climate change : a research agenda camilla toulmin iied dublin november 10 th 2011
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Climate change : A research Agenda Camilla Toulmin IIED Dublin November 10 th 2011. IIED: Thumbnail sketch. Established 1971 Non-profit policy “think and do” tank Mission: to build a fairer, more sustainable world, using evidence, action and influence in partnership with others - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Climate change : A research Agenda
Camilla Toulmin IIEDDublin
November 10th 2011
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IIED: Thumbnail sketch
Established 1971 Non-profit policy “think and do” tank Mission: to build a fairer, more sustainable
world, using evidence, action and influence in partnership with others
90+ people London and Edinburgh Turnover 2011 £20m
Actors
Knowledge Spaces
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What we know about climate change CO2 in atmosphere rising faster than anticipated by IPCC
Warming of climate system
Systematic change in rainfall in most regions
Ocean temperatures up + sea level rise
Loss of arctic sea ice extent
More intense & extreme weather events
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Africa - Water and rainfall
Much more intense water cycle Dry areas increasingly drought prone (Northern and
Southern Africa) Increased rainfall + greater flood risk (East Africa) Uncertain rainfall trends West Africa Effects on health, livelihoods, water security – women
and girls worst hit Conflicts and trade-offs: shared river basins, hydro vs
irrigation, herding vs farming, urban water transfers By 2020, >250m will suffer increased w stress
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10
HADLEY
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Africa - Food and farming
Projected reductions in crop yields in dry areas of 50% by 2020
Low lying coastal agriculture at risk from sea-water flooding and salinisation
Shifts in grazing lands, livestock disease, crop-livestock relations
In very few areas, increased temp brings longer growing season, improved farming conditions
Major shifts in land productivity and values eg. irrigated land in dry areas, flood prone lands
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Adapting to climate change – dealing with risk and uncertainty
Building resilience: what’s the difference between risk and uncertainty?
Diversification Farmland and crop contracts Insurance Collective mechanisms Lessons from adaptation to drought Community based adaptation: building local
innovation systems
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Kilimo Salama process
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Re-greening the Sahel
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Ecosystems, forests and biodiversity
Poor depend most on environmental assets + ecosystem services
Economic value of current rate of loss estimated at US$2-5 trillion per year
Increased stress from changes in temp, rainfall accelerate losses
Thresholds and tipping points
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Cities and climate change
Urban regions most at risk of flooding located in middle and low income nations – Nile delta, Gulf of Guinea, Bay of Bengal, cities of Maputo, Beira, Cape Town, Durban, Mumbai, Shanghai
95% global population growth in next 30 years will take place in cities in developing world
Slums 50%+ of urban population and most vulnerable to flooding + land slides
Costs of adaptation to 1m sea-level rise could cost 5-10% of GDP
Current focus on low C investment needs to complement adaptation for most vulnerable
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Urban population in low-elevation coastal zone
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10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
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Politics, conflict and security
Climate change brings significant political consequences due to uneven impact, winners and losers – globally, regionally, within countries
Large scale migration, impoverishment, people seeking new land bring potential for conflict and security
Especially where guns widespread, young men without jobs, limited government capacity = political opportunism
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Unintended consequences of climate policy
Large scale land acquisitions – food and biofuels – environmental and social costs
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New market opportunities?
Agriculture a principal source of GHG emissions – can emission reductions be sold to voluntary/formal C market? Defining/measuring C service Minimising transaction costs Risks of smallholder evictions
REDD+ funding Defining/measuring C service Managing the funds Risks of smallholder evictions
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Lots of questions…..
What does climate resilient development look like?
What best means to support adaptation – funds, channels, level? If accountable govt is key, how to support this?
Any positive opportunities from climate change available to poor?
Does financial crisis make progress easier or harder – can we turn crisis into opportunity?
What impact $200/b oil on agriculture, transport, trade?