climate change: an inter-disciplinary approach to problem solving (aoss 480 // nre 480) richard b....
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. RoodCell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2015February 5, 2015
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Class Information and News
• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15
– Record of course
• Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site– http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
• A tumbler site to help me remember– http://openclimate.tumblr.com/
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Resources and Recommended Reading
• Rood’s Series on Bumps and Wiggles
• Past, Present and Future of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Srokosz et al., BAMS, 2012
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Outline: Class 9, Winter 2015
• Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean
• “Internal” variability (Redux)– Analysis
• How weather and climate is organized– Physical geography– Rotation of Earth
• Climate variability and change
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Energy doesn’t just come and go
• The atmosphere and ocean are fluids. The horizontal distribution of energy, causes these fluids to move. That is, weather and ocean currents.
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From Building the Radiative BalanceRedistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc.
SURFACE
2) Then it is redistributed by the atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, life.
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
ATMOSPHERECLOUD
RS
1) The absorbed solar energy is converted to terrestrial thermal
energy.
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Consider the Distribution of EnergyLatitudinal dependence of heating and cooling
SURFACE
ATMOSPHERECLOUD
Equator(On average heating)
North Pole(Cooling)
South Pole(Cooling)
Because of tilt of Earth, Solar Radiation is absorbed preferentially at the Equator (low latitudes).
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
After the redistribution of energy, the emission of infrared radiation from the Earth is ~ equal from all latitudes.
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Transfer of heat north and south is an important element of the climate at the Earth’s surface.
Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc.
SURFACE
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
ATMOSPHERECLOUD
heat is moved to poles
cool is moved towards equator cool is moved towards equator
This is a transfer. Both ocean and atmosphere are important
This predisposition for parts of the globe to be warm and parts of the globe to be cold means that measuring global warming is difficult. Some parts of the world could, in fact, get cooler because this warm and cool pattern could be changed. What is a scenario for record cold temperatures in northern Mexico?
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Transport of heat poleward by atmosphere and oceans
• This is an important part of the climate system.
• One could stand back far enough in space, average over time, and perhaps average this away.
• This is, however, weather ... and weather is how we feel the climate day to day– It will change because we are changing the
distribution of heating and increasing the energy in the system.
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Internal Variability
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Sources of internal variability
• There is “natural” variability. – Solar variability– Volcanic activity– Internal “dynamics”
• Atmosphere - Weather
• Ocean
• Atmosphere-ocean interactions
• Atmosphere-ocean-land-ice interactions
• “Natural” does not mean that these modes of variability remain constant as the climate changes. Separation of “natural” and “human-caused.”
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Some Aspects of Climate Variability
• One of the ways to think about climate variability is to think about persistent patterns of weather– Rainy periods
• Floods
– Dry periods• Droughts
• During these times the weather for a region does not appear random – it perhaps appears relentless
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An example of variability: Seasons
Tem
pera
ture
Winter WinterSummer
Cold ColdWarm
Rain comes in
fronts
Rain comes in thunderstorms
Mes
sy
Mes
syForced variability
responding to solar heating
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Wave Motion and Climate
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Year-to-Year Changes in Winter TemperaturesDifferences Relative to 1961-1990 Average
Late 1970s
2006-2011
From Jim Hurrell
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Modes of Climate Variability
• Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices• There are modes of internal variability in the
climate system which cause global changes.– El Niño – La Niña
• What is El Niño
– North Atlantic Oscillation• Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation
– Annular Mode– Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic
– Pacific Decadal Oscillation
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What is short-term and long-term?
25 years 50 years 75 years 100 years0 years
ENERGY SECURITY
ECONOMYCLIMATE CHANGE
Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ...
LONGSHORT
There are short-term issues important to climate change.
Election time
scales
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Time Scales of Variability
25 years 50 years 75 years 100 years0 years
El Niño / La Niña
Arctic Oscillation
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
LONGSHORT
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Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction: El-Niño
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Changes during El Niño
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Some good El Niño Information
• NOAA Climate Prediction: Current El Niño / La Niña
• NOAA CPC: Excellent slides on El Niño
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GISS Temperature 2002
1997-98 El Niño
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January 2011 Temperature Anomalies
El Niño / La Niña Signal
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Modes of Climate Variability
• Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices• There are modes of internal variability in the
climate system which cause global changes.– El Niño – La Niña
• What is El Niño
– North Atlantic Oscillation• Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation
– Annular Mode– Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic
– Pacific Decadal Oscillation
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North Atlantic Oscillation
Positive PhaseU.S. East, Mild and Wet
Europe North, Warm and WetCanada North & Greenland, Cold and Dry
Negative PhaseU.S. East, Cold Air Outbreaks, Snow (dry)
Europe North, Cold; South, WetGreenland, Warm
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January 2011 Temperature Anomalies
Arctic OscillationSignal
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Modes of Climate Variability
• Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices• There are modes of internal variability in the
climate system which cause global changes.– El Niño – La Niña
• What is El Niño
– North Atlantic Oscillation• Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation
– Annular Mode– Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic
– Pacific Decadal Oscillation
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Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Does the Pacific Decadal Oscillation operate regularly lasting 20-30 years, and does southern California experience droughts during that period?
• The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is one of several “oscillations” that are important to weather and climate.
• Some attributes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
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Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Basics
Better version of figure from JISAO
Colors: Sea Surface Temperature difference from long term average.Arrows: Stress on the ocean surface caused by winds
Warm here Cool here
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January 2011 Temperature Anomalies
Pacific Decadal Oscillation Signal
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Some information on Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Joint Institute for Study of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO): – Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Climate Prediction Center (CPC): – 90 Day Outlook Summary– Weather and Climate Linkage
• National Climatic Data Center (NCDC):– Decadal Oscillations
• Review Paper from Rood Class References– Mantua and Hare (2002) J of Oceanography
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How Weather is Organized
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Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100
2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990.Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
IPCC 2001
Heat CapacityHeat Transport Land
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Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100
2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990.Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
IPCC 2001
Heat CapacityHeat Transport Ocean
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Atmosphere
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Hurricanes and heat: Sea Surface Temperature
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Weather Moves Heat from Tropics to the Poles
HURRICANES
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Mid-latitude cyclones & Heat
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Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100
2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990.Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
IPCC 2001
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Ocean
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Ocean Surface Currents(From Steven Dutch, U Wisconsin, Green Bay)
Good Material at National Earth Science Teachers Association
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The Thermohaline Circulation (THC) (Global, organized circulation in the ocean)
(The “conveyer belt”, “rivers” within the ocean)
Where there is localized
exchange of water between
the surface and the deep
ocean (convection)
Warm, surface currents.
Cold, bottom currents.
Green shading, high saltBlue shading, low salt
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In Class / Groups / Discussion
• Thermohaline Circulation – Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
• In groups discuss Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation / Gulf Stream– How does it affect climate?– How does variability affect climate?
• Consider:– Temperature, Ice Melting, Wind, Saltiness,
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Climate variability and change
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Time Scales of Variability
25 years 50 years 75 years 100 years0 years
El Niño / La Niña
Arctic Oscillation
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
LONGSHORT
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January 2011 Temperature Anomalies
El Niño / La Niña Signal
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GISS Temperature 2002
1997-98 El Niño
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Roles of Uncertainty / Variability at Different TimesHawkins and Sutton, 2009
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Summary: Class 9, Winter 2015
• Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean– Greenhouse gases change energy balance– Atmosphere and oceans transport energy
• “Internal” variability (Redux)– Modes of internal variability organize weather
in spatial and temporal patterns
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Summary: Class 9, Winter 2015
• How weather and climate is organized– Rotation of Earth– Location of land-water– Tilt of axis– Thermal characteristics
• Climate variability and change– Climate change occurs on a background of
variability.– We can diagnose the variability, it is more difficult
to predict.
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Outline: Class 9, Winter 2015
• Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean
• “Internal” variability (Redux)– Analysis
• How weather and climate is organized– Physical geography– Rotation of Earth
• Climate variability and change
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Projects
• Abrupt climate change
• Consequences of rapid change in the Arctic
• Analysis of the warming “hiatus”