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Shahid Farooq

University College of Agriculture,Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan

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“One Day Seminar on “Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture” Layyah - 31-12-2010

Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture

Environment

Surrounding of anything that affects its activities is known as environment.

Components of EnvironmentHydrosphereLithosphereAtmosphere

Atmosphere

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Weather: The state of the atmosphere at a given time and place, with respect to the variables such as temperature, moisture, pressure etc.

Climate: Average weather. Statistical description of mean weather conditions over a period of several years, typically 2-3 decades.

Climatic elements: precipitation, temperature, humidity, sunshine, wind velocity, phenomena such as fog, frost, and hail storms, and other measures of the weather.

Pakistan Climate Pakistan lies in the temperate zone. The

climate is generally arid to semi-arid, characterized by hot summers and cool or cold winters, and wide variations between extremes of temperature at given locations.

Pakistan has recorded one of the highest temperatures in the world, the hottest of which is recorded in Mohenjo-Daro, Sindh, 53.5 °C (128 °F) on 26 May, 2010 it is not only the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, but also the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded in the continent of Asia.

Our Climate is Changing During the last century, the

atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases have continued to rise as a result of human activities.

Global average surface temperatures have increased by about 0.6 °C.

Global average sea level has risen about 15 cm in the previous century and ocean heat content has increased.

“There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities” (IPCC, 2001)

CO2 Concentrations and Global Average Temperatures Will Continue to Rise

• Pre-industrial level: 280 ppm

• Current level: 360 ppm

• Level in 2100: ~700 ppm with large uncertainty

Source: IPCC, 2001

Heat Trapping MechanismThe sunlight mainly consists of 3 types of

radiationsUltraviolet, Visible (PAR) and InfraredInfrared rays are heat rays and if trapped cause

heating of earth and its atmosphere.When IR are emitted from extremely hot bodies

like sun are of short wavelength and can’t be absorbed by CO2 and even glass sheet.

When IR are emitted from less hot bodies like earth surface or bodies present on earth, are of longer wavelength and can be absorbed by CO2 molecules and other gases present in the atmosphere.

Harmful UV rays are absorbed by Ozone layer and most of it don’t reach earth surface.

Green House EffectThe heating of earth’s atmosphere due to

absorption of IR radiations reflected from earth’s surface by green house gases in atmosphere. These gases are CO2, Methane, Nitrogen oxides, Chlorofluorocarbons, water vapors, Ozone etc.

CO2 57%Methane 12%Nitrogen Oxides 6%Chlorofluorocarbons 12%Water vapors and Ozone 5%

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343 W/m2

30%

Greenhouse EffectThe Greenhouse Effect plays a crucial role in

maintaining a life-sustaining environment on the Earth;

If there was no Greenhouse Effect, the average temperature of the Earth would have been -18oC (253°K) instead of the present 15oC;

Human activity is enhancing the natural Greenhouse Effect by adding gases like carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, ozone, etc;

It is this Enhanced Greenhouse Effect which is causing Global Warming and Climate Change.

Who Causes the Climate Change!!

We do!!!We send greenhouse gases to the

atmosphere.Industrial practices; cars, planes,

factories, electricity, and solid trash.Environmental practices; deforestation,

and pollution.

Carbon Dioxide Concentrations

Why Climate is Changing???

DeforestationCultivation of landIndustrializationAutomobile revolutionUrbanizationFossil fuel combustionPopulation ExplosionRefrigeratorsChl0rofluorocarbons (CCl3F, CCl2F2) Rockets, Jets sent into space (Each rocket

releases 75-150 tones of Chlorine).

Role of Agriculture in Climate ChangeEmission of green house gases from cropsCultivation of landIntensive agriculture practicesUse of chemical fertilizersUse of PesticidesRespiration activitiesBurnings of straws, stubbles etc.Decomposition of Organic MatterAnaerobic rice cultivationLivestock activities

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70% of global N20 emissions from artificial fertilizers

50% of global methane emissions from rice paddies

Agricultural Sector

Contributes 20% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions

5% of global CO2

emissions from fossil fuel consumption and biomass burning

Natural Climate Variability

Anthropogenic Influences since the Industrial revolution

CLIMATE CHANGE

Global Warming

Increased Precipitation & its Uneven Distribution

Melting of Glaciers & Snow

Sea level Rise

Increase in Frequency & Intensity of Extreme Weather

Events

IMPACTS

Uncertainty in Water Availability

Decrease in Crop Yields

Newer perspective for sources of energy

Loss of Biodiversity

IncreasedHealth Risks

Spiraling Population

High pace of Industrialization

Increasing use of Fossil Fuels in

Industry & Transport

Deforestation for Agriculture and

Urbanization

Climate ChangeNatural + Anthropogenic

Future Impacts of Climate Change

Severe stress on natural ecosystemsExpansion of Earth’s desertsMelting of the polar ice caps and rise in sea

levelMore extreme weather eventsLoss of BiodiversityMovement of Traditional agriculture areasSpecies extinctionDecrease of human health and living standards

Future Impacts of Climate Change

Food ShortageHeavy floodsIncrease in salinity levelWater loggingDrought, Water shortageAcid RainsOzone Depletion

Millions at Risk (Parry et al., 2001)

15 September 2006 IEF climate conference 22

Impacts of Climate Change on AgricultureBeneficial effects (Lengthen the growing

season in cool areasLoss in yieldDisturbance of cropping patternsUneven distribution of precipitationDangers of floods causing loss of agriculture

cropsWater shortageOccurrence of droughtIncrease in salinityIncrease in water loggingStunted growth due to oxides of nitrogen and

fluorideIncrease in evaporation rate

Adversely affect crops in heat limited areasChange the life cycle of oilseeds and grainsMigration of weedsClimate change may alter the world's habitats

and ecosystems.Life depends on a delicate balance of rainfall,

temperature, and soil type. Global Warming could upset this balance and

seriously endanger many living things.Climate Change used to occur slowly, allowing

plants and animals to adapt to the new environment or move somewhere else. However, if future climate changes occur as rapidly as some scientists predict, plants and animals may not be able to react quickly enough to survive.

Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change

Increased variability of MonsoonMore rapid melting of Glaciers threatening

IRS FlowsShortage of irrigation water for agriculture,

water for industrial and domestic sectors. Increased risks of floods and droughts

Melting of Glaciers in Pakistan

Glaciers are life line of Pakistani rivers. The total water storage in glaciers in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is 2,200 MAF

Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60% to the flows from UIB.

International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) “ (1999): Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”.

World Bank (2006): Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years.

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Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru,

1978

2002

GLOFS in Pakistan

As glaciers retreat, glacial lakes form behind moraine or ice 'dams’. These can breach anytime leading to floods known as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) which can destroy:

property, farms, socio-economic infrastructure and livelihood of mountain people and downstream communities. 

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There is an urgent need to Assess Pakistan’s glaciers, future water

resources and storage requirements in the wake of climate change threat

Take appropriate ameliorative measures well in time to avoid calamites.

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The Water Challenge: Conclusion

Food Security Challenge

Agriculture Systems in Pakistan

Irrigated Agriculture Consumes >90% of fresh water resources and contributes

>80% to national production

Rained and Dry land Agriculture Contributes <30% to national production.

Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change

Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to glacier melt in the wake of climate change

Semi-arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to changes in quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls.

Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerable to climate extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, dust storms, hail storms, sea storms, etc

Impacts of Climate Change on Crops

Shortening of growing season lengthLoss in yieldHeat and water stress at sensitive growth

stages, e.g. flowering, grain initiation stagesIncreased pest/disease incidenceIncreased crop water requirements

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0 1 2 3 4 5

Temperature Change (oC)

Whe

at Y

ield

(kg/

ha)

NorthernMountainous(Humid)

Northern Sub-Mountainous(Sub-humid)

Southern Plains(Semi arid)

Southern Plains(Arid)

Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistanyields in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan

Saving Agriculture from Changing Climate Impacts

Evolution of new genotypes having tolerance against drought, heat and chilling injury,

Water wise cultivation,Aerobic rice cultivationImproved methods of fertilizer applicationReconsider the existing cropping patternsMinimum CultivationHigh efficiency irrigation systemsAvoid crop residue burningReforestation

Saving Agriculture from Changing Climate ImpactsFarm Management PracticesDiversify Crops (More perennial crops)Organic productionGrow restorative cropsEfficient land useDiversify enterprise (More livestock in farm)Land Conservation (Conservational tillage,

zero tillage)Water resources management (efficient

irrigation systems, construction of water storage bodies i.e., dams, ponds etc. to save extra water)

Saving Agriculture from Changing Climate Impacts

Policies matter!!!Construction of damsLining of water courses, Minors and CanalsLaser land levelingImprove N use efficiencyUse of bio fuelsMethane capture

Climate Extreme Events

Heavy floods, Droughts, Heavy precipitation events, Hailstorms, Dust storms, Cyclones, Heat /Cold waves

Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan

2010 Heavy floods in the country which has cause loss of billions of rupees of infrastructure, agriculture and economy.

2009 Karachi received 205 mm of rain at Masroor Airbase and 144 mm at Airport during July. Previous record for rainfall at Karachi is 208

mm occurred in 1977

2007 Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. The temperature

of 48 C was recorded on 9th June, 2007 at Lahore, a record repeated after 78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8th June, 19292003 During early June, a heat wave caused maximum temperature reached 52°C

at Jacobabad on the 5th; normal highs in early June are near 44°C

2001 621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July

Urban Flooding in Lai Nullah ( 23rd July 2001)

Flood Stranded People on the Highway

Land Degradation in Pakistan Water Erosion : 17% Wind Erosion : 8% Salinity and Sodicity : 9% Water logging : 5% Low organic matter (<1%) : 96%

Impacts on Land degradationLand degradation enhanced by climate change

due to Wind and water erosion, as a result of low

and high rainfallWater-logging and Salinity, as a result of

greater evaporation from land surface.

Arial and Soil Temperature of Different Sowing Times

Sowing time Arial Temp C0 Soil Temp C0

25 October 09 27 2310 November 09 23 2125 November 09 20 1910 December 09 21 1625 December 09 19 14

0

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2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9N

o.

of

day

s

25-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov 10-Dec 25-Dec

Sowing Date

Sehar-06

Fsd-08

Lassani-08

AS-2002

TD-1

Effect of wheat genotypes and different sowing dates on days to start germination

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

No.

of D

ays

25-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov 10-Dec 25-Dec

Sowing Date

Sehar-06

Fsd-08

Lasani-08

AS-2002

TD-1

Effect of wheat genotypes and different sowing dates on days to start tillering

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70N

o. o

f ti

ller

s

Sehar-06

FSD-08 Lasani-08

AS-2002

TD-1

Wheat genotypes

25-Oct

10-Nov

25-Nov

10-Dec

25-Dec

Effect of wheat genotypes and different sowing dates on Fertile tillers/m2

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000kg/ha

Sehar-06 FSD-08 Lasani-08 AS-2002 TD-1

Wheat genotype

25-Oct

10-Nov

25-Nov

10-Dec

25-Dec

Effect of wheat genotypes and different sowing dates on economic yield

Is It Too Late to Save Our Planet?!No it is not.We can:Plant Trees.Recycle thingsWalk, ride bikes instead of cars and buses.Save electricity and other sorts of energy.Read and Spread Awareness of Climate Change among

people.Use cars that save energy.Find safe energy sources like the solar energy, to replace

the fuel.Use Energy Star machines; those machines save energy.

What we can do???Reduce Green house gases emissionReduce our demand of energy inOur homesTransportIndustryRide bikes, walk and use less carsTalk to Your Family and FriendsPlant TreesUse Recyclable things

What we can do???When You Buy, Buy Cool StuffUse less water, save itUse less lights in householdWater wise cultivationLess intensive croppingBreed new heat tolerant and water saving

crop varietiesHigh efficiency irrigation systemsMinimum tillage

What we can do???Avoid burning of fossil fuelsUse water efficientlyBe green in your yardSeal and insulate your homeUse Renewable FuelsAct globally, eat locally

Thank you