climate change: always the bridesmaid?

Climate Change:Always the Bridesmaid?

Hadi Dowlatabadi

Canada Research Chair, UBC

Climate Decision-Making Center, CMU

University Fellow, RFF

December 7 2006

[email protected]

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Outline

• Is climate change the primary concern of anyone but the climate impacts community?

• Do we have decision-aiding approaches that are climate change capable?

NO! But all we want is better decisions.

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Views of Climate

• Context

• Determinant

• Hazard

• Resource

Source: Riebsame, 1985

CONTROL+ALT+DELETE

Source: www.impawards.com/.../ wag_the_dog_ver3.jpg http://samiam.com/uploaded_images/an-inconvenient-truth-702835.jpg

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507.12.2006

Australian Agri-drought

• 1997 we completed a project on adaptation in Australian agriculture.

• We expected ENSO effects to have made the sector particularly aware of adaptation issues.

• We expected adaptation to climate change to be a primary driver of their choices…

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0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Normalized Precipitation Yield t/Ha

Rainfall & Wheat yield:1950-1990

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Rainfall, Yield, and profits:1950-1990

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Normalized Precipitation Yield t/Ha Farming Return

Coefficient of variation higher in profit than yield

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807.12.2006

Multi-stress

• Weather

• Internal markets

• External markets

• C+N cycle disturbances

• Pests

• Soil & water degradation

• Financial & currency markets

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907.12.2006

Multi-Responses

• Storage

• Insurance

• Engineering

• Management

• Land use

• R&D

• Incentives

• Disaster Aid

• …

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Characterizing Interactions

Stresses

Responses

Weather Internal Markets

Export Markets

C & N Cycles

disturbance

Pests Soil & Water

Degradation

Response time/

frequency

Storage Low Low Low - Low - < 2 years

Insurance Low Low Low - Low - 1 year

Engineering Low - - - - High < 10 years

Management High Low Low High High High > 1 year

Land-use allocation

High - - Low Low Low > 25 years

R & D Low Low Low Low Low Low 5 to 25 years

Incentives Low High High - - High 1 per 5 years

Disaster Aid Low - - - - - 1 per 10 years

Impact 0.3 1 1 0.2 0.5 1

Frequency 1 10 - 20 1 > 100

Source: D. Greatz, H. Dowlatabadi, M. Kandlikar, and J. Risbey (1998)

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Sea Level Rise

July 25 1995

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0

40

80

120

160

200

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Location Along the Shore (m)

Shorefront Wannabe SF A long wait Not in your life On the other side of the Tracks

homes are arrayed to enjoy the view ...

Housing modelinformation

from tax rolls

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1407.12.2006

Storm Surges + Sea Level Rise

Storm reach wrt…

Time2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000

50

100

150

200

Key SLRNo SLRSLR

Storm reach wrt…

Time2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000

50

100

150

200

Key SLRNo SLRSLR

Storm model information from

tide gauges

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Impacts from SLR

• We only simulate 50 years -- before there is inundation.

• But during this time there will be many storms.

• Subsequent to each storm homeowners decide about repairs, relocation, etc.

• Household level decision-making is simulated using patterns of insurance claims in combination with: assumptions about homeowner risk aversion, developer motivations, and a simple model of the real estate market.

• We run many simulation runs in order to get representative distributions of storm events over 50 years.

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damage due to SLR and STORMS

Inundationdamage

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

$ 106 discounted cumulative damage (50 yrs)

Cum

ulat

ive

Prob

abil

ity

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1707.12.2006

damage With & Without Rebuilding Regulations

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

$ 106 discounted cumulative damage (50 yrs)

Cum

ulat

ive

Prob

abil

ity

Source: West, J. J., H. Dowlatabadi, et al. (2001). "Storms, investor decisions, and the economic impacts of sea level rise." Climatic Change 48: 317-42.

Source: www.geo.arizona.edu/.../ slr_usafl_3meter_lg.htm

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2007.12.2006

Why Arctic Communities?

• Expected to experience the greatest climate change,

– measured in terms of absolute temperature change and moisture transport.

• Have similar current challenges to most developing countries,

– with the exception of affiliation with source of funding.

• Access!

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2107.12.2006

Demography & Economy

• 26,000 people

– 85% Inuit

– 56% under 25 yr

• 350,000 km2 of land

– 23 communities

• Territorial budget of 960M

– 80% transferred from Federal Government

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2207.12.2006

This talk

• Context

– Health

– Education

– Culture

– Economy

• Climate Change

– Temperature

– Sea ice

– Sea level

• Opportunities

– Awareness

– Capacity to respond

– …

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Health

• The Inuit & First Nations suffer more than twice the national average in:

– Infant mortality,

– Lung cancer,

– Respiratory illnesses,

– Unintentional injury,

– Disability,

– Suicide.

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Education

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Less than Grade 9

High School

HS Certificate

Trade

University

University Degree CanadaNunavut

Source: Statistics Canada

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Ethnicity

Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP.

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Oil & Gas


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The Arctic Front

Based on: mean air mass position: Li, S.M., R.W. Talbot, L.A. Barrie, R.C. Harriss, C.I. Davidson and J.-L. Jaffrezo, 1993. Seasonal and geographical variations of methane sulphanic acid in the Arctic troposphere. Atmos. Environ. 27A: 3011-3024.

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2807.12.2006

NOx Emissions

Based on: Benkovitz, C.M., T.M. Schultz, J.M. Pacyna, L. Tarrason, J. Dignon, E.C. Voldner, P.A. Spiro, A.L. Jernnifer and T.E. Graedel, 1995. Gridded inventories of anthropogenic emissions of sulfur and nitrogen. J. geophys. Res. 101: 29239.

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Lead Emissions

Based on: Pacyna, J.M., B.D. Shin and P. Pacyna, 1993b. Global emissions of lead. Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada, Ottawa.

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Ocean Currents

Based on: Macdonald, R.W. and J.M. Bewers, 1996. Contaminants in the arctic marine environment: priorities for protection. ICES J. mar. Sci. 53: 537-563.

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DIET POPs

Based on: Hobson, K.A. and H.E. Welch, 1992. Determination of trophic relationships within a high Arctic marine food web using delta-13C and delta-15N analysis. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 84: 9-18. Hargrave, B.T., 1994. Sources and sinks of organochlorines in the Arctic marine food web. In: J.L. Murray and R.G. Shearer (eds). Synopsis of research conducted under the 1993/94 Northern Contaminants Program, pp. 178-184. Indian and Northern Affairs Canada, Ottawa, Environmental Studies 72, 459p.

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137Cs(Bq/m2)

Estimated from bomb fallout

and precipitation


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Average Cs137 in diet

(for 100Bq/m2 dispersion)


Drivers of Development

1850 1900 1950 2000

subsistencebio-resource trade

religion/schoolssmall-scale mininglarge-scale mining

oil and gasmilitary

scientific researchservices

government

WWII

Source: www.keepwintercool.org/ earthimage.html

Partner communitiesOne of the routes for the NW Passage

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CLIMATESUMMARY/2003/IMAGES/annual.1954-2003.tchange.png

From: http://www.uwgb.edu/dutchs/graphic0/seismol/canisos.gif

PreDorset

Coping with Sea Level Change in 4000 yrs

ContemporaryHistoricDorsetSource: Susan D.M. Rowley

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http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.jpg

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Regional Patterns Differ

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg

www.sfu.ca/.../ physical%20ocean.html

Source: www.geophysics.dias.ie/. ../slave_lakes.html

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Climate vulnerability sets priorities

Sensitivity to climate change

Community priorities

Models of community adaptation:

Response

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All vulnerabilities set priorities

Sensitivity to multiple stresses




Response

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Response

Community control

Local control is limited





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Successful Responses

A fuller pictureModels of community adaptation:

Adaptive Capacity

Community control




External resources

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Hypotheses

• H0: Communities identify risks from climate

change as a special priority.

• H1a: Communities enjoy control commensurate

with their priorities.

• H1b: Communities enjoy control over matters

involving climate change adaptation.

• H2: CEDO priorities and resources match needs

for broader community development planning.

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5207.12.2006

Nunavut Economic Development Strategy (NEDS) 2003

THE LAND

- Respecting the land

- Maintaining our mixed economy

- Building on the knowledge of our Elders

OUR PEOPLE

- Economic development for youth

- Education and training

- Basic needs: housing, hospitals and schools

OUR COMMUNITY ECONOMIES

- Community capacity building and organizational development

- Small and Inuit business development

- Building the knowledge base

OUR TERRITORIAL ECONOMY

- Putting the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement to work

- Sector development and support systems

- Infrastructure: from buildings to broadband

- Accessing the global marketplace

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Method

• NEDS 2003

– 143 Action Items (excluding 24 implementation items)

• NEDA priority identification

• Our informed judgments about broader community priorities, sensitivity and levels of control

Caveats:

• Action items as units of observation.

• NEDS as reflection of priorities

– broad guiding principles

– 4 forms of capital: E,H,S,P

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High Community Priorities

THE LAND

- Respecting the land

o Maintaining our mixed economy

- Building on the knowledge of our Elders

OUR PEOPLE

o Economic development for youth

o Education and training

o Basic needs: housing, hospitals and schools

OUR COMMUNITY ECONOMIES

o Community capacity building and organizational development

- Small and Inuit business development

- Building the knowledge base

OUR TERRITORIAL ECONOMY

- Putting the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement to work

- Sector development and support systems

- Infrastructure: from buildings to broadband

- Accessing the global marketplace

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CharacterizingCommunity Priorities

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Community Priorities

Actions

None Low Medium High

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Climate Sensitivity & Community Priority

0

8

16

24

32

40

48


Climate Sensivity

Action Items

Not a priority Low priority Medium priority High priority

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Community control




High Community priorities9%

91%

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Characterizing Community Control

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Community Control

Number of Action ItemsNone Low Medium High

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Community Control & Community Priority

0

8

16

24

32

40

48



Number of Action Items

No Control Low Control Medium Control High Control

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Community Control &Climate Sensitivity

0

8

16

24

32

40

48


Climate Sensitivity


No Control Low Control Medium Control High Control

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Characterizing Community Priorities

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Number of Action ItemsNone Low Medium High

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Characterizing Community & CEDO Priorities

0

20

40

60

80

100

Community CEDO

Priorities



“Make the implementation of the community development plan the primary task of the community economic developer.”

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Institutional Challenge

XH0: Communities identify risks from climate

change as a special priority.

XH1a: Communities enjoy control

commensurate with their priorities.

XH1b: Communities enjoy control over matters

involving climate change adaptation.

XH2: CEDO priorities and resources match

needs for broader community development planning

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COMMUNITY

ClimateChanges

Policies

ResourceDevelopment

PopulationGrowth

Pollution &Contaminants

Values

Investment &Funding

Technology

Climate change Is not a separable focus of effort

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Adaptation within existing priorities

• Basic needs of the community are not being met. Their priorities are: employment, housing, health and education.

• Response to climate change can aggravate or help to resolve these primary concerns.

• Adaptation adds to the uncertainty of strategies to achieve planning goals.

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Conventional strategic planning is not a shared concept

• Conventional strategic planning relies on a shared understanding of:

– Long-term;

– Risk;

– Uncertainty;

– Options & opportunities.

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Clues to a differentperspective on planning

• Cultural history

– Comfort with short-term adaptation and uncertainty

– Knowledge based on observations and experience

– Ways of gathering information and using it in decision-making (e.g. Parlee et al.)

• Perceptions of risks (e.g. Furgal et al.)

• Trade-offs: valuation, acceptability, frame of experience

• Values: recalibration given choices (Tribe), evolving culture

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Planning within the context of Inuit values

• Basic differences in values and perceptions need to be characterized and incorporated into decision aids.

• Tools for use in Nunavut need to reflect the key differences critical to strategic planning and adaptive management …

Col

lect

ive

deci

sion

-mak

ing

Agency

Limited detection

Imperfect knowledge

Values that change with contexts/time.

Blunt mechanisms for realizing goals

...we perceive changes in our environment,

...evaluate various options,

...implement achosen strategy,

Evaluation & Feedback

Human

... attribute their origin & project their future trends,

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Summary

• Few decisions hinge on climate alone AND what we do is rarely optimal.

• But climate sets the context and concern about change AND allows us to ask: what are we doing and why? Creating an opening for doing better.

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Acknowledgements

Thanks to:

• Lara Whitley-Binder & the Climate Impacts Group for inviting me here.

• Michelle Boyle, Dean Graetz, Milind Kandlikar, Mitch Small, James Risbey & Jason West who are co-authors on much of what has been presented here.

• US National Science Foundation, Canada Research Chairs, Canadian Foundation for Innovation, Natural Resources Canada, Environment Canada, Resources for the Future, Electric Power Research Institute, Exxon-Mobil Education Foundation and Social and Humanities Research Council for financial support.

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Reported cases of Dengue 1980-96

Source: US National Assessment

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BioticPhysical

Effects from each of these changes occur in… Effects from each of these changes occur in… multiple dimensionsmultiple dimensions

Economic Societal

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circumpolar

regional

community

… and at multiple scales global

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Imported food

Infrastructure

Employment / Income

Traditional diet

# and size of communities

Human health

Harvest species

Bioaccumulation

Ecosystem and species composition

Traditional culture loss

Local land and water pollution

Internal pollution

Hydrological pattern changes

Swamps, slumping, erosion

Access

Resource exploitation

Northward shift of biomes and treeline Permafrost thaw

Sea/river ice melt

PHYSICAL BIOTIC

SOCIETAL ECONOMIC

CIRCUMPOLAR

COMMUNITY

CLIMATE CHANGE

EXTERNAL POLLUTION

RESOURCE COMPANIES

EXTERNAL INVESTMENT

PEOPLE

+ +

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

- +

+

-

REGIONAL

TECHNOLOGY

+ +

Education

© M. Boyle 2003

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Partysympatory Methods

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The Stones Have it

• We need to understand climate change

• Imbedded in a broader context of change

• Evaluated by people whose values and means change

• …

Source:http://www.mick-jagger.com/oldstones.jpg

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A Stochastic EnvironmentWhere Attribution is Difficult

Climate is a stochastic process:

– the climate of any location involves variability in realized weather;

– extreme weather events occur rarely;

– the most visible/memorable impacts are due to these extremes;

– rarity of extreme events makes detection of trends difficult;

– often various impacts are inappropriately attributed to weather extremes.

e.g., A stiff breeze in autumn leads to a shower of dead leaves. But we all recognize that the breeze did not kill the leaves.

Economics is stochastic process:

– the economy of any location involves variability in realized growth;

– extreme economic events occur rarely;

– the most visible/memorable impacts are due to these extremes;

– rarity of extreme events makes detection of trends difficult;

– often various impacts are inappropriately attributed to economic extremes.

e.g., A rise in oil prices leads to a flood of auto-worker layoffs. Yet the public attributes this to high oil prices.

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7907.12.2006

New concepts or Misconceptions?

• Costly emission reductions mean difficulty in reducing adverse health effects.

• A demonstrably good strategy will win approval.

• Regulatory fairness means homogenous actors.

• Expressions of uncertainty aid decision-making.

• AQ co-benefits of GHG reductions are a given.

• …

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Integrated Assessment

• From source to transformation to impacts…

X

• Interventions of all kinds at all points possible…

X

• Characterization of variations across populations…

X

• Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables…

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The problem & its possible solutions

Population

EconomicActivity

Fossil energy&

Land cover

Atmospheric& climate

change

Impacts

Family planning

Curbing greed

Goi

ng g

reen

Engineering the earth

Ada

ptat

ion

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X


X


X


ONLY ADD DETAIL WHERE

VALUE OF INFORMATION IS HIGH

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X


X


X


ONLY ADD DETAIL WHERE

VALUE OF INFORMATION IS HIGH

VALUE OF INFORMATION IS ONLY HIGH

WHERE IT CAN AFFECT POLICY CHOICE

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My Misconceptions

• A demonstrably good strategy will win approval.

¬ NYC and HIV-AIDS

• Expressions of uncertainty & VOI aid decision-making.

¬ NAPAP, Climate Change,…

• Regulatory fairness means homogenous actors.

¬ Adaptive regulations.

• AQ co-benefits of GHG reductions are a given.

¬ UK Climate policy

• Costly emission reductions mean difficulty in reducing adverse health effects.

¬ Partnership with Translink

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Strategy Within What Context?

• Social norms and acceptance:

– Individual or collective responsibility?

– Fatalism or social contract?

• History:

– What regulation/contracts already in place?

– What relationships reign among stakeholders?

…

• And other challenges being faced …

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Next Gen IA


X


X


X


X

• Characterization of other challenges and options

X

• Social and behavioural norms

climate change: always the bridesmaid?

Documents

climate change capable

outlineis climate

climate impacts community

rainfall wheat yield

aware of adaptation

primary concern

primary driver

cmuuniversity fellow