation Issues and Prospects

Water shortage in arid areas of Asia (medium confidence)

Limited capacity for water resource adaptation; options include developing water saving technology, changing drought-resilient crops, building more water reservoir


adaptationVery Low Medium Very

high

Present

Near-term

2°C


4°C




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Increased flooding leading to widespreaddamage to infrastructure and settlements in Asia (medium confidence)

Adaptation measures includeextreme weather exposure reduction via effective land-use planning, selective relocation and structural measures; reduction in the vulnerability of lifeline infrastructure and services (water, energy, waste management, food, biomass, mobility, local ecosystems and telecommunications) and measures to assist vulnerable sectors and households.



high

Present

Near-term

2°C


4°C




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Increased risk of flood related deaths, injuries, infectious diseases and mental disorders (medium confidence)

Disaster preparednessincluding early-warning systems and local coping strategies.



high

Present

Near-term

2°C


4°C




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Increased risk of health-related mortality (high confidence)

Heat health-warning systems, urban planning to reduce heat islands and improvement of built environment.



high

Present

Near-term

2°C


4°C




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Increased risk of drought-related water and food shortage causing malnutrition (high confidence)

Disaster preparedness including early-warning systems and local coping strategies.



high

Present

Near-term

2°C


4°C




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Increased risk of water and vector-bornediseases (medium confidence)

Early-warning systems, vector control programs, water management and sanitation programs.



high

Present

Near-term

2°C


4°C




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Exacerbated poverty, inequalities and new vulnerabilities (high confidence)

Insufficient emphasis and limited understanding on urban poverty, interaction between livelihoods, poverty and climate change.



high

Present

Near-term

2°C


4°C




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Coral reef decline in Asia (highconfidence)

The limited adaptation options include minimizing additional stresses in marine protected areas sited where sea surface temperatures are expected to change least and reef resilience is expected to be highest.



high

Present

Near-term

2°C


4°C




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Mountain top extinctions in Asia (highconfidence)

Adaptation options are limited. Reducing non-climate impacts and maximizing habitat connectivity will reduce risks to some extent, while assisted migration maybe practical for some species.



high

Present

Near-term

2°C


4°C



Building Long-Term Resilience from Tropical Cyclone Disasters

Tropical cyclone frequency is likely to decrease or remain unchanged over the 21st century, while intensity (i.e. maximum wind speed and rainfall rates) is likely to increase (AR5 WG1)

Densely populated Asian deltas, including the Mekong delta, are particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones due to their large population density

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Inland and storm surge flooding (cyclone Nargis) in Irrawaddy Delta and to the east of Myanmar

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Building Long-Term Resilience from Tropical Cyclone Disasters

Preparation for extreme tropical cyclone events through improved governance and development to reduce their impacts provides an avenue for building resilience to longer-term changes associated with climate change

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Where do want to go?38

IPCC WG2 SPM, 2014



Possible Resilient Pathways for LMB

Transboundary adaptation planning and management with the following components: a shared climate projection across the LMB improved coordination among adaptation

stakeholders and sharing of best practices across countries;

mainstreaming climate change adaptation into national and sub-national development plans with proper translation from national adaptation strategies into local action plans;

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integration of transboundary policy recommendations into national climate change plans and policies;

integration of adaptation strategies on a landscape scale between ministries and different levels of government within a country (MRC, 2009; Lian and Bhullar, 2011; Lebel et al., 2012; Kranz et al., 2010)

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A multi-stakeholder Regional Adaptation Action Network to scale up and improve mainstreaming of adaptation through tangible actions following the theory and successful examples of the Global Action Networks (GANs) (Waddell, 2005; Waddell and Khagram, 2007; WCD, 2000; GAVI, 2011; Schaffer and Ding, 2012) .

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Thank you

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