Climate change adaptation from start to finish: The case for Colombia

Climate anomolies and production anomolies go

hand in hand

Fuente: Agronet y CRU (http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/cru/)

The challenge: Colombia is a

victim of climate

variability

Maíz

T-Max

T-Max

Rendimiento

Rendimiento

Arroz

And in the long term

• Coffee suitability in the Cauca region.

• Significant changes to 2020, drastic changes to 2050.

• The Cauca case: reduced coffeee growing area and changes in geographic distribution. Some new opportunities.

MECETA

Diagnose the problem

Vulnerability mapping Food security Income

Listen to farmers

• Listen to local perspectives of vulnerability

• Participatory identification of

adaptation options

Girardot - Maize

San Gil - Beans

Ipiales - Potato

A systematic look at impacts and economic costs

across LAC • Detailed crop modelling of

climate impacts across LAC.

• Analysis of social and economic impacts.

• Zoom in analysis at national level.

Crops Food Supply (kcal/capita/day)

Harvested Area (Ha)

Net Production Value (constant

2004-2006 1000 I$)

Contribution to GDP

DSSAT model?

IMPACT? Regional Importance

Soybean 170 41,171,982.60 27,707,066 5 y mixed y

Sugar Cane 383 10,270,087.00 25,072,226 13 n y y

Maize 435 28,633,254.40 6,087,072 5 y y y

Wheat 331 8,988,559.80 3,505,114 1 y y n

Rice 296 5,943,971.40 7,092,796 8 y y y

Beans 90 7,240,355.00 3,602,564 2 y mixed y

Tomatoes 11 342,874.20 4,107,232 1 n n y

Pineapples 5 199,494.00 1,902,269 2 n n y

Bananas 34 1,190,503.00 7,065,053 16 n mixed y

Coffee 3 5,706,389.00 4,986,781 4 n n y

Sorghum 6 2,052,958.80 127,456 0 y y y

Potatoes 34 998,955.20 2,453,723 1 y y y

Onions 7 242,739.60 1,167,699 0 n n y

Oranges, Mandarines

17 1,495,006.20 5,170,592 1 n n y

Palm 64 1,085,119.00 1,078,458 1 n mixed n

Lemons, Limes

3 319,617.20 2,095,406 0 n n y

Grapes 3 547,380.00 4,124,806 1 n n n

Cottonseed Oil

8 1,873,788.60 953,103 0 n mixed n

Apples 5 192,937.80 1,748,896 0 n n n

Nuts 6 574,795.65 943,316 0 n n n

Coconut 21 676,841.00 589,058 0 n n n

Groundnuts 11 534,019.00 515,363 1 y mixed n

Cassava 44 2,747,793.60 2,027,450 3 n y y

Plantains 33 948,142.00 1,572,812 1 n mixed y

Cocoa Beans 3 1,476,678.40 520,235 0 n n n

sunflower 18 2,588,299.00 1,142,205 0 n n n

Yams 12 173,591.40 270,343 2 n n n

Mangoes NA 435,323.20 2,705,656 2 n n n

Prioritise

Practice CBA Quality

1 Silvopastoral Systems 1.5 2.11

2 Efficient Use of Fertilizer 1.4 2.87

3 Improved Forages 1.3 2.85

4 Biogas 1.2 2.36

5 Grass-Legume Association 1.2 2.11

6 Water harvest structure 1.2 2.08

7 Silage, haylage and nutritional blocks 1 2.01

9 Early warning systems 1 1.89

Ranked List of Practices

Act

Objectives

1) Generate capacity to reduce agroclimatic risk: modelling impacts and seasonal forecasting

2) Close the yield gap through climate specific agriculture 3) Evaluate and generate new adapted technologies 4) Evaluate resource efficient production systems (water and carbon

footprints) and establish new incentive structures for their adoption (PES, NAMAs, low carbon development pathways etc.)

In action

9 Partners

52 Municipalities

16 Departments

>800 experimental lots in 20 localities

> 200 on farm participatory experiments

> 40 events with 660 participants and 32 institutions

97 researchers working on the program

> 70 technologies being evaluated

What defines

yield?

51% of yield variation is caused by climate for rice

Matching technologies with

climate in space and time

PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST

33

33

33

Above

Normal

Below

38

31

31

22

27

51

37

33

31

39

33

28

Agroclimatic Seasonal

forecasting

Big opportunities for

reducing water

dependency

Global learning

Leb by

Climate smart villages:

Key agricultural activities

for managing risks

Clim

ate

re

silie

nce

Baseline

Adapted technologies

Adapted technologies

+ Climate-specific

management

Adapted technologies

+ Climate-specific

management +

Seasonal agroclimatic

forecasts

Adapted technologies

+ Climate-specific

management +

Seasonal agroclimatic

forecasts +

Efficient resource use

+ Enabling

environment NAPs and NAMAs

Climate smartness

Adapted technologies

+ Climate-specific

management +

Seasonal agroclimatic

forecasts +

Efficient resource use

Pulling the pieces

together

¡Gracias!

www.aclimatecolombia.org