Climate Change Adaptation:Progress on the E3 Network

Bertrand Sudre - Office of the Chief Scientist European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control

5th EIONET workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation30 June 2011

European Environment and Epidemiology E3 network

Improved populatio

n health

Integrate environmental and

epidemiological data

Essentialinformatio

n

Increasedunder-

standing

Public health action

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E3

Inte-grate

Inter-pret

AnalyseMerge

European Environment and Epidemiology : E3 network

Epidemic intelligence and surveillance(ECDC, WHO)

Environmental and land-use data(EEA, SEIS, EDEN,...)

Demographic and socioeconomic data(Eurostat, ...)

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Specific aims of the E3 network

1) Enhancing analytic capability: link environmental data to surveillance data for trends and forecasts / for long-term adaptation to climatic and ecologic changes.

2) Enhancing and accelerating response capability: link environmental data to outbreak scenarios for efficient response.

3) Disseminate information: guide policy, practices, and other interventions.

4) Support public health research: relationship between disease and the environment.

5) Promote advance collaborations: EU agencies and other governmental and non-governmental organizations.

6) Inform and strengthen Member States: activities in preparing for the health impacts of climate change.

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E3

Inte-grate

Inter-pret

AnalyseMerge

Epi intelligence

Water quality

Air quality

Flora

Fauna

Geography/geology

Satellite data

SES data

Demography

Agriculture

Land use

etc.

ID surveillanceMeteorology

Entomology

Features of the E3 networkInfectious diseases epidemiologyDeterminants

Socio economic

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Features and challenges of the E3 network

Provide rapid / easy access to environmental and epidemiologic data

Increase use of available data sets (long term view)

Analyze data across geographic and political boundaries and recognize disease trends

Link exposure-disease data : quantify magnitude of risk

Promote European standards for environmental / epi data

Provide quality control

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Improving EDEN

Re-structure

Re-organise

Data providers

Metadata Builder Metadata Translator Metadata Compiler

E3 metadata processing

Inspire directive march 20079

Disseminate informationE3 Geoportal: prototype

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Category Sub-Category

AdministrativeCountry datasets (EDEN project & Eurostats)European datasets (EDEN project)Populated places

Bioclimatic data

EvapotranspirationTemperatureOther eco-climatic variablesVegetation indices

Climate predictions

CRU Scenario A1 CRU Scenario A2 CRU Scenario B1 CRU Scenario B2 CRU Derived data CRU Observed baseline data WCLIM Estimates

Demography and population Demography and PopulationEden sub-project Eden sub-project

Hydrology Hydrology

Land-Cover use

Landsat bands (GeoCover initiative) Forest species distribution Non Forest species distribution Landsat bands (restricted projects) Global and regional Land cover projects Land cover-use (others)

Livestock Livestock

Meterorological data Precipitation Temperature Other climatic variables

Geological and soil data GeologyTopography and elevation Topography and ElevationHosts and vectors Distributions of species (reservoirs) 

E3 GeoData: Examples of Eco-Climatic determinants

E3 Data: Examples of socio-economic determinants

Category Sub-categoryHealth Childhood mortality

  Health care staff (nurses, physicians,...)  Hospital beds  Infant mortality  Life expectancy  Maternal mortality

...Total  

Infrastructure indicators Electricity

  Roads/transport (air / maritime transportation)  Waste water treatement and capacities

 Water sanitation (Proportion of population using improved drinking-water sources / sanitation facilities)

Total  Population Density

 Country-level population and downscaled projections based on the SRES A1, B1, B2 and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100

  Gridded Global Population based on the SRES B2 Scenario, 1990 and 2025  ...  Number

 Country-level population and downscaled projections based on the SRES A1, B1, B2 and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100

  GPWv3...

Total  Wealth Access to information, TV Radio.

  Education

 Pupils and students in upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education (ISCED 3-4) % of 15-24yo), by NUTS 2 regions

  Share of women among tertiary students  ...   Annual Gross Domestic Product in euro

 Country-level GDP and downscaled projections based on the SRES A1, A2, B1, and B2 marker scenarios, 1990-2100

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E3 Geoportal: prototype

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E3 Proof Of Concept (EPOC) Studies

• Objectives Illustrate how existing or future E3 archive/geo-data can be used in the areas of disease risk study, disease vector mapping and early warning.

• Different potential uses of disease and environmental data. On going assessment of selected diseases :

Leptospirosis Salmonellosis Vector BD : Mosquitoes Tick borne disease : Tick borne encephalitis

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EPOC: Mosquitoes maps

Vector distribution maps, using data held within the E3 archives, are being refined and reprocessed to assess new ways of identifying areas (ecological niche) into which Aedes albopictus may spread from current distributions.

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Predicted future routes of spread of Aedes albopictus : Details of Mahalanobis distance of Global model

(Mahalanobis distance = the environmental distance between the two sets of points adjusted for the covariance of the variables). The MD images are stretched over a range of values to reveal areas of greatest similarity to presently occupied areas. River systems are the likely major spread routes in Europe .

EPOC: Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE)

The risk maps for southern Sweden (held within the E3 archives) are being used to investigate whether independent meteorological and other data sets can provide a basis for predictions.

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WILD BOAR

• Spring temperatures above certain thresholds promote disease transmission between ticks, which is one of several factors increasing disease risk.

• Cumulative measures of spring temperatures between 7 and 10 degrees (cumulative day degrees, CCD) have been shown to differentiate between locations that are at high and low risk in the summer and autumn.

• Ongoing development : evaluation of satellite estimations - prospective validation (intra-annual validation), and this model may have the potential to be used for warning system.

E3 pilot study: TBE Risk and Increase in Spring Temperatures

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Red areas are predicted TBE presence (>+75% probability) NLDA for 1986-2007. Circles are cumulative day degrees values: green =low; yellow=medium; red=high 18

E3 pilot study: TBE Risk and Increase in Spring Temperatures

• It is a prototype forecasting disease model for Europe and climate sensitive diseases

• Apply risk model to other members states in EU

• Promote direct use of risk maps in public health (currently underutilized)

• “knowledge – capacity – expertise” building

• Promote network of excellence : collaboration with external partners and it is an example of interface/application for other projects

E3 pilot studies : ? Added values

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Others related projects

• Decision-making tool for climate change and food and waterborne diseases

• Decision-making tool is based on mathematical models / different climate scenario

• Risk assessment framework : quantitative approach based on a priori model (= combination of successive modules describing the transmission pathway)

• DG CLIMA Clearinghouse website

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DG CLIMA Clearinghouse

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Others related projects

• Decision-making tool for climate change and food and waterborne diseases

• Decision-making tool based on mathematical models / different climate scenario :

• Risk assessment framework : quantitative approach based on a priori model (combination of successive modules describing the transmission pathway)

• DG CLIMA Clearinghouse website

•Health indicators for Climate Change report EEA 2012• Health indicators i.e :

• Aedes albopictus suitability map• Tick borne disease : Borreliosis (Lyme disease)• Food and water borne diseases

• ...

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ECDC : Office of chief scientistHealth Impact Section

Jan SemenzaBertrand SudreJonathan Suk

E3 : ECDC – EDEN project

EPOC studies : ECDC sections - Oxford university – ERGO – AVIA GIS

Impact of Climate Change on Food- and Water-borne Infectious Diseases in EuropeDecision-making tool : RIVM (NL) – DG Clima Clearinghouse - EEA

Health indicators for Climate change report EEA 2012 : ECDC experts – Health Impact Section